New Years Monster Storm?

[Glen Romine]

The operational run might be a bit of an outlier - the ensemble suggests considerable spread still with this system:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f144_us.html

What they do agree with is an impressive ridge building in over the Yukon, which favors dislodging a cold air mass to sail into the northern plains - so at least that much appears a good bet. There were meaningful words of caution also in the NCEP discussion today:

...CENTRAL...
ECMWF REMAINS PREFERENCE HERE WITH MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND ESP SFC LOW REFLECTION LIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LAKES REGION WITH MUCH LESS FRONTAL PENETRATION SWD THAN GFS SERIES DAYS 5-7 SUN-TUES.

As such, you might be cautious of GFS forecasts for a few more cycles.

Glen

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Glen Romine
The operational run might be a bit of an outlier - the ensemble suggests considerable spread still with this system:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f144_us.html

What they do agree with is an impressive ridge building in over the Yukon, which favors dislodging a cold air mass to sail into the northern plains - so at least that much appears a good bet. There were meaningful words of caution also in the NCEP discussion today:

...CENTRAL...
ECMWF REMAINS PREFERENCE HERE WITH MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND ESP SFC LOW REFLECTION LIFTING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LAKES REGION WITH MUCH LESS FRONTAL PENETRATION SWD THAN GFS SERIES DAYS 5-7 SUN-TUES.

As such, you might be cautious of GFS forecasts for a few more cycles.

Glen

Yeah, plus it's still a good ways away. Since everyone here seems to be talking about different storms, I may go ahead and start an "Ice Storm" thread, as the ETA and other models are still consistant in the 72-84 hour time frame of a good precipitation event occuring over a shallow cold layer in the Midwest/Great Lakes. Also warranting a new thread, is the fact that this one was designed for a "New Years" event, and now we are kind of straying beyond the original time frame.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

It might not end up being a big wound up nasty blizzard, but it sure looks to cover a large area this week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ta_p60_084m.gif

That would certainly be alot of snow in the very cold regions on the north side of that track, and alot of ice for many. Weeeeeeeeeee.