NCEP long range

[Dan Cook]

lol Mick that link only will work on your computer.

 

[Mickey Ptak]

lol Mick that link only will work on your computer.

I know I am trying to fix it now. LOL

Fixed now. Had a Mickey moment there...

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_1...000_9panel.html

Mick

 

[Karen Politte]

Agreed with Jeff....

You can have as much southerly "flow" as possible for as long as you want prior to a system coming through (like it looks for next week's) - but the fetch is a PoS for the most part. Its not the fact that it's coming from the south that matters - it's the fact that you can follow the fetch back onshore between Louisiana and Florida that *REALLY* concerns me.

KR

 

[Mickey Ptak]

A little closer look...

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9d/mrf_1000_9d.gif

I know where Mr. Snyder is coming from, but by the 9th day I don't see the trajectories real close to the east coast with the exception of FL. Looks to me that the southerly winds could be coming from the southern part of the Gulf. We shall see...

Mick

 

[Karen Politte]

For an example of favorable vs. unfavorable fetches, take a look at this graphic someone with no MS Paint talent whatsoever (me) put together:

http://www.stormskies.com/WindFetch01.bmp

The RED area signifies where I do NOT want my southerly flow coming from.
The YELLOW area indicates where I DO want to see my southerly flow coming from - where the optimum flow would come from for peak moisture return.

Obviously I did not shade the rest of the GoM because one is assuming that any air travelling into the Southern Plains would automatically be travelling over this region - no matter where it's fetch is from. What's IMPORTANT is the source region for your air.......to a reasonable degree.

Enjoy,

KR

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Thought I'd bring this back to discuss the overall pattern this upcoming week and beyond. Looks like we will see severe weather every day across the S. Plains this week, and I think at least one of those will be a big day, if not more than one. Especially if there are remnant boundaries to play with on some days, which I think will come into play sooner or later this week to lead to some pretty nasty weather. But I'm also looking ahead to the last of this month, early next. Looks like the Subtropical Jet is zooming overhead by the 28th or 29th and there are some 500mb waves moving through every so often. Looks like the Southern Plains is in for an active season after all