Snowstorm in Southern Montana

[Stephen Levine]

SPC had a discussion earlier this morning about the possibility of up to two inches per hour accum. in this area.
I am wondering if there is anyone on this storm; also wondering if this isn't a bit early for such an event.

 

[Kenny Drake]

When are you talking about? I completely agree that southern Minnesota will have a snowstorm some time in the future. If you're talking about Thur Night/Fri (10/8 - 10/9) I don't buy it. I'm not sure the low currently over the SW will kick out in time. If it doesn't then the moisture won't be there except for a few scattered snow showers/flurries. The only model that really favors this event right now is the GFS. Both the NAM and ECMWF are further south and east with the system. Also, the jet dynamics do not favor a snowstorm type event during this time-frame either. Really what is needed are <0C temps in the TROWAL region. Temp profiles will not be cool enough to support snow Thur Night/Fri until CAA kicks in. The system currently over the upper midwest would be a perfect heavy snow producer if the temps were cool enough. In the US, east of the Rockies, a system needs to be tapped into gulf moisture in order to get good snowfall rates. This time of year it is very difficult to get gulf moisture with sub-zero temps in the snowfall layer. If we keep up this trend of coolness and subtropical jet domination (thank you El Nino) then i'd say by the end of October someone could be in for a snowstorm across the northern half of the country.

EDIT: Sorry Montana != Minnesota. Doh. I should have slept more last night.