Predicting the 2007 Tornado Season

Michael O'Keeffe

I know predicting what a season will be like so far out is almost an impossible task, but there are some clues on what to expect based on pasted seasons.

I have two links below:
January 13,2003 SST Anomaly chart
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.1.13.2003.gif

January 13,2007 SST Anomaly chart
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.1.13.2007.gif

I have noticed these are very similar. I also checked the winter of 2002/2003 and it was similar to the one we are expierencing now.

Keep in mind I'm not expecting another May 2003 here or anything, but maybe this could give us clues on where the severe weather epicenter should be, such as in 2003 KS and MO were effected a lot. This would make sense also, because we have seen system after system move through which could mean frequent severe weather events every few days.

I'm not a qualified meteorologist or anything, but this is what I've noticed. All of this is just a theory and I could be totally wrong.

I would appreciate it if some of you more expierenced chasers and meteorlogist could chime in.
 
Quick question, are those the normal ocean temps for the North Atlantic Ocean? There are areas of red and orange N of Europe that I would think would be blue meaning colder ocean temps if thats what that graphic is, ocean temps. If that is an accurate reading could that be why the polar caps are melting?
 
Be interesting to see how things play out. I for one am expecting a more active year this year. I was somewhat pessimistic last year as we had been extremely dry, but based on the already active storm pattern we have seen this year in OK (winter storms) and the return to a wetter pattern I have great hopes for this year in the Southern Plains.
 
Last year I said that 2006 would turn out like 1988. It pretty much did.

Sooo.... this year I have a gut feeling the southern plains is going to return to it's former tornado glory status. One thing I have noticed over the last 20+ years.... these things ALWAYS seem to balance themselves out sooner or later.... and it always seems like after we have had a "tornado drought" on the southern section of the plains, we always bounce back with a lot of activity.

Last winter for the southern part of the plains was dry and overly warm. Most of us didn't see much resembling winter. Quite the opposite this year with MOST of Texas seeing winter right now. We have had regular precip events every 7-10 days or so. Last year at this time it was MAJOR dry, with high winds and brush fires all over TX and OK.

Yeah, I suspect this spring will be exciting down here!
 
I would have to agree. I think the southern plains are going to see their glory year this year. Oklahomans, prepare for a chance of excitement :)

My reasons are as the others are saying, the active pattern developing and the southern tracks of the storms - and the hope that the gulf will remain wide open. We get some monster moisture, a strong jet, and things will be in business I am sure. I really am hopeful that this year will bring our Oklahoma chasers some much needed respite from 500 mile trips up north.

Let's hope that this is right on the behalf of our southern chasers.
 
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Michael O'Keeffe said:
I know predicting what a season will be like so far out is almost an impossible task, but there are some clues on what to expect based on pasted seasons.

I have two links below:
January 13,2003 SST Anomaly chart
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.1.13.2003.gif

January 13,2007 SST Anomaly chart
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.1.13.2007.gif

I have noticed these are very similar. I also checked the winter of 2002/2003 and it was similar to the one we are expierencing now.

Keep in mind I'm not expecting another May 2003 here or anything, but maybe this could give us clues on where the severe weather epicenter should be, such as in 2003 KS and MO were effected a lot. This would make sense also, because we have seen system after system move through which could mean frequent severe weather events every few days.

I'm not a qualified meteorologist or anything, but this is what I've noticed. All of this is just a theory and I could be totally wrong.

I would appreciate it if some of you more expierenced chasers and meteorlogist could chime in.
Click to expand...
2002-03 was a very cold winter for the east. Anything but so far in 2006-07.




Justin Walker said:
1995, 1999, 2003, 2007......The super active four year cycle...that is if you believe in total chance! :confused:
Click to expand...

1987 was very inactive, and 2004 was very active. ;)
 
Getting any sort of sizeable precipitation in the southern states usually means more opportunities (or at least chances) will present themselves. Two major factors in the hit-or-miss season last year were: the good events happened before May and the grass didn't get green in KS until early to mid April due to lack of moisture. April 6th was the classic example of this in action. High risk in NE KS, and the dewpoints struggled to see 60 (modified continental air) with temps in the mid-80s. The first three hours yielded some excellent tornadic supercells, but within 90 minutes of sunset, most of the fun in NE KS was over (SE KS still had a few after that).

