New NWS Hotseat Scenario August 4, 2008

[MatthewCarman]

Here is the newest NWS Hotseat Scenario. This one was difficult for me. I went overboard on the warnings but after seeing the radar I am sure you all will understand why I went crazy on the warnings. This event occured August 4 of 2008 in IL. There is 1-2 more scenarios in production. I am not sure if the Iowa City tornado event scenario I was working on will be completed since I gave up on java but Clark Safford told me he was working on it last I knew. If anyone is interested in trying that one out you can send him a e-mail.

Here is my score:
SVR's
Issued: 22
Verified: 3
Lead time: 3 minutes
Missed 1

TOR's
Issued:6
Verified:1
Lead time: 0
Missed: 1

Here is the link to the new Scenario: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/HotSeat/contrib/patrick01.html

 

[ABlaser]

mine was:


SVR
issued: 14
verified: 2 (blame that on nighttime and weak spotter network west of chicago--thats a mean bow echo)
Lead Time: 9 minutes
Missed: 1


TOR:
issued: 3
verified: 2 (i didn't know i had SRM capability until almost the end of simulation--simply running off base reflectivity)
Lead Time: 3 minutes
Missed: 0

This is an excellant simulation--thanks matt for posting this and hope more chasers get their crack at this.
BTW: can someone tell me what POD and CSI percentages mean?

 

[Chris Kennedy]

This is awesome! They should make an entire game out of it
SVR's
Issued: 12
Verified: 3
Lead time: 5 minutes
Missed 1

TOR's
Issued:5
Verified:2
Lead time: 2 minutes
Missed: 0

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

SVR's
Issued: 8
Verified: 1
Lead time: 1 minutes
Missed 1

TOR's
Issued:4
Verified:2
Lead time: 10 minutes
Missed: 0


Tough on the severe, though I'd take 50% verification on the Tornadoes with 10 minute lead time, the Tornadoes were somewhat easy to see coming the SRM indicated some decent LL turning just North of the Apex. Almost like there was some old ofb or WF that the Bow was interacting with.

 

[Sam Stone]

Hmm, I can't seem to get it to load, I only get a grey box in the middle of the page. Does anyone know if this runs off of Java or something?

Edit: It looks like the filesize is quite large, it may just be taking a while to download.

Sam

 

[Christine Hudnall]

BTW: can someone tell me what POD and CSI percentages mean?

From the Product/Service Description Document:

At the end of each simulation, a final score is given, along with standard NWS severe weather skill scores such as Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate, Critical Skill Index and average lead time.

Here is link to main page for Hot Seat - gives some background info on the HotSeat, as well as there being other scenerio's to try.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/HotSeat/

Hope that helps

 

[Danny Neal]

I am not sure if I should do this.... I still have all the warnings and radar images archived since this storm )) hit my neighborhood hard! In all seriousness I am looking forward to doing this one and seeing my results. I know for one thing....my neighborhood was 3 miles away from a confirmed tornado!

SVR's
Issued: 18
Verified: 3
Lead time: 13 minutes
Missed: 0

TOR's
Issued:9
Verified:3
Lead time: 10 minutes
Missed: 0

 

[ABlaser]

it is java based and does take some time to load due to large file.

Hmm, I can't seem to get it to load, I only get a grey box in the middle of the page. Does anyone know if this runs off of Java or something?

Edit: It looks like the filesize is quite large, it may just be taking a while to download.

Sam

 

[ABlaser]

Thanks Christine- that helped a lot

 

[Clarence Bennett]

SVRs
Issued: 12
Verified: 1
Leadtime: 3 Minutes
Missed: 1

TORs
Issued: 8
Verified: 3
Lead Time: 9 Minutes
Missed: 0

POD: 80%
FAR: 80%
CSI: 19%

 

[MatthewCarman]

For anyone who can't get it to work yes you need java runtime to play the scenario. You may download and install java from the NWS Hotseat scenario homepage. The link was already posted. There is already 4 other scenarios up and 2 more under construction. There another contributer scenario being made and the NWS is making a new scenario. I will post here or start a new thread when a new scenario becomes available for those who enjoy playing the scenarios like I do.

PS. FAR = False alram rate.