Elaine Spencer
EF3
This might sound like an odd question, especially for a storm chasing forum, but I wonder if anyone uses the forecast tools and strategies of chasing to chase "in reverse," i.e. get AWAY from where tornadoes are likely to occur and stay away until the danger passes?
Let me emphasize that I am NOT talking about attempting to flee from an imminent tornado or tornado warning (like people in OKC did on May 31). Rather, I mean looking at the forecasts a day or two ahead of time and if you find your area is likely to be outlooked as Moderate or High Risk for strong/violent tornadoes, making plans to travel to a lower-risk location well ahead of time, if that is feasible.
As an example, take the 11/17 outbreak in IL and IN. I was aware at least 2-3 days ahead of time that a severe weather outbreak was possible in our area. By Saturday it was becoming increasingly obvious that our area of central IL was very likely to be at risk for strong to violent tornadoes the following day. By early Sunday morning we were right smack dab in the middle of a High Risk, 30% hatched area and a PDS TOR watch.
Perhaps we could have removed ourselves from the area of greatest danger by packing up on Saturday morning (taking with us a bug out bag with supplies and important documents we might need if the house got hit) or early Saturday afternoon and driving into eastern IA or MO just west of the Mississippi, a little beyond the projected risk area, and getting a motel room. We could have monitored later developments and maybe moved a little farther west on Sunday morning to get behind the cold front and beyond the Mod Risk/hatched area until the danger was past back home. In other words I would be looking for a "target area" where tornadoes were LEAST likely to occur.
Although in the end, nothing happened in our part of SPI besides a few wind gusts and some hail, had we still been living in our first house in Washington IL (which didn't have a basement), we would have been spared a really harrowing experience as the EF-4 tornado passed within about a mile of that neighborhood. Yes, we would have endured a 2-3 hour drive home wondering all the while if we were going to HAVE a home when we got there... but at least we would have known we were safe.
Obviously one cannot do this all the time. If the risk area is so big you would have to drive several states away to get out of it, or there is a multi-day outbreak going on and you would simply be heading into the area your future severe weather was coming from, or if you had work/school/other obligations keeping you at home, you could not do this. I personally would only want to resort to this in High Risk situations, which occur maybe every few years in my area. In some ways it would be like evacuating ahead of a hurricane. Has anyone tried this or known someone who has?
Let me emphasize that I am NOT talking about attempting to flee from an imminent tornado or tornado warning (like people in OKC did on May 31). Rather, I mean looking at the forecasts a day or two ahead of time and if you find your area is likely to be outlooked as Moderate or High Risk for strong/violent tornadoes, making plans to travel to a lower-risk location well ahead of time, if that is feasible.
As an example, take the 11/17 outbreak in IL and IN. I was aware at least 2-3 days ahead of time that a severe weather outbreak was possible in our area. By Saturday it was becoming increasingly obvious that our area of central IL was very likely to be at risk for strong to violent tornadoes the following day. By early Sunday morning we were right smack dab in the middle of a High Risk, 30% hatched area and a PDS TOR watch.
Perhaps we could have removed ourselves from the area of greatest danger by packing up on Saturday morning (taking with us a bug out bag with supplies and important documents we might need if the house got hit) or early Saturday afternoon and driving into eastern IA or MO just west of the Mississippi, a little beyond the projected risk area, and getting a motel room. We could have monitored later developments and maybe moved a little farther west on Sunday morning to get behind the cold front and beyond the Mod Risk/hatched area until the danger was past back home. In other words I would be looking for a "target area" where tornadoes were LEAST likely to occur.
Although in the end, nothing happened in our part of SPI besides a few wind gusts and some hail, had we still been living in our first house in Washington IL (which didn't have a basement), we would have been spared a really harrowing experience as the EF-4 tornado passed within about a mile of that neighborhood. Yes, we would have endured a 2-3 hour drive home wondering all the while if we were going to HAVE a home when we got there... but at least we would have known we were safe.
Obviously one cannot do this all the time. If the risk area is so big you would have to drive several states away to get out of it, or there is a multi-day outbreak going on and you would simply be heading into the area your future severe weather was coming from, or if you had work/school/other obligations keeping you at home, you could not do this. I personally would only want to resort to this in High Risk situations, which occur maybe every few years in my area. In some ways it would be like evacuating ahead of a hurricane. Has anyone tried this or known someone who has?