Nino, Nina, tornadoes and 2010. Is there any relationship?

[Andrea Griffa]

Getting my cue from two old Stormtrack threads posted by me:

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=15092

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11340

I think that we could use ONI index to try to give an answer to the question of this topic.

We could individuate some patterns: making a little study about ONI index (Changes to the Oceanic Niño Index) I found that the best pattern to have an high number of tornadoes during the month of April and May is a weak-moderate Nino during the firs 6 months of the year and a moderate-strong Nino in the next 6 months. The typical example is 2004, 1982,1991, 1994. This idea is supported by the fact that in those years the number of tornadoes has been high and during the months of April and May we had on average more tornadoes than other years with a different ENSO pattern.

Te me the best tornado producer pattern is 2004 like pattern: first 4-5 months with weak Nino followed by 11-13 months with moderate-strong Nino(2004, 1982,1991, 1994).

As for 2009 I would make a comparison with 2006 Oni pattern: first 4-5 months with weak Nina followed by months with weak/moderate Nino. This could be probably the reason why these 2 seasons have been so weak in terms of tornado days (both 2006 and 2009 season had long death ridges). Similar patterns and similar seasons.

Now, what is the most similar pattern to 2010 Oni index forecast? Good question.
The Oni index pattern forecast, so far is a moderate nino for all the 2010. That could be similar to 2003 pattern.

This is the statistical models forecast for 2009- 2010.

OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4

This is 2002-2003 Oni pattern

[FONT=verdana,arial]Year[/FONT] 2002[FONT=verdana,arial]
JAS[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 1,0
ASO[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 1,1
SON[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 1,3
OND[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 1,5
ND[/FONT] 1,4


[FONT=verdana,arial]Year[/FONT] 2003
[FONT=verdana,arial] DJF[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 1,2
JFM[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 0,9
FMA[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 0,5
MAM[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 0,1
AMJ[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] -0,1
MJJ[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 0,1
JJA[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 0,4
JAS[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 0,5
ASO[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 0,6
SON[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 0,5
OND[/FONT][FONT=verdana,arial] 0,6
ND[/FONT] 0,4

So, I could expect a may 2010 like 2003. I could expect the last days of April and first 15 days of May with many severe weather episodes with an high number of tornadoes.
However it's still too early to make any conclusion as there is not a clear forecast on 2010 Oni pattern yet. Let's see on February 2010.
Any thoughts about this?

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Ehi chasers, what do you think about this one? Too complicated or do you rate it a crazy theory?

 

[rdale]

I think there's more to predicting storm seasons than looking at El Nino indicators. If EN was the only parameter needed for chase outlooks then you hit the nail. But honestly I think there is more to it (starting with the "why").

Not deterring you from developing and posting these theories, but there's not a lot to discuss with them. If you read the hurricane thread, people are now comparing this to 2003 because of the fall hurricane in 2002 combined with EN - yet that's not even on your list. So many years, so many other parameters

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I think there's more to predicting storm seasons than looking at El Nino indicators. If EN was the only parameter needed for chase outlooks then you hit the nail. But honestly I think there is more to it (starting with the "why").

Not deterring you from developing and posting these theories, but there's not a lot to discuss with them. If you read the hurricane thread, people are now comparing this to 2003 because of the fall hurricane in 2002 combined with EN - yet that's not even on your list. So many years, so many other parameters

That's sure, I don't want to give a too simplistic approach but it's even true that in the past years with similar ONI patterns had similar tornado seasons and you cannot rule out this element. And I think this is very important for long term forecasts.

I make you an exemple: this year I found that ONI index forecast was similar to 2006 one so I figured out that it could exist a relationship; I immediately thought that there was the possibility to have long death ridges in may. Actually I was not completely convinced with this theory and I didn't take it too seriously. Anyway we all know how did it go.


On the other side I think there's a lot to discuss with this theory: it would be nice that someone else made the same reasoning I did to try to find other similar patterns.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

Ehi chasers, what do you think about this one? Too complicated or do you rate it a crazy theory?

I think you hit it spot on Andrea. However my hunch as to why isn't "educated" enough for anyone else to accept with any validity...but afterall I'm no meteorologist...im just a graphics design major with a weather fetish.

But I posted up the similarities in 2002 and 2009 being El Nino years, with both years having late Hurricanes form in Oct/Nov.

Spring 2003 was pretty active, and there was definitely a major outbreak that year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2003_tornado_outbreak_sequence

I'm confident we could see the same or similar patterns in 2010.

Friend of mine is in the Tennessee National Guard in Smyrna, TN and he is part of an Emergency Natural Disaster Team, and his entire unit was placed on alert for 2010. So apparently someone shares my confidence.

