North American Monsoon 2007

Monsoon has been a big dud down in Tucson so far. This is starting to look like the on-going pattern change of the last 8-10 years or so. Very little in the way of good ol' storms building to the south and moving se/e into the valleys. Monsoons here used to be an almost daily occurrence this time of year. Interesting to note how this pattern change seems to coincide with some other "chase" pattern changes I have noticed over the last 8-10 years, like the Colorado/Nebraska tornado season slowing down and the lack of tropical systems moving into the far western portions of the Gulf. Maybe just a coincidence or more likley an unrelated pattern burp.

Warren
 
I'll second that thought, Warren.
I'm VERY worried for this monsoon season. I told my wife last nite that seemingly NONE of the parameters needed for our monsoon have moved into place. It doesn't do any good for us (in Tucson) to sit with 63 deg. dews when the prevailing winds are out of the northwest...not the southeast. It kicks all the juice back down to Mexico, and we sit here and continue to back and broil.
Even the cacti around our home are very close to dying. And when a cactus dies....brother, you are in a drought. Those things are made by nature to need hardly any water at all. They're hanging by a thread.
Please pray for rain for those of us in the southwest. If we don't get any this summer....all of our mountains that are so terribly crispy dry will explode into massive forest fires at the first hit of lightning.
This is serious down here, folks.
 
its as serious as a heart attack here in SoCal - coastal black sage never showed any greens on it this year - I've lived in CA since 1968 and have never seen as much flamable timber and sage brush as now...this coming next few months will prove disasterous if we dont get the moisture out of mexico

if this weeks fires in CA and UT are any sign, it's already diminishing returns on moisture from this point - rain won't bring back all this flamable material this season

we have just broken all past season rain records for the least on record (in over 100 yrs.) so its hard to know exactly what to expect out here
 
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Correct me if Im wrong, But I had heard somewhere that The Monsoon will favor areas other than Arizona. I cant quote exactly what I read cause I cant remember but am interested if anyone else heard of this.

The Upper high (4 corner) and the low out in the Pacific has been keeping the northwest busy with fire dangers from Dry thunderstorms. Usually after a steady week of this action the monsoon starts, But thats not official, just something Ive noticed over the last 2 years.

Can anyone clarify "Monsoonal Moisture" when the Monsoon hasnt officially started. I have noticed several offices mentioning "Monsoonal Moisture" as the cause for heightened Precip and dewpoints here in the northwest. Only thing I can think of is that the Common 4 corner high is in place and sucking up moisture except for the fact the Moisture isnt from Mexico.

Hopefully the monsoon will start soon and bring some of you some relief, otherwise its going to be one hectic fire season.

-gerrit
 
That 4-Corners High that you mentioned has been quite the culprit early in this monsoon season. The problem is.....it ain't been where it's supposed to be...it's all over the place.
Not only is it out of place...but it's been shifting and moving around like crazy. The last couple of days it's been centered around the Az./ Utah border. I think prior to that, it was centered around the Las Vegas area. Prior to that, it was parked dead center over Az...and it's been in northern Sonora and around the Mex. state of Chihuaha. This, all in the last couple of weeks! Basically, all these positions spell NON-soon for at least us down here in southeastern Arizona.
Also, from what I can garner just from reading all the forecast discussions, etc....the models have been dismally wrong a great deal of the time too. It's gotten so bad, that at the retail business I own...customers who normally would not notice such a thing (blown forecasts) have been speaking up about it. And without prodding by me, I might add!
Yeah...I get really whiney and mentally stressed each year when the monsoon doesn't do what I want it to! I've loved our summer thunderstorm seasons since moving here from Nebraska in '61. But man....it's got me pretty frantic this year, and I think with good reason.
Maybe I can drudge up some old shaman from around here....pay him a few bucks to do his magic, get myself a good night's sleep...then wake up to the sound of rain. Yeah...that's the ticket. Joel
 
Activity in the Tucson area has improved over the last few days. We're still on the edge of the good stuff, but a short drive to the SE gets me great scenery and shootable storms.

I achieved first light(ning) with my 'new' Bronica 6x6 setup last night. :)

-Moo
 
Monsoon is kickin' in AZ, Tucson, Phoenix, Prescott, Rim Country. Lastnight Phoenix experienced yet another spectacular 2000 ft. sand wall, with lightning and heavy rain. Good stuff.

I'm in need of caffeine. These are late nights!
 
Very Glad to hear the Monsoon is underway finally. Looks like the SPC is on Track with AZ in the Slight risk or See Text outline everyday. Sounds awesome about the action your Getting Susan. I hope a decent push will occur soon for my area. Have yet to see a Decent thunderstorm or thunderstorms thus far since Spring started.

Happy Chasing.....

-gerrit
 
The monsoon has started here as well. We have gotten .87" of rain in the past week and we had our first hail (3/8") of the year yesterday. :D We are actually under a flash flood watch today. This is the first time I can remember this happening, but so far we have only gotten a trace. Glad to hear that the monsoon has started in the Southwest!
 
good to know about monsoon activity

I will be landing in Tucson on Monday and then heading south Tuesday into the Ramsey Canyon preserve and then Patagonia. I will keep my eyes open for some monsoon and thunderstorm chases.
Susan seems to be the one who know where to find them. Are there any best secrets about getting ready to chase them and photograph or is area just like any other storm area which thunderstorms. I hear things are usually very localized.


:::

Monsoon is kickin' in AZ, Tucson, Phoenix, Prescott, Rim Country. Lastnight Phoenix experienced yet another spectacular 2000 ft. sand wall, with lightning and heavy rain. Good stuff.

I'm in need of caffeine. These are late nights!
 
