David Draun
EF5
I've been looking over the SPC NMM/WRF model animations at http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/ over the past few days. They appear to have some idea about what actually occurs during the forecast periods they cover. I've compared daily radar data with what I've seen on the explicit convection models. Convection appears to be breaking out on radar at similar times to when it is forecast by the model. Not only that, but the model seems to have some idea about intensity, mode, and direction of storms. I really enjoy watching the forecasted storm blowing up on the model, then seeing the actual storms blowing up later that day. What are your experiences using the explicit convection, and how accurate is it usually?