All I have to say to Mother Nature is ...Bring It on Like Donkey Kong!!!!!

 

[rdale]

It's a slow day at the office I went through the 1960's and defined any spring with 10 or more big days per year as an "outbreak year" from http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/papers/SLS22/verboutetal.pdf

I compared to the previous year's EN/LN status.

1959 - Neutral, 1960 - No
1960 - Neutral, 1961 - Yes
1961 - Neutral, 1962 - Yes
1962 - LN, 1963 - No
1963 - EN, 1964 - Yes
1964 - LN, 1965 - Yes
1965 - EN, 1966 - No
1966 - Neutral, 1967 - Yes
1967 - Neutral, 1968 - No
1968 - EN, 1969 - No
1969 - EN, 1970 - No

So using El Nino years, 1 out of 4 followed with "big" tornado events the next year. And those three "non-big" years were some of the quietest years on record. So using this table, El Nino in one winter is much more likely to have a strong negative impact on the following chase season.

Andrew - from what I understand about those NG teams, they designate a few every year to be on alert and rotate among all the teams in the U.S. Is that the case here, or are you saying they are actually being deployed across the country for storm recovery next year?

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

my friend Dave (the guy in the TNG) says they have been on standby notice as a response team to go South to assist with Hurricane Damage for the 2010 Season, however, he says it's not limited to Hurricane Damage, but his area where he and his unit would go for support are inclusive of all severe weather and natural disasters, and apparently every Nov they get the upcoming year's severe weather outlook briefing, and the meterologist (No idea if it's from local or military or private Meteorologist) told them in the briefing that their is sufficient data and evidence to suggest a more active season in 2010. but I dunno, I'm not there so I don't know what all data/evidence they're talking about or referring to. Just found it interesting, that things "appear" to be falling in to place for a good year.

 

[Clarence Bennett]

Without boring everyone with a bunch of numerics, I do not find anything that says 2010 is going to be the blowout year. I like everyone else am bored to death with what we have been dealt over the last year and have spent quite a bit time looking at past ENSO episodes and also taking into consideration PNA, MJO, NAO, etc. looking for some combination of these that is more favorable. One thing that was a bit depressing for me was the latest ENSO discussion released last Thursday. Absolutely all of the models want to keep this episode strong through March of 2010 and have it staying at near +.05C through June. Seeing this and spending the last 6 months studying all the variables (many hours going back on Ed Berry's blog), I would say that 2010 won't be much different than 2009 aside from tossing in a couple of stronger events. I just do not like what I am seeing or have been seeing for quite some time and quite honestly it doesn't look to change anytime soon.

 

[Randy Bowers]

... and apparently every Nov they get the upcoming year's severe weather outlook briefing, and the meterologist (No idea if it's from local or military or private Meteorologist) told them in the briefing that their is sufficient data and evidence to suggest a more active season in 2010.

When considering overall tornado numbers, 2009 wasn't overly active compared to previous years. If comparing the upcoming season to the previous season (2009) only, I would say that statistically there is a chance of a little more action. Beyond that, there really isn't much evidence to suggest one way or another.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Every year I look at El Nino/La Nina and try to judge what next year will be like, but it doesn't really matter. I wouldn't care if there was only 1 tornado reported next year as long as its photogenic and I am there to see.

What you should really look for is what type of events and setups came in years after what we are having now with El Nino. Not necessarily outbreaks, but just chasers friendly setups. There are 2 really big tornado days here in the TX Panhandle I remember when growing up here. June 27, 1992 and June 8, 1995 (that whole week actually). June 27, 1992 - an F4 tornado with multiple satellite tornadoes tore through the town 12 miles from me (video here). We all know what happen that week in June of 1995. The reason I bring those up is that Sept 91 - June 92 and Aug 94 - Feb 95 were both times we were in an El Nino with an anomaly of atleast 1 degree Celcius (data from the Schaefer/Tatom paper) . There are alot of parameters that come into play, but those are the type of comparison I like to look for.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

It's a slow day at the office I went through the 1960's and defined any spring with 10 or more big days per year as an "outbreak year" from http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/papers/SLS22/verboutetal.pdf

I compared to the previous year's EN/LN status.

1959 - Neutral, 1960 - No
1960 - Neutral, 1961 - Yes
1961 - Neutral, 1962 - Yes
1962 - LN, 1963 - No
1963 - EN, 1964 - Yes
1964 - LN, 1965 - Yes
1965 - EN, 1966 - No
1966 - Neutral, 1967 - Yes
1967 - Neutral, 1968 - No
1968 - EN, 1969 - No
1969 - EN, 1970 - No

So using El Nino years, 1 out of 4 followed with "big" tornado events the next year. And those three "non-big" years were some of the quietest years on record. So using this table, El Nino in one winter is much more likely to have a strong negative impact on the following chase season.

