North American Monsoon 2007

[Gerrit Gulden]

Its almost that time of year when The Southwest starts getting active with thunderstorms stretching from Mexico up to The Canada Border. Ive been watching the Dewpoints in Arizona and they are barely at 30 degrees. For those that dont know, the dewpoints need to reach a 55 degree dewpoint for three days straight for the Monsoon to be offical. For myself the Monsoon is exciting due to thunderstorms that can last well into the night and for the last 2 years brings Severe Weather to my area, thus many new lightning photos after each storm. Im sure there are many of you that depend on the Monsoon season for Rain, and the lightning photography opportunities. I still find myself amazed at the haboobs when they occur. Hopefully I will travel to Arizona during the monsoon and get some lightning photos taken. Maybe this year, not sure yet.

My Annual drive to california is coming up this Saturday thru the following Saturday. Was hoping for an early start to the Monsoon which makes the long drive much funner and enjoyable. Im crossing my fingers.

Whats your thoughts on the Monsoon this year? Are you looking forward to this years Monsoon? Anyone going to Arizona this year specifically for lightning photography?

-gerrit

 

[Joe Zemek]

Way too early to be looking at Tds. The typical monsoon start time is mid-July. When you start to see a persistent ridge center over the TX Panhandle, Tds can start advecting into AZ/NM and then UT/CO. It takes a week or so of persistent Td advection to build up to the official monsoon ignition point of three consecutive days of Td = 55+.

If you come to the state to shoot the monsoon, Tucson, Wickenburg, and Flagstaff-Winslow are good staging areas. Some like the Chino Valley north of Prescott.

 

[Gerrit Gulden]

Woke up today and found this Message in my Local NWS discussion,

THIS WILL ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO UTAH WITH
NRN EDGE POSSIBLY REACHING ID/UT BORDER ON WED.

I kept out further mention which would indicate a forecast. I noticed this last year as well. They tend to Call out the Monsoon way before it has officially started or shows signs of starting.

If you come to the state to shoot the monsoon, Tucson, Wickenburg, and Flagstaff-Winslow are good staging areas. Some like the Chino Valley north of Prescott.

Will keep these cities in mind. My Cousin lives in Pheonix, hopefully these areas are all close by. Thanks...

-gerrit

 

[Susan Strom]

Wickenburg is close to Phx.

11 years of chasing monsoon I have some things worked out for Arizona:

I favor:

July:
Tombstone/Benson and Willcox playa (the SE corner of AZ gets the best flow)
Tucson and points east along I40 to the NM state line
Chiricahua Natl Monument
South central deserts (Marana for northernmost point)
Safford and the eastern ranges
Florence and south to Tucson

For August, to the above list add:
Carefree/Cave Creek, New River, Black Canyon City
Mazatzal and Four Peaks wildnerness
Chino Valley/Verde Valley/Prescott/Sedona/Cottonwood
Wickenburg
Bradshaw range
Verde and Salt river lakes
Central Deserts (Casa Grande and remote mtn ranges)
Globe/Miami
Superior
Florence

For Sept, to the above list add:
White Tank mountains
Harquahala Valley
Gila Bend
Tonopah
Eagle Tails
I8 corridor

You can see a pattern. Monsoon spreads west as season progresses. Sept can also usher in broken up tropical stuff from the Baja which juices up the atmosphere.

Not favored for lightning photography: Flagstaff (unless there is a certain setup over the Kaibab Plateau). Flagstaff tends to get monsoon storms at noon into the afternoon, not conductive for lightning photography. Plus it is alpine so tons of trees unless you get out east to the Painted Desert or west to Ash Fork. An H over the Kaibab could change the setup allowing storms at night in these areas so watch for that. The Mogollon Rim and Payson is all alpine too, however still, because of the 2000' cliffs you can stand on there are views that will take your breath away. However the Rim is the largest Ponderosa pine forest in the world so you have to get creative.

Not favored: Any border town or area. There is too much going on down there, best to chase points north. Also, Organ Pipe Natl Mon was voted most dangerous park in America, because of the drugs, human smuggling and illegal crossings (even in summer can you imagine). No need to chase there anyway, 114,000 sq miles in AZ to play with so best stay clear of border areas. Besides, there are 20 lifetimes worth of photo opportunities points north. You won't get bored!

 

[Mike McDonald]

Here is today's forecast for the "Southwest Monsoon" by Rocky Mountain Predictive Services, which is the fire weather forecasting branch of the federal land management agencies in Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. This link provides text and maps.

http://www.blm.gov/colorado/rmafwx/southwestmonsoon.pdf

"According to the latest model information, flow becomes more favorable for monsoon moisture to move northward into southern sections of the RMA by July 2, 2007. This would result in an increase in lightning activity and eventual increase in moisture. We will continue to monitor the development and progression of the monsoon and update this product as needed."

