Pattern interests

[ChristianTerry]

Has anyone looked at the GFS for next monday? I know its still a few days away but it looks interesting. I for one am no expert at reading the models but I see several good things on them right now. A nice package of higher CAPE will move into some nice amounts of moisture from central to northeast Texas and Southern Oklahoma. Shear looks okay but can anyone tell me if I am reading it good and if it looks like a good chase day for next Monday.

 

[Brandon Jenkins]

Just glancing over the models I believe you are looking at Sunday as Monday seems to show nothing of interest. As for Sunday, there appears to be an area of 1000-1500ish cape extending from west central Texas all the way to the Red River. Dews don't look all that impressive until you get slightly further east where they approach the low 60's. 1km shear looks awful, at least on this run (and the past couple as well) and that would certainly limit severe potential. But of course things can and probably will change by then, once the NAM comes into range and some consistency in models can be verified it will be easier to tell for sure. Mods may want to move this to the FCST section.

 

[Skip Talbot]

A nice package of higher CAPE will move into some nice amounts of moisture from central to northeast Texas and Southern Oklahoma. Shear looks okay but can anyone tell me if I am reading it good and if it looks like a good chase day for next Monday.

I like to take an ingredients based approach when I make a chase forecast. You've addressed 3 of the 4 ingredients we need for Sunday over TX:

1. Instability - GFS is plotting marginal instability from OK (750 J/kg) to decent instability in central TX (1500 J/kg). Enough to support supercells.
2. Moisture - 55-60 Td's from OK through central TX. A little on the marginal side, but again could support supercells
3. Shear - 30-40 knots bulk shear. Not bad. We usually want at least 30 to sustain supercells
   
   and finally...
4. Lift - We've got a nice dryline across central TX. That's probably going to be our initiation focal point when coupled with the trough intersecting it.

So everything is in place for a few supercells. Several of our parameters look rather marginal, so overall I'd say this is a marginal chase op for supercells, but a good shot at some storms. Nitpicking this setup, our trough looks rather weak, our surface winds are light, mediocre, and veered. A nice, tight surface low would help, but we're missing that. Our directional shear suffers as a result and we may be looking at more of a linear event for the most part. But again, our parameters support a supercell threat. Let's see what the NAM says tomorrow morning, as our our paramters may shift some and we'll get some insight into the tornado potential as well.