Novice Forecast Board...

[Andrew Burnett]

Is there a way we could get a forecast board for "novice" forecasters to try their hand? Anyway I think a big reason more folks don't post in the forecast forum is due to the strict nature of their moderation and randomness of their application. Just a thought.

 

[T Metz]

Andrew, as a novice myself this idea sounds pretty intriguing.

 

[Matt Hunt]

I would consider myself a novice, and I still post in the FCST threads. As far as I know none of my posts have been deleted. Aside from that, I always post a FCST on my blog, and then compare that to what actually happens. I shouldn't say always, just for the events I'm chasing, or random ones that I wish I could chase.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Is there a way we could get a forecast board for "novice" forecasters to try their hand? Anyway I think a big reason more folks don't post in the forecast forum is due to the strict nature of their moderation and randomness of their application. Just a thought.

This would entirely be up to Tim, the site administrator, though personally I would argue that it may be a bit redundant, though that doesn't mean the idea has no merit either. The key to the forecast section of the Target Area lies in reading and understanding the rules.

Most people seem to think they're being singled out if a post gets deleted, but I would disagree that the rules are selectively applied. In order to post in a forecast thread, you must post your own forecast, or at least discuss a minimum of one or two synoptic or mesoscale parameters that may play a role, in your opinion, in how a SVR event may unfold. Simply throwing out questions to the general membership or announcing that you are going to sit in Target City A, absent any meteorological forecast discussion of your own, is not permitted per the current rules.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

The real reason why the FCST and NOW threads have become more and more void of posts is that to many people are using them to figure out where to go with out knowing how to forecast themselves. Many of the more experienced chasers are getting sick of being followed around after posting their thoughts and target locations. It is getting so bad now that I am not going to turn my SN icon on until I get onto a storm. Just the other day when Scott Bennett and I left Ardmore, well before any storms fired, we started to notice a line of four or so chasers start to follow us. When we dropped out icons at a casino off the side of the road and kept on driving that line of SN icons stopped there too.

I am all for helping someone new to chasing learn how to forecast but the amount of leaches and yahoos is getting out of hand. If you straight up come ask me if you can follow me or ask for help to understand a forecast and how to formulate your own I will help but I am getting tired of the freeloaders and noobs that tend to cause more problems than not out in the field. The following quote sums up pretty much why I will never post another FCST on here again. (Not that I ever made many to begin with)

Thread: 4/19/11 REPORTS: IL/MO/OK/TX/AR
Member Join Date Mar 2010 Posts 7
Ok, I'm pissed I missed this one. I made it to springfield by 5:30, but nobody was posting anything in the now thread, and I had no idea where to go. Ended up heading towards pana, got a lot of hail and rain, but not much else

I would be all for a novice FCST thread and then a more advanced one. Make the more advanced one viewable only to the eyes of people who can post in it and require a test or essay or something to prove that the poster isn't just some uneducated moron that chases by following around SN icons and drives to the middle of the SPC bubble.

 

[Rob H]

Is there a way we could get a forecast board for "novice" forecasters to try their hand? Anyway I think a big reason more folks don't post in the forecast forum is due to the strict nature of their moderation and randomness of their application. Just a thought.

Not that this is a bad idea, but what's wrong with just making a forecast and then analyzing where you did well and where you did poorly the day after? Look back at the FCST threads for days like 5/22/10 - people were complaining about the cap and saying it was going to be a bust. When you start getting sucked into the groupthink and feel the need to defend your positions and be right as much as possible - that's when forecasting is less of a tool and more of a stressful activity.

edit: The DISC threads could actually be a better learning tool than the FCST threads if people used them as something other than a place to comment on pictures if you didn't actually chase that day. Just a thought.

 

[Andy Jackson]

The real reason why the FCST and NOW threads have become more and more void of posts is that to many people are using them to figure out where to go with out knowing how to forecast themselves. Many of the more experienced chasers are getting sick of being followed around after posting their thoughts and target locations. It is getting so bad now that I am not going to turn my SN icon on until I get onto a storm. Just the other day when Scott Bennett and I left Ardmore, well before any storms fired, we started to notice a line of four or so chasers start to follow us. When we dropped out icons at a casino off the side of the road and kept on driving that line of SN icons stopped there too.

I am all for helping someone new to chasing learn how to forecast but the amount of leaches and yahoos is getting out of hand. If you straight up come ask me if you can follow me or ask for help to understand a forecast and how to formulate your own I will help but I am getting tired of the freeloaders and noobs that tend to cause more problems than not out in the field. The following quote sums up pretty much why I will never post another FCST on here again. (Not that I ever made many to begin with)



I would be all for a novice FCST thread and then a more advanced one. Make the more advanced one viewable only to the eyes of people who can post in it and require a test or essay or something to prove that the poster isn't just some uneducated moron that chases by following around SN icons and drives to the middle of the SPC bubble.

I think a test on what people know would be great. There are also meteorologists on this forum who actually have degrees in Meteorology would they have a more advanced forcasting area as well?

 

[Jason Foster]

DISC threads are good. ALSO, consider doing a FCST type thread in the Educational subforum. Maybe a NVC FCST and just put in the first post that you are putting out a forecast and want to see how you yourself do and want help pointing out where you went wrong. I'd actually do that more myself.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

I think a test on what people know would be great. There are also meteorologists on this forum who actually have degrees in Meteorology would they have a more advanced forcasting area as well?

I would say you could make the test or essay hard enough that they could share the same FCST area as those with a met degree. If the people with a degree want a board above that to post in they can go to CFDG.