Mike

 

[David Drummond]

Didn't we see a talk at the chaser convention a couple years back about the Mogollon Rim area being favorable for tornadoes as well?

 

[Susan Strom]

Maricopa County, of which Phoenix metro is included, takes the cake for the rare AZ tornado. Maricopa County is made up entirely of desert or desert foothills. Yavapai County does see a good share. Yavapai Cty is closer to the Rim, and includes Prescott. Although Yavapai is not "Rim Country" (alpine), it is higher elevation than Maricopa.

http://www.tornadoproject.com/alltorns/aztorn.htm

Coconino County is in the Rim Country. The Rim is all alpine...however...in my opinion it takes the cake for orographic lift without a doubt. You can see the stuff just cooking up there all day. Then, if conditions support, the action rolls off the Rim and into the deserts at night making a long happy chase night for me.

 

[David Drummond]

I wish I could find a link to that. I am pretty sure it was one of the NWS guys from AZ that gave the talk. Something about the orographics in that area favored rotating storms or something like that.

 

[Susan Strom]

You know now that you mention it I remember something like that too. I think he was referring to Yavapai County (Prescott). Yavapai County isn't technically the Rim Country, it is subalpine, but it is very close to the Rim. Yavapai seems to get hammered, and get the big stuff like large hail and well-formed storm structure. So that brings up an interesting question...is Maricopa County #1 just because the county is so darn big? I think that might have something to do with it. Things do get pretty wild around here during monsoon, but Yavapai gets gnarly too, I think even more so per square mile. Usually when people refer to the Rim Country, they're talking about the alpine regions in Apache Sitgreaves forest and Coconino County, but Yavapai is darn close that it would be impacted by orographic lift and other mountain weather.

 

[Ilya Neyman]

Great to see a monsoon discussion!

One of the most exciting wx times of the year in the SW! I'm from southern California, the high desert region in the Antelope Valley which gets in on the action from time to time as well. Growing up, the monsoon storms were some of the best, as this is practically the time for thunderstorms in this part of the country. Not only were the storms themselves interesting for the mere convective reason but they do get rather intense with the occasional storm up to severe levels as well. Cloud to ground lightning, flash flooding, damaging microbursts, as well as the occasional hail and even tornadoes are a product of these intense summer-time storms. Gulf surges out of the Gulf of California bring dewpoints up into the 60s and 70s across the low deserts of Arizona and southern California and when combined with temperatures in the 90s to 110s makes for truly stifling heat indices!

It will be nice to have this forum going for the season and per monsoon events!

Watchin' for the first puffs of Cu over the mountains!

 

[David Wolfson]

The "best" monsoon tornados seem to occur durning the shift-in/shift-out periods when the shear is best. Main season ones are mostly of the landspout variety when they occur.

The Maricopa County stats are interesting, but I think all the older reports are a bit suspect; and note that none are listed for the five years 1996-2000. Also, with all of the counties you want to separate the cold core/winter tornados from the summer tornados. Population and county size are certainly factors IMO.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The best (isolated) lightning storms generally occur at the beginning and end of the monsoon cycle. This is usually the second and/or third week in July and the last week in August or the first week in September. Once the deep moisture is here, a pattern of early turnover, worked over atmosphere. or MCS debris from Sonora can cause extensive cloud cover during the peak heating hours and storms are not as lightning intensive. (More tropical). This can persist for days or weeks and ruin all PM chances in certain areas. You may need to travel to find clear areas -- or areas near the edge of activity/moisture where the sky is clear. Early storm development (by noon) will usually shut down the rest of the day for good PM lightning.

Back-door cool fronts or outflows from old MCS's can really get things going if the timing is right at sunset. Watch the upper flow from the E/SE for disturbances in circulation -- especially at H5. This seems to be a big factor in massive lightning storms and rare tornadic events. The only real tornado risk is associated with early or late monsoon storms when the upper flow turns SW before drying at the surface, or when a L or tropical system moves in from Baja, especially in late June. Otherwise, gustnadoes and intense dust devils are often mistaken for tornadoes. In addition, cloud bases are generally too high to support tornadoes. If CAPE is high enough, I am sure storm scale flow could produce a brief tornado. (I have seen funnels with some of the more intense storms and MCS's).

On June 21, 1972 a tornado reported as "1000" yards wide hit Eloy, AZ (between Phoenix and Tucson). Fifteen people were injured and 300 buildings were damaged or destroyed. On June 23, 1974 one or possibly two tornadoes struck near San Xavier Mission near Tucson at around 3:30 PM, killing one person. I've seen pictures of this tornado and it was impressive, likely an EF2 or EF3.