The juice arrived in earnest today during the late afternoon in the LA basin. A few big rain drops is all though. The cool down was great after a hot bright humid day working on cars. Bright purple reddish sunset. Cloud cover was 90% or better late afternoon on. Bases appeared to be 12-15k. The change felt good. It seems it has been an especially long time, especially with dismal rain totals last year.
 
Yea, Plenty-O'-Lightnings lately!

With the full moon coming on, the nighttime scenery will only improve. If conditions are favorable, I'm heading out to Chiricahua NP, White Sands (they close the dunes at 10PM :( ), or maybe even the Bisti Badlands this weekend.

-Greg
 
Monsoon - East of Arizona locations.

I was going to PM this to Greg, but it may be helpful to others out there heading to Southern NM or Far West Texas this Monsoon season...

I'm heading out to Chiricahua NP, White Sands (they close the dunes at 10PM :( ), or maybe even the Bisti Badlands this weekend.

Hi Greg,

Chiricahua ("Cheery Cows") is a great park... but the heart of it, with the tall rock formations, is more than a mile's hike. If you're coming in from the East (i.e., from El Paso... along NM-9 to Animas, then NM-80 to the Portal Road), you'll drive up into the trees. It's a beautiful drive, but it may be tough for lightning photography unless you're in the right place at the right time.

SE Arizona is full of wooded spots. Patagonia Mtns is one of them. So is the area around Bisbee. It opens up quite a bit around Douglas/Agua Prieta. In fact the road from Douglas up to Bisbee has a TON of Octotillo which must be beautiful when they're in bloom.

White Sands seems like an ideal lightning photography location, but convection tends to blow up early over the Sacramento Mtns ("Sacs") to the east and along the spine of the San Andres, between Las Cruces and Truth or Consequences (TorC), to the west. White Sands sits in the bottom of the Tularosa Basin, a narrow valley between these two mountain ranges. Convection usually dies down by sunset. An ideal situation occasionally happens where convection in the high elevation in Northern/Central NM spreads south during the overnight hours. Then you may have a shot.

Here's a tip-- you can stay overnight in the Dunes if you get a backcountry camping permit. I did this once to shoot under the full moon. They didn't check for camping supplies, and I was just off midnight shifts and was happy to roam the park all night behind the locked gates. This is also the only way to catch sunrise at the dunes. Only problem is, you're locked in... but there's a phone to call a ranger by the gates if you need to get out in an emergency.

A good overlook is just past (east of) the crest of the San Agustin Pass on US-70 east of Las Cruces... great view of all the eastern sky. Just a little downhill from the Pass is Aguirre Springs, a BLM Rec area. You can drive in quite a ways any time of day, with excellent views of the Organ Mtns to the west and south, and the Tularosa Basin to the east, with "unspoiled" desert along the road. Eventually you'll hit a gate which leads the rest of the way to the campground, and this is locked at night. This is a perfect place to watch the sunrise, especially if there has been overnight convection, or a backdoor cold front in the Winter, as the sun will rise clear over the Tularosa Basin, and light up the Organ Mountains and whatever clouds are hovering around them, or being forced up and over them in easterly flow behind a backdoor front in the Wintertime.

Baylor Canyon Drive is a dirt road that runs from the SE end of Las Cruces (take the University Ave exit off I-25, then head east and keep going, past "A-Mountain" and onward, it eventually turns into Dripping Springs Road, then curves north and parallels the Organ Mountains. Great place for Sunsets backlighting the awesome jagged profile of the Organs. Plus, you may be able to get some lightning shots with the Organs in them from farther back on University Ave, near A-Mountain, looking east towards the Organs.

A few times a year, you'll get the "perfect setup" over the Rio Grande Valley between Las Cruces and El Paso, where you'll end up getting numerous converging outflows from daytime convection in the higher terrain to the West, North, and East colliding right over the Valley at night. The resulting convection can be long-lasting and intense.

Good views can be had from Scenic Overlooks on either side of the Transmountain Road (Loop 375 through the Franklin Mtns) on the northern edge of El Paso. (East and West) (example)

Also check out Scenic Drive on the southern edge of the Franklins, with a great overlook of downtown El Paso's skyline and the sea of orange lights in Cd. Juarez behind it. There's several overlooks... one in a Park on the west end of the road, another right on the Ridge Line, and others on the east side heading back down. (example 1) (2) (3) (4)

Lightning photography can be tricky with the intense foreground lightning, as you may be tempted to go with a slower ISO or smaller aperture to gain longer exposures. However, as I learned the hard way, this only works for relatively close-by storms. Distant lightning will appear very dim, or not at all if you go with a small aperture or low ISO, or you'll catch the lightning, but the cloud base will not be lit up... making it look like there's lightning coming out of thin black air. Digital is excellent for this... you can quickly figure out the best compromise exposure, and then you can always delete the "blank" frames if you end up with shorter exposures.

Other good lookout locations in the area include around UTEP, overlooking I-10 (example1 and 2) and behind the Sunland Park Mall in west El Paso (exit 13 off I-10), also overlooking I-10 (example). A good wide, sweeping view of the Rio Grande Valley and the Franklin Mtns, looking east, can be had from atop the Mesa west of the Valley, near Santa Teresa, NM. Take Exit 8 on I-10 (Artcraft Rd), head west... you'll go through several interchanges, over the NM state line, then suddenly begin heading uphill with a curve to the left. Pull a U-Turn when you can towards the top (beware it's a divided highway!), and there's bound to be a pull-off where RTV'ers like to mess about in the dunes. (Example 1) (2)

Several photos from some of the locations I've mentioned can be found through my web page.

Good luck, and hope this helps someone out.

-Mike
 
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