This is my first year of official chasing. I have been studying up and getting advice from veteran chasers for almost two years now. My question is, does it seem like this season has been off to a bit of a slow start for the southern plains states? Maybe I should elaborate...I live in Arkansas and so far this spring has been dreadfully slow and not much activity to be had in my area. I do not chase in Arkansas, but rather in OK and TX for the most part. Is it just my anxiety to get out and chase that is clouding my judgement, or has it actually been a bit on the "inactive" side? I realize that it is only early May and there is still time for things to pick up, but being an Arkansas native, it has been unusually dry and warm around here. I would love the insight of others!
-
While Stormtrack has discontinued its hosting of SpotterNetwork support on the forums, keep in mind that support for SpotterNetwork issues is available by emailing [email protected].
Slow Start?
- Thread starter kmreid
- Start date
So far this year Oklahoma has somewhere close to twice the normal number of tornadoes up to this point in the year. The majority of those occurred in April. I'd say, no, the season has gotten off to a normal or fast start. Perhaps since it's now May and the typical peak of tornado activity in Oklahoma with little activity you are perceiving it as being a slow year.
Sean Ramsey
EF4
I can't speak for others but it seems there has been something to chase for the better part of the spring since mid March. I've had over 12 chase days (had lots of luck on 5% days), and that's only in the Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas areas. If I had chased every 5% day, I'd have a bunch more days under my belt. Right now as far as higher risk days there hasn't been a ton of them, but you can expect a few between now and then end of the month. Later this month the action will move northward, where there are plenty of chases to be had. Hang in there, and if you get the chance to chase a lower risk day take advantage of it.
Travis Davis
EF1
This year has been fairly active for me. I've been out 5-6 times and have bagged quite a few tornados as of now.
Jim Bailey
EF0
Gotta say, Kayla, I feel your pain. Every interesting system to come our way has been nocturnal, so it seems like we're in a dead zone locally. Hopefully May will bring some watches/warnings our way and some chase-able daytime events, because sitting at home and watching everybody and their dog score big gets old. I'll be in TX/OK/KS/NE for the next big event, or my year is gonna suck.
JB
JB
Steven Williams
EF2
While things may seem normal for early May its certainly not as active as it could be.
Paul Sherman
EF2
Seems a normal Tornado Count so far averaged out atm, Skewed obviously by 2 or 3 Notable Outbreaks in the Early Spring/Late Winter Timeframe.
More worringy going forward is the usual Early to Mid May Dross Pattern Setting Up on the Models and with good cross model agreement on Jet Placement over the next 7-10 days.
Active end of May yet again ??
More worringy going forward is the usual Early to Mid May Dross Pattern Setting Up on the Models and with good cross model agreement on Jet Placement over the next 7-10 days.
Active end of May yet again ??
Skip Talbot
EF5
This is about how active it normally is. If it seems slow, you're probably a beginner chaser with unrealistic expectations, or restricted to localized chasing.
From a tornado count perspective, we're above normal:
Yeah, most of those tornadoes came from two big outbreak days, March 2 and April 14, but that's how it usually goes. You get a few active days and the tornadoes come in spurts. I wouldn't toss those days as outliers.
From a chasing standpoint, again there have already been a bunch of great chase days in the plains: March 18, April 3, April 9, April 13, April 14. I left March 2 out because it wasn't in the plains, but it was still a huge chase day for many. There were also many other rewarding chase days that featured great supercell structure.
I think a lot of beginner chasers have unrealistic expectations about how busy or active the seasons are, and expect the season to start abruptly. On May 1, tornadoes do not suddenly swarm the plains. The season gradually builds upon active and non active periods, peaking in the middle of the spring. Unless you have no job and are chasing every single setup, you're going to come away from the season with a handful of tornado days. A couple of those might be photogenic. Cherish them. They are rare. Those who can't make it out to the plains too often or just have a single chasecation will be very lucky to have 2-3 good tornado days (or even 1 if they're out for just a week). A lot of work for a little reward, but that's how it goes.
From a tornado count perspective, we're above normal:
Yeah, most of those tornadoes came from two big outbreak days, March 2 and April 14, but that's how it usually goes. You get a few active days and the tornadoes come in spurts. I wouldn't toss those days as outliers.
From a chasing standpoint, again there have already been a bunch of great chase days in the plains: March 18, April 3, April 9, April 13, April 14. I left March 2 out because it wasn't in the plains, but it was still a huge chase day for many. There were also many other rewarding chase days that featured great supercell structure.
