SPC Outlook Changes in 2026

[Luke Penney]

I've noticed that the SPC website doesn't update everywhere simultaneously, so different parts of it can be mismatched for a time.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Does this cause an automatic upgrade to moderate? I don't see that anything else has changed from 1300Z.

I'm wondering if there might be some recency bias in that forecast? I'm not sure what is more impressive today than Thursday.

The moderate is hail-driven, 45%+CIG2. About 2/3 of the way down this page is a table explaining how the probabilities+new CIG categories correspond to each categorical level:

About SPC Convective Outlooks - NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center