New alley seems like it could be forming along N.C. and S.C. coasts.

[calvinkaskey]

Data from hail losses show increased losses. http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/socasp/weather1/changnon.html Another site shows N.C. and S.C. Coasts will increase their chance of seeing severe weather with global warming more than almost any other area of the country. Maybe like another Florida with mostly weak tornadoes.

1. 21:15 - calvinkaskey:
   upward trends in hail crop losses exist in recent years in the Northern High Plains and since about 1970 in certain East Coast states (VA, NC, SC, and GA). Conversely, trends in loss costs in the Midwest and Tennessee Valley states show continuing decreases over the past 30 years.
2. If you look under http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/North-Carolina/map April seems to be hot spot for tornadoes esp with target se of Goldsboro, N.C.

 

[Michael Gavan]

*Blows 14 years of dust off of article*

I wouldn't say it's "new" (http://news.discovery.com/earth/redefining-tornado-alleys.htm) And probably not trending enough to matter. e.g. 3 years of very unremarkable severe weather and 10 years of low hurricane stats can wipe out 25+ years slight upward trends.


When looking at insured losses and sketchy data spanning half a century, it's important to realize that prices and population are not static. Nor is agricultural and building preferences. Planting soybeans and corn instead of tobacco for instance. Or replacing aluminum or cedar roofs with asphalt for example.

But let's be honest with ourselves, Everything east of the Rockies is Tornado Alley, with a minima over Appalachia. "Carolina Alley" exists if for no other reason that being slightly cut off from the rest of dixie alley.

 

[Mike Tobin]

I think as climate changes we will see an increase in tornadoes and severe weather. However I dont think it will be strong enough and happen as much to call it a new alley. I believe the midwest will always be the true tornado alley but remember there is also a dixie alley. This is just my two cents.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Michael got it right. The Atlantic coast has always had elevated activity compared to areas to the north and in the Appalachians. I've had a fair number of chases there, though I have yet to see a tornado in that region. It would be better if the area were more chaseable - the tall trees and few clearings really make it difficult to see anything.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Dan's observation about the Atlantic coast is on the money, and the Carolinas in particular have been no stranger to major outbreaks with strong tornadoes. During a 1984 outbreak, one F4 beast that raked McColl, SC, reportedly was 2.5 miles wide, nearly rivalling the El Reno tornado.* The Carolinas not only get favorable tornadic conditions via mid-latitude cyclones but also hurricane-spawned tornadoes later in the season. Nothing new about any of that. It's just not a place one normally thinks of chasing.
_____________
* NOAA, "Carolinas Tornado Outbreak: March 28, 1984," see the report for Marlboro, Scotland, Robeson, and Cumberland Counties under Selected Tornado Reports, http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/archive/CarolinasOutbreak/.

 

[calvinkaskey]

[QUsurprised"Dan Robinson, post: 329136, member: 10"]Michael got it right. The Atlantic coast has always had elevated activity compared to areas to the north and in the Appalachians. I've had a fair number of chases there, though I have yet to see a tornado in that region. It would be better if the area were more chaseable - the tall trees and few clearings really make it difficult to see anything.[/QUOTE]
Im surprised since NC tornados are relatively long tracked.

 

[calvinkaskey]

I thought ohio would be good in April but seems clear for numbers that nc has more although ohio has more powerful tornadoes. Powerful tornadoes probably tend to move faster and might leave too much damage to follow.