NE Snowstorm-What Are The Chances For Thundersnow?

[Saul Trabal]

It's a quarter to one in the morning as I type this. There is about an inch and a half to 2 niches on the ground now. The New York City/northern New Jersey area is looking at 8-14 inches of snow.

What are the chances for thundersnow with this event?

 

[Andrew Ryan]

None what so ever. I just checked the spc mesoscale analysis and I couldn't find any instability. You need convection in order to get lightning and thunder and without instability, that's not going to happen. But you will get a lot of snow with this storm. These are the times I wish I was back home.

 

[MClarkson]

not good... there is a chance at an isolated strike with that nice band moving now through KDOV and just offshore ACY. This low isnt all that strong though. The last time I remember seeing thundersnow in the northeast was associated with a low that got below 960mb offshore Maine a few years ago.

 

[Dave Marshall]

Your best bet for thundersnow in the NE US is the Lee side of the Great Lakes. Lake Effect squalls are well known for their propensity for thundersnow. Erie PA and particularly just to the south of Erie along the Edinboro Ridge see it several times a year on average. I hear that Lake Ontario around Syracuse/Osawego has a similar situation that's conducive to it.

The SPC will typically miss lake effect thundersnow events because the environment for it is very localized, and has more to do with converging wind fields and orographic lift than it does large scale atmospheric instability.

As for thundersnow with winter low pressure systems, it takes a real butt kicker to get the kind of energy and instability necessary for it. Big Nor'easters and the like.