If anyone heads out this way, PM me and I'll help you out with locations. Most of the good (higher) vantage points have been taken over by partying gangs and thugs (like "A" Mountain here in Tucson where I shot many of my favorite shots -- it now closes before sunset). The police are afraid of these punks and you are on your own. I would suggest arming yourself if traveling alone or in the middle of the desert at night -- or just avoid certain areas. I've had some scary encounters near the border (which is out of control here). Thank God for CCW permits!

Happy shooting! (Lightning).

Warren

 

[Ilya Neyman]

In southern California there seems to be a tornado maximum, or most favored single region for tornadogenisis near 29 Palms, which is a military base in southern San Bernardino County to the east of the San Bernardino mountain range. This is very likely maximized by local geography and synoptic/mesoscale features, with the Salton Sea and low desert region directly south of the area and a ridgeline coming up from SE to NW toward the San Bernardino mountains to the west. It seems that when other conditions line up and combined with SE low level and uninhibited inflow to storms that develop in this area, tornadoes do occur. I have spoken to people who have chased this region and witnessed the tornadoes here.

The more favorable patterns for tornadic activity in the southern California deserts associated with monsoonal surges have seemed to occur when there is substantial and deep low-level moisture, characterized by 60+ degree dewpoints and some semblance of enhanced shear, usually if the region is undergoing a transition-phase from SE to SW flow aloft, as by this time copious moisture has been able to become established and if a trough grazes the region from the west veering and increasing the upper flow storms have been known to become tornadic. This is a setup similar to the one found east of the Rockies where wind shear and instability is introduced. Additionally, convergence zones/wind shift boundaries/outflows can contribute to the tornado factor. It's very possible that many of the tornadoes associated with the monsoon storms are of the "landspout" variety, caused by intense instability, lapse rates, and vertical vorticity stretching, but there is also evidence suggesting supercellular storms with attendant mesocyclones do occur as well. The tornadoes of California, whether occurring during the cold-season upper level (coldcore) lows or the warm season monsoonal flows, have been recorded to be generally weaker than their Midwestern counterparts, with the F-0 to F-1 variety dominant, and the occasional tornadoes up to F-2 strength. However, there are conflicting sources online that suggest there may have been 2 F-3 tornadoes recorded in California, depending on the site that lists the stats the same tornadoes are listed F-2s on other sources. One of them occurred in Orange County back in February 1978, and the other occurring in Riverside County on August 16, 1973. The latter would have been during either a monsoonal or tropical moisture surge. The area that it is recorded to have occurred in is in a sparsely populated region and for it to have picked up such a rating means that it must have hit something that would equate to F-3 damage. I just went back and looked at the archived upper-air charts via the Plymouth State Weather Center for 8/16/73 and the mid-upper flow does not stick out as anything that one would write home about. If anything, it's a very weak flow environment. I wonder if there is any more information about this event anywhere.

Another important thing to remember is that these desert regions are very sparsely populated, with less-than-ideal road networks and a SIGNIFICANTLY fewer quantity of weather spotters than places in the Plains and Midwest have. As such and in all likelihood there may have been significantly more tornadoes that have occurred than appear in the offical record books.

 

[Susan Strom]

The best (isolated) lightning storms generally occur at the beginning and end of the monsoon cycle. This is usually the second and/or third week in July and the last week in August or the first week in September.

That's right. It seems to play out like that year after year. It's a good point to bring up too for anyone considering coming out; the monsoon comes in a burst & break pattern. During the burst period, thunderstorms at most occur every other to every three days. During the break pattern, drier air moves in. A week can go by, even in August, without decent lightning and rain chances (of course, driving where things are more active orographically helps lightning chances).

Here are some downsides of monsoon chasing: Intense heat, burst & break behavior, some creepy places. Bring patience and awareness. Actually though I see these kind of as upsides...if it was easy, everybody would be doing it and it would be boring. Monsoon chasing can be hot, hard and frustrating but I like that part, sometimes the way storms seem to thumb their noses makes the chase more appealing and every picture success even sweeter.

These are the plusses: You don't need a supercell to get spectacular lightning. Storms are high-based and lightning is easier to see. Terrain features dramatic mountains and vistas. And my favorite plus...chasing is done at night (which is cooler too). The magic hour for me is Midnight-1am. Seems that second waves from outflow or lingering pieces of flanking lines that developed into something are hanging around. The later the hour, the cleaner the air too. In the early evening, sand in the air makes burgundy wine colors:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromFireRidge.jpg
Later at night the sand is gone and the air gets rainwashed:
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromHighEnergy.jpg
After 2am, air traffic is less too.

Have fun!

 

[Gerrit Gulden]

Wow, Just finished with the Tuscon Arizona forecast discussion. Here is a clip...

THE UP SHOT...CURRENT MODELS SHOW NO
MONSOON START THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

Looks like a possible late start. Hope there wrong and the monsoon comes sooner. Crossing my fingers..

-gerrit


quick edit, Maybe there talking about June, forgot that we still have over 8 days left of june. Still looks good, swoooosh.