Snow In Central Florida?

[Randy Zipser]

The screenshot below is from this morning's (2026-01-29) Area Forecast Discussion from the Tampa Bay, FL NWS office (KTBW). It calls for possible snow flurries in my area (Citrus County) down to the Tampa Bay region late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Not unheard of in these parts, but will be only the fourth time I have ever seen falling frozen precipitation in FL (should this forecast verify). "CAA" stands for "Cold Air Advection" in the last paragraph, for non-meteorologist readers.

 

[Randy Zipser]

Both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of Florida have a relatively rare synoptic setup that can allow light snowfall on the peninsula. In the Tampa Bay area it's called "Gulf effect snowfall" because it is analogous to the "lake effect snow" events in Buffalo, NY, but on a much weaker and smaller-area scale. For this to happen, however, a very large differential is necessary between the sea-surface temperatures (which right now are in the mid-60s F in the Gulf right off the west coast) and overlying air temps (could be down into the low 20s F this weekend)...a 40 degree difference. However, the surface winds need to be just light enough to bring the "overrunning-generated" cloud layer onshore, which is why this happens only near the coast and not further inland. It is quite rare, as I'm in my mid-70s and have only witnessed this setup three times. Everything meteorologically must phase just right; but when it does, the lawns can be completely covered with a light dusting of white. I'll take some pics at daybreak Sunday as soon as it's light enough and post here if it does snow (I'm about 15 miles away from the Gulf coastline).

 

[Dan Robinson]

If I were still able to cover winter weather professionally, this would be a no-brainer trip. There might actually be a high bridge icing risk south of Orlando if precip at sub-29F temps were to occur - that's simply insane to ponder!

 

[Boris Konon]

Of note, in the 21st century, frozen winter precip (snow or sleet) in FL has occurred/been reported 32x now. This is a lot more than prior but of course due to social media and cameras everywhere, you have this increase. The point is snow/sleet in FL is not as uncommon as many may think, but try telling that to the mainstream media! It reminds me of the trope we see every year, "SNOW IN HAWAII!" as if it is unusual AOA 12,000 ft. Doesn't matter where you are in the tropics, it can snow every year at such an elevation.

Two years in a row w/ accumulating snow in FL now, but not unprecedented. It happened in March 1954 and March 1955. The March 1955 1" snowfall in Marianna was on the 28th, remarkably late for this area and the latest on record for snow in FL.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Since becoming interested in winter precip road impacts, I’ve made it a priority to go and observe any events that affect south of the 35-degree latitude, where de-icing capability is limited or not present (salt, plows, etc). Prior to 2021, I was averaging a trip for those once every 3 years. I’ve now done at least one trip there for the past 6 consecutive winter seasons. Quite a stretch they’re having down there this decade!

 

[Bob Schafer]

Orange Beach AL is on the gulf coast just west of Pensacola. The city did, in fact, have many orange groves more than 100 years ago, thus the name, but the orange groves turned out to be unsustainable due to winter freezes.