Congratulations on taking up the challenge of making your own forecasts, Justin. You'll get it, but it does take time. There's a lot to learn--a lot--so be patient with yourself. It's not going to come overnight.
First, do you understand the fundamental components of severe weather--i.e. moisture, instability, lift, and shear? It's the potential interplay of those four ingredients that you're trying to determine through the forecast models as well as actual surface obs and soundings. The maps at different levels--surface, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, and 300/250/200mb--all are just tools to help you see how moisture, instability, lift, and shear may line up in order to produce severe weather.
So before you tackle the models, or maybe while you're tackling them, inform yourself on those four basic ingredients. Then the stuff you see on the surface and upper air charts will start making better sense to you.
That being said, the term model forecasts covers some pretty broad territory, but I'm guessing that you're thinking specifically of basic surface and upper air maps. You're bound to get a variety of input on this topic because everyone here is an individual, and we've all got our personal stories about how we've learned--and continue to learn--to use forecasting tools. One practical approach, to my thinking, would be to start by learning how to use the surface map and then the 500mb map. I'm not saying the others aren't important--they're all important. It's just that your brain can only process so much information, and trying to learn everything at once may not be all that helpful for you. The surface and 500mb (mid-level) maps reveal a lot about what the atmosphere is doing or is likely to do. Get a feel for those, then start filling in above and below with the other maps.
There are a lot of resources available through this site, so do a bit of searching and you'll find that any questions you may have, have probably already been answered in a previous thread.
It really helps if you can have an experienced chaser or weather forecaster show you the ropes. There's nothing like being able to ask questions and get answers from a live person to help you get your arms around this stuff.
Again, be patient with yourself and learn at your own pace. Taking in bite-size pieces, one or two concepts at a time, will benefit you more than trying to swallow the whole pot roast in one gulp.
Thanks for the advice.