I think a lot of beginner chasers have unrealistic expectations about how busy or active the seasons are, and expect the season to start abruptly. On May 1, tornadoes do not suddenly swarm the plains. The season gradually builds upon active and non active periods, peaking in the middle of the spring. Unless you have no job and are chasing every single setup, you're going to come away from the season with a handful of tornado days. A couple of those might be photogenic. Cherish them. They are rare. Those who can't make it out to the plains too often or just have a single chasecation will be very lucky to have 2-3 good tornado days (or even 1 if they're out for just a week). A lot of work for a little reward, but that's how it goes.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I think Skip covered the reality of what to expect. As I was once told by a veteran chaser, there are only a few really good "chase days" in a year. It would be interesting to research past history and see how many good days (chaser-wise) were available for the past 10-15 years. By good days, I mean those days offering a decent forecast and producing one or more tornado intercept opportunities, in daylight with acceptable terrain. I am guessing from past experiences there are somewhere around 8-10 "good or obvious opportunities" per year, somewhere in the US if you are willing or able to travel and be patient.
As for the season, who knows. As usual, the models this time of year have a difficult time more than 3-4 days out as the transition from winter / spring / summer occurs.
W.
As for the season, who knows. As usual, the models this time of year have a difficult time more than 3-4 days out as the transition from winter / spring / summer occurs.
W.
William Monfredo
EF4
[...I live in Arkansas and so far this spring has been dreadfully slow and not much activity to be had in my area.[/QUOTE]
You may be on to something for your area: a slight reprieve. Up until a couple of years ago, Arkansas was severely under the gun for significant, long-tracked storms for several springs. And to think just a few years ago, Arkansas had a tornado track for over a hundred miles, an amazing record for them.
You may be on to something for your area: a slight reprieve. Up until a couple of years ago, Arkansas was severely under the gun for significant, long-tracked storms for several springs. And to think just a few years ago, Arkansas had a tornado track for over a hundred miles, an amazing record for them.
Thank you very much for all of the input! I am glad to see everyone's insight on this season. I am glad to see that it has just been beginner's "tunnel vision" so to speak. I shall keep my fingers crossed!
While this is my first chase season, I have always been vigilant concerning the weather in my neck of the woods (5-7 years or so). Typically, we do see a fair number of evening events and that being said, a majority of the weather for my area of Arkansas comes out of eastern OK. Seeing how we have not had much of anything this spring, I attribute some of it to there being a lack of activity in eastern OK. I chased on the 14th of April in central OK which was not the best location but we were limited on how far away we could travel. My chase partner, which happens to be my husband, only wants to chase events that display a bit more "promise". Sadly, I am not sure that he realizes how much "luck" comes into play when chasing.
While this is my first chase season, I have always been vigilant concerning the weather in my neck of the woods (5-7 years or so). Typically, we do see a fair number of evening events and that being said, a majority of the weather for my area of Arkansas comes out of eastern OK. Seeing how we have not had much of anything this spring, I attribute some of it to there being a lack of activity in eastern OK. I chased on the 14th of April in central OK which was not the best location but we were limited on how far away we could travel. My chase partner, which happens to be my husband, only wants to chase events that display a bit more "promise". Sadly, I am not sure that he realizes how much "luck" comes into play when chasing.
Steve Smithson
EF0
I was always told anything beyond 7 days out is fantasyland, I would'nt be surprised if it was a repeat of last year when early May was quiet then there was Ada OK, Joplin MO and then 2 days later the Oklahoma outbreak and I had the most active 2 weeks of chasing I ever had
Steve S.
pm_martel
It is possible that your immediate area has been below average so far, but when you look at a larger scale (e.g. all of the Midwest) the start of the season has been active. Tornadoes are not evenly distributed so it may look like it has been slow where you are. There may be a bit of a slow down now, but I have the feeling that things will pick up in late May.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Funny how perception varies depending on your point of view. All this time I have felt like the season was off to an early start, with many southern Plains chasing opportunities beginning around April 9. As I watch all of this from afar, waiting for my chase vacation to begin in another couple of weeks, my fear has been that things started too early and will also end too early, i.e. before I can even get out there!
Hope others are correct about things getting going again in late May!!!
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
Hope others are correct about things getting going again in late May!!!
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
Shane Adams
IMO it's been pretty dismal since April 14. However my perception is geared towards chaseable, diurnal tornado events. I also generally don't care for a long-range h5 wind model that doesn't show any significant western troughs or even short waves.
Similar threads
