More bark than bite
Merry Christmas Mike and everyone else on Stormtrack. I've been following the models on this storm for the last 3 days now...and I'm not enthused...this will act to send copious amounts of mild air into the upper midwest, this warm air advected over the deep snowpack of the U.P of Mich. will result in a sloppy R/ZR/IP mix over this area as well as notheast MN. and up toward YQT where signifigant icing may occur.
After all the lake effect powder that has descended upon the snowbelts of the Keweenaw over the last two weeks, a good foot of that will melt as this killjoy of a system hits by New Years Eve....Just when my son Leif and I arrive for some real winter time activities. This 10F temps here in Oklahoma with snow just doesn't cut it with me. If its going to be 10, I want a foot of snow with it!...
Anyway, all the models pretty much coalesce a fairly stout cyclone anywhere from 982 to 990mb. over the Dakota's by 12/30 then weaken it as it gets sheared east by New Years Day over northern downstate Mi. A pretty decent rain event is expected across MN., WI. and The U.P of Mich.
Even a thunderstorm may not be out of the question below an MSP-GRB line.
Still alot can happen as its still 6 days out, one thing is that the GFS has been aggressive in its last few runs of a signifigant surge of artic air after 1/8, with the upcoming systems progged to affect the upper midwest starting later this next week, a fairly good snowpack maybe laid down, so as to slow the modification of the airmass. Another consensus of the long range models is the return of the "pineapple express" after New Years across the southern plains, look for the return to above normal precip. especially for TX. and OK. and just maybe..... a svr wx event for the lower south to start the New Year out in good fashion.
Any thoughts on this would be much appreciated...I just pray that the models in the shorter run move this storm further south and east so we'll stay on the "white" side of things in the CMX area...
Merry Christmas!!!!
