Slow Start?

[Bill Hark]

Unortunately, this is the reality of chasing. There can be weeks with no decent storms or one must "chase scraps" at the edges of a ridge in the Dakotas or near the Mexican border. Other years, there are several days of chaseable storms. The number of decent days can be augmented if one is willing to go after pretty upslope storms in Colorado and New Mexico. They are beautiful storms, though the tornado potential is often low and I find the forecasting difficult. Typically, there is an extended period of a "death ridge" for a week or two in May. Right now, those who are currently chasing as a part of a tour or a set chasecation are in a difficult position. I generally don't look beyond a week with the GFS and right now, I am not hopeful until at least late next week. Use this time to study forecasting, maybe go to one of Tim vasquez' classes if there are still openings (weathergraphics.com), or work extra hours to save for better days ahead.

Bill Hark

 

[Greg Ansel]

I wonder if the numbers are getting skewed a bit as more and more people are out reporting the same tornado, thus increasing the "total" number of tornadoes. Unless I am missing something, you can see several tornado reports on SPC of what is just one tornado. So with 559 reported tornadoes, are there REALLY 559? Or just 4 or 5 overlapping reports per funnel? If so, then you're talking about 100 or so tornadoes which does seem lower than normal for up to 2nd week of May.

 

[Jeff Duda]

The actual number of tornadoes is probably not increasing, at least not in any statistically significant manner. However, there just aren't enough years of data to make a conclusion either way, but it seems most likely that more tornadoes are being reported since more people are out there spotting and chasing. When the final numbers come in, duplicate reports of tornadoes are dropped. So have 659 tornadoes actually occurred so far this year? Absolutely not. I think SPC usually estimates the actual tornado number to be 30% of what the reports are. However, if you look at this graph which shows how the reporting numbers from this year have so far corresponded to the reports from previous years, it becomes pretty obvious that this year has seen anything but a "slow" start.

 

[kmreid]

Again, I know that there have been opportunities elsewhere but it still seems that my area isn't getting much. I agree with JamesCaruso. For one thing, the temps in my area have been higher than typical (reaching mid 90s in early May) and it has also been pretty dry for spring. I just have a feeling that any ample chances are beginning to dwindle with time. I may add that I am a pessimist by nature so I try to remain realistic/analytical as far as weather goes. Last year really spoiled me I suppose. We may have had an early start but as I glance at long range models, I don't see a whole lot in the way of chasing for me. I know that it is all a toss of a coin in the end, but my husband's schedule limits our chase time and our travel area. We have to chase something that displays a bit of promise. Something with decent looking parameters. Sadly, I realize that you really shouldn't limit your chases but that is just what we are dealing with at the time.

 

[Andy Jackson]

Again, I know that there have been opportunities elsewhere but it still seems that my area isn't getting much. I agree with JamesCaruso. For one thing, the temps in my area have been higher than typical (reaching mid 90s in early May) and it has also been pretty dry for spring. I just have a feeling that any ample chances are beginning to dwindle with time. I may add that I am a pessimist by nature so I try to remain realistic/analytical as far as weather goes. Last year really spoiled me I suppose. We may have had an early start but as I glance at long range models, I don't see a whole lot in the way of chasing for me. I know that it is all a toss of a coin in the end, but my husband's schedule limits our chase time and our travel area. We have to chase something that displays a bit of promise. Something with decent looking parameters. Sadly, I realize that you really shouldn't limit your chases but that is just what we are dealing with at the time.

I was watching some airline crash show last night (real late) and it was about a plane attempting a landing in between severe storms at night. Anyway, it was Little Rock in June so don't give up just yet. Also I'd keep an eye on the Louisiana coast for some severe/waterspouts, just a recommendation.

 

[kmreid]

Thanks for the advice Andy!