Nervous About Pulling The Trigger

[Jared Orr]

So this Sunday, the 23rd, some friends of mine are driving down from New York to join me (I live in KC, MO) for our first 10 to 14 day chasecation. I'm excited that I finally get to do it... But I'm having the jitters due to the model runs as of late.

Obviously, the stakes are high for such a long trip, so I was wondering if this coming week is going to be a bad idea with the ECMWF and GFS both looking pretty dismal in respect to shear, showing the jet stream remaining mainly over the rockies and (really) high plains...

I know that one should take the mid-range models with a grain of salt, but they seem to have been pretty consistent with this feature, and it's worrying me.

Any words of wisdom for this nervous newbie?

 

[Derek Weston]

So this Sunday, the 23rd, some friends of mine are driving down from New York to join me (I live in KC, MO) for our first 10 to 14 day chasecation. I'm excited that I finally get to do it... But I'm having the jitters due to the model runs as of late.

Obviously, the stakes are high for such a long trip, so I was wondering if this coming week is going to be a bad idea with the ECMWF and GFS both looking pretty dismal in respect to shear, showing the jet stream remaining mainly over the rockies and (really) high plains...

I know that one should take the mid-range models with a grain of salt, but they seem to have been pretty consistent with this feature, and it's worrying me.

Any words of wisdom for this nervous newbie?

Think the mid/upper level shear is strong enough in the western plains. Bigger worry will be capping. (see warm 700 temps) Of course that does have to do with the positioning of the system you speak of...

That said, I'm still considering chasing it here... For a while models weren't picking up on much past the outbreak last week. This, obviously, has changed quite a bit. Wouldn't get too overly worried yet. (although it certainly looks like we'll have to deal with some ridging in the center US -- so don't be afraid to go north)

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Jared,

I wouldn't sweat it one bit. With a 10-14 day chasecation, there is plenty of time to chase several events. And don't forget...you don't need a MDT risk or a forecasted outbreak to catch great storms. Often times, "big days" mean super large crowds and disappointment when you bust. Smaller set-ups can bring great rewards...

And last but not least, don't forget the ol' adage: if you aren't out there, you won't see a thing.

The best advice I can give you: get excited and get ready for a great chase vacation! Soak in every moment...and you're guaranteed to have a great time.

Enjoy!
Bryan

 

[Joey Ketcham]

I personally would have suggested going on a tour with a group who is experienced in storm chasing and forecasting. When I was new to chasing, I wouldn't have dared to take anyone with me because I knew I would be subjected to making mistakes and the likelihood of seeing a tornado was slim while placing myself in a dangerous situation was high because of my lack of experience and knowledge.

You said that you were a newbie, so I say that is pretty gutsy of you to take on that responsibility. My hat is off to you, because no way would I want that burden on my shoulder as a newbie.

But, I do think you will have plenty of opportunities to chase and see tornadoes.

 

[Jared Orr]

Thanks for the feedback so far, guys! I love the eagerness to help on these forums.

I personally would have suggested going on a tour with a group who is experienced in storm chasing and forecasting. When I was new to chasing, I wouldn't have dared to take anyone with me because I knew I would be subjected to making mistakes and the likelihood of seeing a tornado was slim while placing myself in a dangerous situation was high because of my lack of experience and knowledge.

You said that you were a newbie, so I say that is pretty gutsy of you to take on that responsibility. My hat is off to you, because no way would I want that burden on my shoulder as a newbie.

But, I do think you will have plenty of opportunities to chase and see tornadoes.

