Tony Laubach
EF5
A big forecasting challenge upcoming for the Front Range area through Friday. All week, I've been tracking the next front which is suppose to swing down from the north. Up til today, it looked very benign, however, the models have intensified a low pressure system that could draw up some extra moisture from Paul making for a very interesting situation!
The range of possibilities of this scenario go from our original thinking of a benign and windy system to a potent blizzard over the Eastern Plains and Front Range. This is shown in the wide range of numbers cranked out for precip by the various models. For instance, numbers on the NGM at Denver have only 0.02 inches of liquid while the NAM's numbers crank out about 0.63 inches of liquid. The GFS graphic from Dupage has us sitting under a ONE inch bulls-eye in 48 hours (12z Thursday). Not to mention the other forecasts from 42 and 54 hours which peak us at over 1.5 inches total for this storm. Snow ratios similar to the previous two storms would have us sitting at nearly 2 feet of snow.
Of course, snow depends on how cold we can get and how fast we can get there. Timing of the front is still an issue and will determine how much of this precip falls as snow after the front has passed.
Another issues showing up on Futurecast and models is a northwesterly wind component which would dramatically reduce snow totals across the Denver Metro area. This would create a downslope effect over the immediate front range and all but kill any chance for measurable snow. However, if this system deepens and slows a bit, we would see more upslope and allow for snow accumulations to increase here in town. This would bring those significant accumulations east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide.
I think the Eastern Plains from I-70 southward will get nailed with blizzard conditions in the form of strong winds and blowing snow. Accumulations are the big question where things track!
I'll continue to watch this system with eager intent and hope that we can get a decent storm for out of this. Right now, I'm leaning toward the side of caution with the northwest winds keeping me from getting too excited. However, watching the models flips as hard as they have over the last 24 hours definately has me hopeful.
The range of possibilities of this scenario go from our original thinking of a benign and windy system to a potent blizzard over the Eastern Plains and Front Range. This is shown in the wide range of numbers cranked out for precip by the various models. For instance, numbers on the NGM at Denver have only 0.02 inches of liquid while the NAM's numbers crank out about 0.63 inches of liquid. The GFS graphic from Dupage has us sitting under a ONE inch bulls-eye in 48 hours (12z Thursday). Not to mention the other forecasts from 42 and 54 hours which peak us at over 1.5 inches total for this storm. Snow ratios similar to the previous two storms would have us sitting at nearly 2 feet of snow.
Of course, snow depends on how cold we can get and how fast we can get there. Timing of the front is still an issue and will determine how much of this precip falls as snow after the front has passed.
Another issues showing up on Futurecast and models is a northwesterly wind component which would dramatically reduce snow totals across the Denver Metro area. This would create a downslope effect over the immediate front range and all but kill any chance for measurable snow. However, if this system deepens and slows a bit, we would see more upslope and allow for snow accumulations to increase here in town. This would bring those significant accumulations east of Denver and along the Palmer Divide.
I think the Eastern Plains from I-70 southward will get nailed with blizzard conditions in the form of strong winds and blowing snow. Accumulations are the big question where things track!
I'll continue to watch this system with eager intent and hope that we can get a decent storm for out of this. Right now, I'm leaning toward the side of caution with the northwest winds keeping me from getting too excited. However, watching the models flips as hard as they have over the last 24 hours definately has me hopeful.