Andrew - from what I understand about those NG teams, they designate a few every year to be on alert and rotate among all the teams in the U.S. Is that the case here, or are you saying they are actually being deployed across the country for storm recovery next year?

Actually I'm pretty convinced that it's not matter of neutrality, "nina" or "nino", I think it depends on the kind of Oni pattern, that is different. That's what I did think before, but it didn't work out in order to find a relationship with tornado seasons.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Without boring everyone with a bunch of numerics, I do not find anything that says 2010 is going to be the blowout year. I like everyone else am bored to death with what we have been dealt over the last year and have spent quite a bit time looking at past ENSO episodes and also taking into consideration PNA, MJO, NAO, etc. looking for some combination of these that is more favorable. One thing that was a bit depressing for me was the latest ENSO discussion released last Thursday

Here it is not saying it could be an incredible 2010, don't misinterpret me. By the way if 2003 was like 2010 it would be not too good for a chaser if he chased after may 15 till june.
I'm only trying an attempt to see if this theory could have also a little correspondence in the reality.

Every year I look at El Nino/La Nina and try to judge what next year will be like, but it doesn't really matter. I wouldn't care if there was only 1 tornado reported next year as long as its photogenic and I am there to see.

What you should really look for is what type of events and setups came in years after what we are having now with El Nino. Not necessarily outbreaks, but just chasers friendly setups. There are 2 really big tornado days here in the TX Panhandle I remember when growing up here. June 27, 1992 and June 8, 1995 (that whole week actually). June 27, 1992 - an F4 tornado with multiple satellite tornadoes tore through the town 12 miles from me (video here). We all know what happen that week in June of 1995. The reason I bring those up is that Sept 91 - June 92 and Aug 94 - Feb 95 were both times we were in an El Nino with an anomaly of atleast 1 degree Celcius (data from the Schaefer/Tatom paper) . There are alot of parameters that come into play, but those are the type of comparison I like to look for.

I completely agree with you; what is important in chasing is to have also few setups but nice and friendly with photogenic tornadoes.

 

[Marcus Hicks]

I need to be more observent I totally missed this thread.
I am having this discussion with my chase partner and found the discussion to be more interesting than I thought I would. The only data that I can find that seems to be consistant is that there is evidence of geographical shifts in tornado activity within the US when comparing strong El Nino years to La Nina years. I think the key word is strong. There was an article published back in '99 from a Purdue grad student showing more tornadoes in the central and southern plains and the Gulf Coast during strong El Nino years, with a shift to more tornadoes in the lower Midwest, the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and the mid-Atlantic region during La Nina years. This study also showed there is little evidence that El Ninos are associated with more or less tornado activity.
La Nina events, however, seem to favor an above-average annual number of tornadoes in select geographical regions.
Another key finding (from different research) is that tornadoes during a La Nina are stronger and remain on the ground longer than those observed during an El Nino. That means an increased danger of large destructive and deadly tornadoes during the cold phase. There is also an increased risk of "tornado swarms" or outbreaks of 40 or more twisters from a single weather system in a La Nina season. The current ENSO Oct/Nov modeling shows a weakening or ending of an El Nino in May 2010.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Here we go, men, it's the end of 2010 season, and it's time to resume this post to come to a conclusion.

Actually this season we have been so lucky, because 1992 and 2003 ONI pattern is really similar to 2010 one and it gives us better opportunities to make a relationship between these kind of years. If you see the image I've realized that is attached down here you can easily individuate a clear paralelism between the similar Oni Index of these years: both 2010,1992 and 2003 are preceded by two similar years in terms of ONI Index, and that's the key, IMO.
Moreover 2010 is carachterized by a rapid transition from Nino to Nina conditions.

Now, if we try to analyze the type of chasing season of 2003 and 2010, you may find large similarities in terms of numbers of outbreaks and chase territory. Both 2003 and 2010 had a high number of tornado days from may 4 to June 26.

To be sincere I found high similarities between 2003 and 2010; it is sufficient to mention that on Jun 20 we had the Campo, Co tornadoes in Coloroado and on June 21 the Byllings Mt strong tornado and in 2003 we had on June 20 tornadoes in Co and on June 21 tornadoes in Montana.

Taking apart this, I think that we could start to say that this theory is not completely out of mind and I'm kinda anxious to see this developing in the future. What do you think of this conclusion?




Number of tornado days

2003

May 4,5,6,7, 8,9,10,15, 16

June 1,2, 5,6,8,9,13,14,20,21

2010

May 1,2, 10, 12,16,18,19,22,23,24,25
June 5,6,7,8,10,11,13, 17, 20, 21,22,25,26