 

[Andrew Burnett]

thanks for the replies guys. One of the more frustrating things I have discovered with this site is a sense of elitism that seems to almost be fostered. My hope was to have some forecast threads where guys like me could give it our best shot, without fear of things being hammered on. Those posts could then be picked on my some one who may have seen something different in the models or information. Sort of a group learning thing.

Thanks again. I will crawl back into my hole now.

 

[Maurice Fitzgerald]

I know this may go against the opinions of some here but I would honestly not like to see an advanced forecaster thread locked out. I'd be more than willing to try to learn forecasting and pass a test to be allowed access but I am one of those who uses the forecast thread as a way of being better informed as to what may lie ahead for me in my area as much as I use it to glean bits of education here and there. I respect and greatly appreciate the many informative posts and have gained a greater understanding of not only forecasting as a science but how to understand storms in progress through reading numerous posts on here in the forecast forum. I'm one of the many who does follow the SN icons on my GR3, to see where you all are and the action is at, along with catching streams but I do it from home and not on the road trying to ride coat tails. I find that activity repulsive, go do the work and figure out what storm to follow yourself if you're going out in the field. Otherwise, stay off the road and out of the way, lest Darwinism makes you a statistic. I bet 90% of clowns like that haven't even taken a basic spotter class, nor care about the functions of spotters, they just want to see a tube so they can brag that they "bagged a tornado", but will never mention they followed someone else to do so. lol

I've not been on a chase yet but hope to some day ride along with someone who does know what they're doing and I would NEVER jump onto someone's bumper and follow them without at minimum, asking permission to do so. Firstly, you'd never see me out there because I'm smart enough to know, I don't know enough to be in a vehicle by myself during a severe event. I admit to running around town in my car when there's a storm coming towards me, so I can see structure and watch its progress, unless there's rotation/possible tornadic acticity then I keep my butt home. I did learn something from spotter class!

I have learned a lot about reading radar but there's still a lot more for me yet to learn and forecasting, I've not even tried yet to be honest but I have begun to learn some things and where to go to get the products, by reading posts of the many good forecasters we have here.

While I understand and fully support the desire to eliminate the bandwagon jumper "Stormchasers tv show wanna-be's", please keep in mind there are those like myself who 'lurk' quite a bit here in order to read and learn from the many great posts and definitely gain quite a bit of understanding of what may lie ahead in our areas personally. As chasers and spotters, you may not realize that your first steps in assisting the public actually start right here. I'm sure I'm not the only one who gains a lot from reading here, both educationally and in being better informed about severe weather that may impact my area.

I see where Andrew is coming from and do like the idea of a beginner's forum. Heck, it would be great to have that and if the experienced mets had the desire to pop in and critique the forecasts, it would be an even further benefit to novice forecasters and those with a stronger interest in weather than the average bear. It would also keep the 'clutter' out of the advanced thread, where the more educated could post the more accurate forecass and discussions.

I hope I don't offend anyone with this post, just wanted to throw out my .02 as a person with a strong interest in weather who greatly appreciates this site, what it offers and what all of you do both here and in the field.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

The real reason why the FCST and NOW threads have become more and more void of posts is that to many people are using them to figure out where to go with out knowing how to forecast themselves. Many of the more experienced chasers are getting sick of being followed around after posting their thoughts and target locations. It is getting so bad now that I am not going to turn my SN icon on until I get onto a storm. Just the other day when Scott Bennett and I left Ardmore, well before any storms fired, we started to notice a line of four or so chasers start to follow us. When we dropped out icons at a casino off the side of the road and kept on driving that line of SN icons stopped there too.

I am all for helping someone new to chasing learn how to forecast but the amount of leaches and yahoos is getting out of hand. If you straight up come ask me if you can follow me or ask for help to understand a forecast and how to formulate your own I will help but I am getting tired of the freeloaders and noobs that tend to cause more problems than not out in the field. The following quote sums up pretty much why I will never post another FCST on here again. (Not that I ever made many to begin with)



I would be all for a novice FCST thread and then a more advanced one. Make the more advanced one viewable only to the eyes of people who can post in it and require a test or essay or something to prove that the poster isn't just some uneducated moron that chases by following around SN icons and drives to the middle of the SPC bubble.

Bart is right on the money with his post. No one likes to be followed and have to do all the legwork for those who have no wish to learn and just want to see something without working for it.

There's a difference between not knowing how to forecast, and not making an effort. I didn't know how until Wes Carter and Bart Comstock showed me, it was all Greek to me, but now it's been explained, I'm more confident in my abilities to recognize variables and changing weather ingredients.

 

[Atreyu Neyhart]

I also wish not to be locked out. I can forecast good enough to make my own target, and when I do start chasing, I have enough respect not to just start following someone who actually took the time to forecast. Thing is I always read every post in every forecast thread, I learn from it, and as mentioned earlier, It's a way to get others thoughts for my area, as well as what the Vet's/experts think.

-Atreyu

 

[Matt Tottle]

I'm also trying to learn the ropes of forecasting. I don't think a whole forum is needed for it, but I like the idea of simply tagging it as NOVICE FCST or something. Then those more in the know can offer pointers as to what is right/wrong about it.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

You all are welcome to start beginner threads like that in the Introductory Weather & Chasing forum. It's actually a good idea. As you pointed out, not only can you post your thoughts about the chase day, but advanced chasers will likely come in and add details about what's going on. That in itself yields more perspective and context than the Target Area threads usually do, and when chasing I'd probably take a look at both threads.