Joshua Nall
EF4
Well I would rather people not have to deal with their house coming apart around them or possibly being injured. It's not just about surviving. Even so, for many people it is the best thing to do.
Mike Morgan's Comments via WeatherBrains 404
- Thread starter Danny Neal
- Start date
rdale
EF5
I would rather my house come apart and injure me in an EF4 than my car get thrown 300 yards with me inside of it in an EF4. One hurts me, one kills me.
Not surprising to most, I'm sure, but the above quote sums it up: when disaster strikes, people tend to stop thinking rationally. That's also what leads people to making fatal mistakes.
A summary statement in reply to Joshua N.'s first comment is that people should learn to think for themselves and not wait until the event is happening before deciding what to do. As Rob's quote above shows, taking a minute to consider the consequences of your actions should leave you at the conclusion that it's a better idea to stay home if you have a reasonable structure, wooden or otherwise.
rdale
EF5
...and if you don't have reasonable structure, leave when the watch is issued, not when the warning comes out...
Joshua Nall
EF4
Yeah, I'm just saying there is not a one best thing for everyone to do. A lot of people live in smallish wooden structures on pier and beam as do most of my family here. I could not in good conscience as a TV personality or otherwise instruct people who live in such housing or less to shelter in place on big days, with strong tornadoes. Most areas are not that populated, all someone would need is an hour instruction on how to read a radar app, and then get on the road well ahead of time and stay out of the way. A tornado is not going to throw your car if you are no where near it. This however obviously wouldn't work around OK City or Dallas, etc.. I've also suggested they could go to the hospital and hang out in the visitors lounge near the center for a couple hours. These are personal decisions they would have to make.
Stan Rose
EF5
I disagree with those statistics. Do you seriously think that if your house is completely leveled and/or blown away, that you would have a 99% percent survival rate? To accurately determine that, you need to know how many people were in in the house when it was destroyed--that isnt accounted for in the statistics you quote. The fact is, many people are not at home when their house gets blown away. Not to mention the fact that even if you survive, losing limbs or ending up paralyzed are not good options. I agree that the best course of action is to leave early when traffic congestion is a potential issue.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I think this particular issue with Mike Morgan is only the beginning of future problems because of the way people are being educated about severe weather safety and how to react in a timely manner.
The public is beginning to make emergency shelter and evacuation decisions based on their uneducated assessments of live tornado coverage. They should begin to take actions from the watch period through the warning period -- not waiting until the last moment to see a live report confirming it's an EF-1 or EF-5 tornado -- when its only a mile from their home. This is especially true on high risk days.
I spoke to several people following the Moore, OK tornado who told me they were watching the live coverage and waited until the last moment to seek shelter because "they thought it (tornado) would miss them based on street level coverage. One of them survived in a storm drain.
Don’t get me wrong; I think live television coverage is a critical part of the entire survival plan, but too many news stations and cable outlets are pushing the “yahoo / close-up” ratings factor instead of spending more time on the stuff that saves lives.
I witnessed Gary England’s live reports back in May of 1999 and I have no doubt the coverage saved many lives. He became an instant hero to me. The difference now days are that people rely too much on live coverage. What happens when the cable signal or power abruptly ends?
Warren
The public is beginning to make emergency shelter and evacuation decisions based on their uneducated assessments of live tornado coverage. They should begin to take actions from the watch period through the warning period -- not waiting until the last moment to see a live report confirming it's an EF-1 or EF-5 tornado -- when its only a mile from their home. This is especially true on high risk days.
I spoke to several people following the Moore, OK tornado who told me they were watching the live coverage and waited until the last moment to seek shelter because "they thought it (tornado) would miss them based on street level coverage. One of them survived in a storm drain.
Don’t get me wrong; I think live television coverage is a critical part of the entire survival plan, but too many news stations and cable outlets are pushing the “yahoo / close-up” ratings factor instead of spending more time on the stuff that saves lives.
I witnessed Gary England’s live reports back in May of 1999 and I have no doubt the coverage saved many lives. He became an instant hero to me. The difference now days are that people rely too much on live coverage. What happens when the cable signal or power abruptly ends?
Warren
rdale
EF5
Stan Rose
EF5
Yeah, Rob---that's the paper i was referring to. That study based the fatality rate on the # of homes, not the # of people who were in the homes when they were destroyed. Big distinction! Saying that you will have a 90-99% chance of survivial if you're in a house leveled by EF4-EF5 is incorrect--there is no evidence to back that statement up. I just pointed this out to C.D, and he keeps asking me to produce evidence to the contrary, which is absurd of course, it aint my responsibility to come up with a good statistic, im just pointing out that his statistic is being misconstrued!
TiffanyR
EF0
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2013
- Messages
- 12
From James Spann: Tonight's special Wednesday night edition of WeatherBrains is a no-go. Damon Lane of KOCO-TV in Oklahoma City and Harold Brooks of NSSL will join us next Monday, Nov 4. Gary England of KWTV-TV has opted out, at least for now. We will continue the discussion of the 5/31 El Reno, OK that started with Mike Morgan last week. Don't miss it.
From WeatherBrains FB page: Tonight's Wednesday Special RESCHEDULED! Due to the risk for severe weather affecting some of our guests, we our special episode to continue our El Reno discussion has been postponed to Monday 11/4. Stay tuned for further details.
From WeatherBrains FB page: Tonight's Wednesday Special RESCHEDULED! Due to the risk for severe weather affecting some of our guests, we our special episode to continue our El Reno discussion has been postponed to Monday 11/4. Stay tuned for further details.
Dave Gallaher
EF5
This is exactly what happened in sections of Alabama on 4/27/11. In situations where tornadic cells were following through areas already damaged, many went unwarned. I have yet to hear of any proposal to offset this possibility in the future, though - fortunately - days like 4/27 are not frequent.
Jacob Ferden
EF4
The sad reality from that day is that there is a theoretical extreme of no options. If your power, internet, phone, weather radio signal, and TV signal are all knocked out, and radar coverage is knocked out....watch the sky and stay by a shelter, I guess. There were areas on 4/27 where it wasn't far from that.
Tim Carley
EF0
This topic is about as charged as you can get, and it is going to be with us for a long time. The tone of WeatherBrains 404 caught me off gaurd. I still dont know what to make of it. In the end you have to feel for all involved because there is no right answer. I have an opinion, like most of you do, but Ill just keep it to myself! My biggest question is what the fatality rates for a vehicle hit by an EF4-5 would be. As Stan stated, 99% survivability (structure) is probably unrealistic. However, a 10% fatality rate may be on the high side. Assume that a 2 lane hwy could have as many as 1000 vehicles (2500 people) at a bumper to bumper stop over one mile. A 2% fatality rate would produce 50 deaths over that mile. That was the rate from the 79 Wichita Falls tornado. They also found a .03% fatality rate for improved structures and an 8.5% rate for mobile homes. All of these numbers seem low to me. The variables are so tough to nail down, as Stan points out. Short of destroying a lot of vehicles with dummies in them, its really hard to come to a solid conclusion. If anyone has a good study that they would like to site I would be interested in reading it.
Tim Carley
Tim Carley
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