Senate calls for NWS consolidation...again

[rdale]

Mike - whoever told you the goal of restructuring was to remove humans misunderstood. That's not in question. Our current breakdown of WFOs is clearly broken, and needs to be fixed. This bill however circumvents the work the NWS had just started to find new ways to deliver info so that's why people are not comfortable with it. Changes are coming...

 

[JamesCaruso]

I am not part of either the public or private weather enterprise, so this post should be viewed only as questioning and seeking to learn... but isn't SPC a fantastic example of the successful centralization of forecasting? Yes, I realize they do not issue warnings, but I don't think that invalidates the comparison.

Also, many of the private weather forecasting companies focus on offering hyper-local forecasts, and to my knowledge they don't do it by having office locations all over the country...

Anything that involves change and the potential loss of jobs is disconcerting to those in the field and likely to be affected by it. I certainly understand that. But if looked at objectively and unemotionally, might opinions about this be more favorable?

I find the idea of having a local NWSFO comforting in a nostalgic sense but, like the demise of the local hardware store in favor of the more distant Home Depot, I think this sort of thing is inevitable. It is similar to the move in business to the use of shared service centers for back-office and corporate functions.

Having said that, I still think there can be plenty of opportunities in meteorology despite NWP, just like there is still a huge demand for accountants despite automation in that field (which happens to be my field, so I can speak from experience on this point...) The roles and jobs have evolved, but they are still there...

 

[rdale]

I am not part of either the public or private weather enterprise, so this post should be viewed only as questioning and seeking to learn... but isn't SPC a fantastic example of the successful centralization of forecasting? Yes, I realize they do not issue warnings, but I don't think that invalidates the comparison.

It does... SPC is a broad scale outlook. Many times you'll see locals react to a particular watch with a "huh?" It would be comparable to forecasting the state of Oklahoma to have highs in the 85-100 degree range today. Probably correct - but not very usable.

Also, many of the private weather forecasting companies focus on offering hyper-local forecasts, and to my knowledge they don't do it by having office locations all over the country...

Correct, but they don't do it with humans. Most "hyper-local" forecasts are all computerized. And if you have one of those apps you'll see they can be very good during quiet weather periods. And very VERY bad during active weather.

Anything that involves change and the potential loss of jobs is disconcerting to those in the field and likely to be affected by it. I certainly understand that. But if looked at objectively and unemotionally, might opinions about this be more favorable?

No. Remember that forecasting is only half of the equation. You can have the best forecast in the world - but if you can't communicate that to people it doesn't do a lick of good. Having a WFO helps create relationships - and through relationships the locals & mets can better coordinate what they need and how it can be provided.

 

[JamesCaruso]

....SPC is a broad scale outlook. Many times you'll see locals react to a particular watch with a "huh?" It would be comparable to forecasting the state of Oklahoma to have highs in the 85-100 degree range today. Probably correct - but not very usable....

True, but isn't that a function of the nature and intention of specific products such as the Convective Outlook and Convective Watches, as opposed to a question of capabilities? SPC's ability to drill down to the local level is evident in Mesoscale Discussions, which often will note individual storms.

Good point in your post about the relationship aspect of local NWSFOs though. That's one of the reasons why the national CPA firm where I work has a strategy of lots of local offices even though much of the work could be done remotely/virtually or by putting people on a plane.


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