How many of you would have liked this system to occur in April or May rather than January? ;)
 
I am by no means an expert, but if this pattern continues through April, May, and hopefully June, it will be a great year for chasers. More snow in the rockies, lowered jet stream, decreased drought leading to increased moisture and lower LCLs, and the storm systems going through the southern plains. All in all, its looking to be a better year than last year. My hope is that all the good stuff holds off till May and June, when I'll be out there. I'd love to get my first daytime Oklahoma tornado/s and my first Texas tornado. Preferably in the Panhandle ;)
 
I agree with David when he says that things will balance out. I really do think it's going to be one heck of a season this year. Eastern CO and Western KS along with the TX panhandle should be under the gun all season. I just have that gut feeling...
 
Souns like you gentlemen have some credible theories and evidence to hint at a better year. I noticed that gas is $1.90 where I live here in Indiana, wouldn't it be awesome to be chasing around with those prices! Hopefully they stay low until June or later.

As for '07 prediction... I expect hell to pay for a lack of hell in' 06, lol.
 
David Drummond said:
Last year I said that 2006 would turn out like 1988. It pretty much did.

Sooo.... this year I have a gut feeling the southern plains is going to return to it's former tornado glory status. One thing I have noticed over the last 20+ years.... these things ALWAYS seem to balance themselves out sooner or later.... and it always seems like after we have had a "tornado drought" on the southern section of the plains, we always bounce back with a lot of activity.

Last winter for the southern part of the plains was dry and overly warm. Most of us didn't see much resembling winter. Quite the opposite this year with MOST of Texas seeing winter right now. We have had regular precip events every 7-10 days or so. Last year at this time it was MAJOR dry, with high winds and brush fires all over TX and OK.

Yeah, I suspect this spring will be exciting down here!
Click to expand...

Hope you're right David, but don't say it too much loud:p You know well that the God of the chasers can change idea whenever he wants:D
This year I'm going to come another time in the Plains so it must be an incredible season;)
 
Increased snow pack in the Rockies this year should help keep the cap under control. There is definately more moisture from TX through the OH Valley this winter and barring a return to drought would certainly help in evapo-trans department come spring green season. The Gulf is taking some seasonal punishment right now but I assume temps are still above normal there. All in all, the cards seem to be in place. Not sure how the Nino pattern fits or what the forecast calls for but some Australian forecasters suggest the pattern will break down before summer. Whatever happens, it cannot get much worse than post April 2006. The last two years I was on vactation when the best events happened where I live. Head to ND/SD/MN when I'm out of town.
 
At this early point in the season it's a crapshoot, but it's fun to speculate!

The notable early trends IMHO are the developing ridge over the northeast Pacific and the warmer west Pacific waters beginning to circulate eastward at mid latitudes. I think that these general trends will reinforce and by spring the Gulf of Alaska waters will be above normal. Meanwhile the colder waters will push south down the North American west coast.

I think this suggests that the persistent Hudson's Bay trough establishing in tandem with the east Pacific ridge and a more zonal flow over North America will be characteristic of the next two or three months. Insolation and continental snowmelt will work to flip this relationship in a rather normal fashion with a relatively high-index flow and weakness off the west coast developing through the spring, together with an energetic subtropical jet.

In sum my guess:

March -- fuggetaboutit, unless you're chasing the Gulf coast states.
April -- some severe activity up into AK and the TN Valley, late some fast movers in OK - MO - KY.
May -- near fond memories of normal, if there is such a thing, with TX opening up and decent progressive dryline Panhandle - OK setups and KS - MO - IL mid - late.
June -- some sweet times in KS, NE, IA; the upslope and SD mid - late.
Early summer -- ND, SD, MN, IA, with a few late surprise shots at the CO - WY - MT upslope.
Mid - late summer -- the Plains are going to fry (TX - OK will steam), and chasers should have their passports with them, or be Canadian citizens. [ed. By Canada, I mean the parts of Canada east of the Rockies where there are some roads, I guess.] ;)

FWIW. :rolleyes:
 
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