Severe Weather Forecasting

[Hugb]

Hi before i ask my question i would like to say that i am very new to the world of severe weather forecasting. I was wondering what model type would show wind shear?

 

[Skip Talbot]

Most model sites that show the most common weather models we use for severe weather forecasting have various plots depicting wind shear. TwisterData is a popular site that shows the RAP, NAM and GFS models and has plots for speed and directional shear for each them.

http://www.twisterdata.com/

Pick a model, a forecast hour, and then you'll find several plots under the Shear section. Bulk shear indicating the speed shear at various levels while your helicity and crossovers indicate directional shear.

 

[Hugb]

This was very helpful thank you so much!!!
Hugb

 

[Bob Hartig]

Adding to what Skip has said, the most important kind of shear to acquaint yourself with at the onset is 0-6 km bulk shear (also commonly known simply as "bulk shear" and referred to on Twisterdata as 0-500 mb bulk shear). It's the lifeblood of severe weather. Forty knots and above of 0-6 km shear is good, with 35 knots being a low threshold. Below that, storm organization becomes increasingly unlikely. You can still get severe weather, but it typically involves factors that the forecast models may not pick up on.

 

[Hugb]

Thanks for all of the help im starting to understand this but i think it may take for me to fully understand it.

 

[Bobby Prentice]

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Hourly Mesoscale Analysis page provides the best severe storm analysis and short term (2-6 hr) forecast products:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

Note: Click on a sector and choose the "Wind Shear" tab.

The help pages are very educational as well.