Significant snow event through Monday...

[Darren Addy]

http://tinyurl.com/37pb7km

The above is (currently) a link to the Tues. 0z accumulated snowfall.

The good sized totals in Nebraska are nothing compared to the amounts in northern Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. I'd say that people who are skiing in Jackson Hole, WY (and other places) may find that they are not back at work on Monday or Tues. as they had planned. Also significant is the areas of 6" or more of accumulation from southern Alabama into Georgia and western South Carolina.

Locally, here in Kearney, it appears that we are a good bet to receive a good 8-10" on Sun/Mon. At least with the very cold temps, it won't be the wet concrete kind of snow. Areas that get high winds with this even will be looking at some potentially monster drifting.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

You probably already know this but part of what you are seeing there in Minnesota and Wisconsin is snow thats already on the ground (the map you linked to is a current snow depth map ).

Its always better IMO to use a QPF or accumulated precip map like found here.

You can then factor snowfall amounts by using a liquid to snow calculation. To do this, you have to first determine the forecast temp which looks like in Kearney will be in the low 20s and then drop to around 10 by the time the snow ends - so we will use 17 degrees for the calculation as a rough average. This temp needs to be converted from Fahrenheit to Celsius to do the calculation. You can do that by clicking here. This temp converts to -8.3 degrees Celsius.

Then you can take that number as well as the forecast precip amount (or QPF) and enter it into another calculator. In this case, there are places in southern Nebraska in and around Kearney with a QPF of .9 to 1 inch falling from this storm. This equates to around 17 inches of snow falling in the area. Of course we are really to far out to know if this number is realistic, but that is what the latest NAM shows for the area.

BTW, the calculator can be found here...

Like I said, you may have known all this already but in case you didn't I figured I could help out

 

[rdale]

You probably already know this but part of what you are seeing there in Minnesota and Wisconsin is snow thats already on the ground (the map you linked to is a current snow depth map

Actually that's a forecast snow depth map at 84 hours, which is a little better in some cases than your method because that includes the entire profile temperature.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

You probably already know this but part of what you are seeing there in Minnesota and Wisconsin is snow thats already on the ground (the map you linked to is a current snow depth map ).

Its always better IMO to use a QPF or accumulated precip map like found here.

You can then factor snowfall amounts by using a liquid to snow calculation. To do this, you have to first determine the forecast temp which looks like in Kearney will be in the low 20s and then drop to around 10 by the time the snow ends - so we will use 17 degrees for the calculation as a rough average. This temp needs to be converted from Fahrenheit to Celsius to do the calculation. You can do that by clicking here. This temp converts to -8.3 degrees Celsius.

Then you can take that number as well as the forecast precip amount (or QPF) and enter it into another calculator. In this case, there are places in southern Nebraska in and around Kearney with a QPF of .9 to 1 inch falling from this storm. This equates to around 17 inches of snow falling in the area. Of course we are really to far out to know if this number is realistic, but that is what the latest NAM shows for the area.

BTW, the calculator can be found here...

Like I said, you may have known all this already but in case you didn't I figured I could help out

I'm sure you already know this, but for others reading, there are a lot of snow-to-water equivalent formulas and techniques out there. The simple reason being, there is no one "rule of thumb" that works every time. (Or at least we haven't found it!)

 

[Andrew Francis]

Looks like us here in OK are being split between the two storm systems and getting nothing but windchills in the teens.

Still waiting for the first snow of the season....

 

[Chris Carter]

I don't think we are too far from this event. Snow is suppose to start falling across western and central Nebraska tomorrow, and moving into eastern Nebraska by late Sat night, the event is going to be longer than just Monday, as i believe parts of central Nebraska won't see the snow stop until Monday night and eastern Nebraska Tuesday morning.

I like the HPC forecast as it has been pretty consistent with the QPF and has a really good median between the models as the Euro seems to be a bit dry, and the NAM is too wet. GFS seems ok, but the track is too far south compared to the other models. Needless to say, someone across southeast/south central Nebraska and along the Kansas border will see close to a foot of snow once this gets done. Nice thick snowpack should really keep temps down. I think the forecast for next Friday is too high as they have highs close to 40 after seeing highs on Wednesday the single digits.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

Actually that's a forecast snow depth map at 84 hours, which is a little better in some cases than your method because that includes the entire profile temperature.

Yep you are correct, I mistakenly put 'current' when I meant forecast map. Good point about the entire profile temps.

I'm sure you already know this, but for others reading, there are a lot of snow-to-water equivalent formulas and techniques out there. The simple reason being, there is no one "rule of thumb" that works every time. (Or at least we haven't found it!)

Actually I didn't know that - thanks for pointing that out

Here in southern Minnesota it looks like most of the heaviest snow will stay to our south and west but we may still see around 6"...

 

[David C Watson]

Has anyone been watching the potential significant heavy snow heavy that will be possible in western WA starting around Wed of next week? I'm stationed at Fort Lewis, WA and I have been watching this for the past several days in advance right now and the GFS is being fairly consistent with having a pretty significant winter wx event take place in my area. Any thoughts or predictions on this one?

 

[Darren Addy]

This is sort of an interesting system in that it is so slow. We may not even see Winter Storm Warning criteria met. They are calling it a "prolonged light snow" event. But between now and Monday evening some places in Nebraska will be seeing north of 12". It is looking like a good 8" to possibly 10" here in Kearney, with the majority falling between Sun. evening and Monday evening. But it is starting to accumulate here already. 3" or so expected by morning.

 

[Chris Carter]

Radar estimates around an inch or two out near Kearney, Hastings, and Grand Island, most of the bands that moved east have just moistened up the atmosphere though not in Omaha just yet. Places just north of Kearney, such as Summer, Sweetwater and Cumro should be pushing 3" already.

 

[Keith Wilson]

Sunday night and Monday could be interesting as far south as the AL/FL Panhandle state line. It would be an all ice event, but if the track of the low is a little farther south than expected I could wake up to ice here in Florida.
Attached is a video explanation found on the Tallahassee WFO site.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/tae/briefing/player.html

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

NWS is calling for 3-6" here in Middle Tennessee tonight through 6 pm Monday night, and 5-8" by Tuesday night.

 

[Chris Carter]

As of noon today, the winners in Nebraska have been Grand Island and Valentine both reporting 4". I'm hoping the band to the southwest of Omaha can add another inch and a half on top of the inch we have seen so far.

 

[David C Watson]

For western WA they're still pushing towards a significant winter wx event to take place and even said that it would compare to the classic Dec. 1996 winter storm. I sure hope the GFS and the EURO are right about this one cause the base would be closed.

 

[Chris Carter]

First 24 hours of this storm have dumped 6" so far in Ord, NE. probably got a decent 2" out here in Bellevue, but heavier amounts are in Valley, NE just slightly over 3", still got a good 24 - 36 hours of snow with this storm. I thought we would see a dry spot work its way out of southeast Nebraska but it seems to be filling in with more snow, not to mention the heavier snow band across south central Nebraska is working its way eastward.

Winner for the first day is Cozad, NE estimating 12" of snow at 8:30pm CST.