Short range forecast models with explicit convection verifying, if only slightly?

[David Draun]

I've been looking over the SPC NMM/WRF model animations at http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/ over the past few days. They appear to have some idea about what actually occurs during the forecast periods they cover. I've compared daily radar data with what I've seen on the explicit convection models. Convection appears to be breaking out on radar at similar times to when it is forecast by the model. Not only that, but the model seems to have some idea about intensity, mode, and direction of storms. I really enjoy watching the forecasted storm blowing up on the model, then seeing the actual storms blowing up later that day. What are your experiences using the explicit convection, and how accurate is it usually?

 

[Tony Cook]

As I recall, the Feb23 0Z NMM/WRF did remarkably well at predicting the convection later that day in the TX panhandle. It depicted discrete cells, and was close on both location and timing of initiation. I can't remember the precise details, though.

Did anyone follow this model for Friday's event? Like a few other chasers, I anticipated initiation further East, and ended up getting burned by my forecast. Never thought to check this model before I charged out of the house...

Here's more info about the model, btw:
http://www.dtcenter.org/wrf-nmm/users/

TonyC

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I leaned a little bit on that for Friday's forecast too Tony.
I have used that for the last year or two and I have been very surprised with its performance. I think it does an incredible job predicting convective mode (linear or discrete cells). I also think it does a very good job at showing where the cap is most likely to break. I think it is accurate about half the time in my experience. Some days though, it absolutely nails it. Pretty amazing in my opinion. I am a huge fan of the WRF reflectivity product and I use it religously.

 

[David Draun]

Except it puts a discrete supercell/multicell over Northern Central IL sometime tonight. Well where is it?

Well, it can't nail'em all.

 

[Joe Nield]

The 4 km WRF has done rather well at forecasting convective mode, and to a slightly lesser extent, placement of convection for a while now. It does the best with well-forced environments tied to well-resolved synoptic scale features. It fares much more poorly with northwest flow events, such as are seen throughout the midwest on occasion during the depths of the warm season, and events that are much more subtle or tied to more poorly resolved synoptic scale forcing.

I love it as another tool, but as always, use with caution.