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Severe Storms in NJ/NYC For Today?

Okay folks-

How bad does it look today for severe weather in my neck of the woods? Isolated severe T-storms? And what about tornadic activity? The weather's going to undergro a fairly drastic change in 18-24 hours. It's 66 degrees right now, and pretty humid, with overcast skies.

Just had an amazing gust front roll through at my place in Vermont:


I wish I had the resolution set a little finer, but there was no mistaking the cold front outside. I was flying my kite in 15g35mph winds out of the south. The winds slacked a bit before I could hear them in the trees to the west of me. I literally felt the 65-70 degree air get bumped out with a cold gust. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a near instantaneous 10 degree drop. I'm checking now to see if my webcam caught the front come by.
We also had a very narrow "non-thunderstorm" line come through this afternoon. Surface temperatures dropped around 20 degrees F in 2 hours and we must have had 0.50"-1.0" of rainfall. No convective wind or lightning with the front at all.

After an early morning analysis, I did not beleive there would be any severe today around here despite sunshine and a 70 degree surface temp and great dynamics. Why? Radar imagery this morning showed a large area of rain with an embedded line of heavier showers moving toward the north-northeast within a large area of rainfall. The line itself was making such slow eastward progress, that the embedded large area of rain sufficiently cooled the airmass/inflow that the line was trying to use. It's almost the the exact same scenario as a line of storms that becomes outflow dominant. The air that the thunderstorm ingests just becomes too stable and the line either fizzles or doesn't form in the first place. The latter happened today. That's my $0.02 FWIW. Out.
Someone guy driving his truck in North Hempstead, Long Island got hit by a falling tree limb, which smashed right through his windshield. The man "is in critical condition at Winthrop University Hospital in Mineola with severe abdominal injuries."



---> http://www.wnbc.com
Strange. I feel bad for the guy...likely a freak, isolated accident. I notice from the photos that the tree appears to be the only one that fell. I also see that NO damage reports were received or reported. It is likely that the winds were not strong enough to cause a healthy tree or limb to fall under normal conditions. I'd bet that the tree/limb had some other issues like rotting or decay or something like that. I have worked on so many of these kinds of lawsuits and insurance cases and have spoken with arborists about these incidents. Sad story, I hope the guy comes out of it OK. If he does, he'll probably end up suing the town and getting a ton of money in a settlement.