Well, I've been storm chasing off and on for a couple years now, "virtual chasing" even longer, and my friends from NY are all obsessed meteorology students who also go through scenarios via their computers... so the head knowledge is there, but you're right, that's no replacement for real-life experience. In fact, I kinda wish I had somebody to mentor me in the art of storm chasing, but I have had no such luck. That's why I've tried to attend as many spotter training sessions and soak up as many bits of information as I can from places like stormtrack.org. But yeah, we'll see what happens, and we'll definitely play it extra safe for a while. lol

 

[Bob Hall]

Storm Chasing is the ultimate “road trip” and if you can enjoy it with friends so much the better. My magic 8 ball says warmer and drier air which is not so conducive to chaseable weather is afoot. Enjoy the road trip and if the weather decides to cooperate; go get it

 

[Jerry Prsha]

So this Sunday, the 23rd, some friends of mine are driving down from New York to join me (I live in KC, MO) for our first 10 to 14 day chasecation. I'm excited that I finally get to do it... But I'm having the jitters due to the model runs as of late.

Obviously, the stakes are high for such a long trip, so I was wondering if this coming week is going to be a bad idea with the ECMWF and GFS both looking pretty dismal in respect to shear, showing the jet stream remaining mainly over the rockies and (really) high plains...

I know that one should take the mid-range models with a grain of salt, but they seem to have been pretty consistent with this feature, and it's worrying me.

Any words of wisdom for this nervous newbie?

It might be a little late now but I would suggest Tim Vasquez's Storm Chasing Handbook delivered before you go. Read it for learning but also places to stop and visit when you have a "down" day.

There's something to be said of just driving to a remote location where you don't see another soul and listening to the wind and just relaxing.

 

[Mike Smith]

Plan some side trips

Since the action is, at least initially, more likely to be west of KC, plan some side trips. Some suggestions:

• Eisenhower Museum in Abilene
• Flint Hills Tour (national park and Cottonwood Falls)
• Gypsum Hills

Good luck!

 

[Mark DeRidder]

Me too

I too am eager to get my chasecation going sooner than later and I passed on yesterdays storm for next weeks setup which I thought would be better for consecutive chase days. Unfortunately the models are not coming together as I had hoped. Either way, I think I am still planning on leavin Michigan on Sunday morning and hopefully will be in for a few good days of chasing the northern or central plains.

I am bringing 3 buddies, two of which came with me a couple years ago, so it should be a good time no matter what. I am hoping for at least some nice storm structure though!

 

[Patrick Martin]

Jared, I would not sweat it either. My 10 day chasecation kicks off on the 26th, and I'm honestly not all that worried. The long range models have been showing ridging for a while now, and it's not really verified, and now it seems the 12z GFS run is once again backing off of a ridge holding fast for a long period. Don't worry, the devil will be in the details a day or two out, and it could mean some long drives, but isn't that half the fun?

Have fun Jared and hope to see you out on the plains!

 

[John Wetter]

Oh just go! You won't have a chance of seeing tornadoes if you don't go! There is so much to do on the plains, just take it all in. If you see some fun storms, all the better! This pattern isn't all that bad, welcome to June!

 

[John Massura]

The pattern really doesn't look terrible at first very rough glance (at the upper features). Granted, you may be chasing the very high Plains of NM/CO/WY/NE/MT, but those days can be very productive. Large-scale, mean trough over the West, which means you should expect subtle shortwaves moving out relatively frequently. These won't be forecast very well (if at all) until the day of.

Friends and I have chased these setups very frequently over the past five years (our chase vacations have been very unlucky in this regard ), and we try to make the best of it. Data/road coverage is a bit sparser, but we have chased from east of I-25 in NM, all the way north to Billings, MT at times. The terrain is exceptionally beautiful, and chaser convergence concerns are basically zero.

About the only pattern that truly sucks for chasing in May/June (in my experience) is a strong, persistent Hudson bay mega-trough over the eastern third of the country, with persistent NW-ly flow over the Plains. This usually manages to scour out moisture for a few days, before some upslope becomes possible in the southern Plains.

 

[jshields]

ahh the dreaded "potential too low" forecast has just been issued for days 4-8 on the spc site. it still mentions local severe storms but it might be a little tougher to find em. i hate seeing that in the middle of the season