SPC Forecasting changing?

[calvinkaskey]

spc forecasting

A lot of times they also underestimate how widespread the severe weather will be. I've seen that a lot in the northeast here.

 

[Brian Lejeck]

Does anybody know when the SPC will start using the new risk categories?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/01/15/weather-service-proposes-expanded-number-of-severe-weather-risk-categories-in-2014/

It seems like April 3 would have been an enhanced risk day with the new scale.

I attended a storm spotter training class this weekend and the NWS Meteorologist talked about the new SPC "Marginal" and "Enhanced" categorical outlooks. He said the best estimate is that it will be approved for use around September this year.

 

[Matt Hunt]

Why did this surprise you and what don't you like about SW 850s? From my experience, taking the 850s out of context from the 850mb cyclone characteristics, moisture transport, and overall directional shear quality leads to a bad rule of thumb that I see a lot of people repeating.

From what I recall on that day it was in relation to the winds at other levels, leading to little to no directional shear.

 

[TrumanBoyer]

A lot of times they also underestimate how widespread the severe weather will be. I've seen that a lot in the northeast here.

Mid-Atlantic Also. I have chased MANY moderate risks here, where often everything goes up in smoke because of the timing, things don't mix in the right order.

And very often the worst occurs outside the risk area -- you just have to understand that this is a very difficult area to forecast for them.
The Geography is key.

The Ozarks are weird too. The Joplin storm was firing for hours before and after the F5, and as far as I know did not produce so much as another funnel.
Seems a little strange, eh ? Certainly not the only time a storm behaved that way, but I seriously wonder how those hills affected the boundary layer --
bass-ackwards up-slope, etc....

If you live out west and chase there, I fully understand how easily SPC can (seemingly) let you down.
I probably deal with it a lot more than you. I am a realist. Chasing is hard. It is getting easier, but I can only
recall a few days in 30 years (Jeez I'm getting old) that I would consider easy. And when I really think about those few days,
they were actually damned hard days, with a few minutes of sheer GLORY that makes it seem worthwhile.

I rationalize it this way. (I know this is not official, its just how I look at it)

SLIGHT means not much chance at any particular location, but if you chase it smart, you Might get something.
maybe 1 in 30 of these chases I will see something tornadic.
MODERATE means a decent chance that you won't waste your time and money,
but be happy if you get a supercell. Tornado maybe 1 in 12-20.
Even HIGH means that most people living in the risk area won't even see a severe event that day.
maybe the next town down the road, but there are usually Millions in the zone, and
more than 90% won't even know it (until afterward).
For the chaser - might be worth driving for 2 days without sleep.
Still -- the odds for me have been about 1 in 9-10.

Yesterday I stopped checking after I saw the morning storms firing. No cap, precip, clouds will squelch it every time.
I never saw more than a 5% risk of tornadoes listed -- remember that's within 25 miles of any point in the risk area.

NONE of these risk categories are named for their Tornado Potential.
They are named to address the level of risk of severe (usually) Thunderstorms, and they nearly Always get it right.

I'm Just trying to be real here.

I am a STORM CHASER. -- Tornado chaser ?? When the opportunity presents itself.

STAY OPTIMISTIC. There is definitely bad weather ahead. That's a good thing -- right ?

-T