May or June

[Drew Terril]

Were money no object and I was free to dedicate the entire period (which makes for a nice pipe dream as a truck driver), I would imagine that I would enjoy northern plains chasing. With that said, the vast majority of my success has been either second season or early season. Aside from only seeing power flashes from the Valley Brook tornado in 2015, Forgan in 2019 was first May chase that I would consider a resounding success. I still haven't had a successful June chase. I've had a number of tornadoes in April, several in October and November, a few in March.

So I guess I say that to say that I'd take June if it meant I would knock off the goose egg for the month. But based on my track record, I've had marginally better success in May, although nothing compared to other months.

 

[samuel stone]

May because I love a good synoptic setup, they appeal to my nostalgic weather years where I would spend hours reading case studies about events like 3/13/90 and 4/26/91, and then my memories of chasing events like 5/29/04 and 5/23/08. I thoroughly understand the positives of June mesoscale events in the western and Northern reaches of the high plains. But something about a big dynamic synoptic wave with a big juicy warm sector just makes me feel like all is right with the world. Hasn't happened much lately. Even if it means faster storm motions and more chasers.

 

[John Farley]

I decided to be somewhat scientific and went back through my archives to find my best tornado days. Half of them were in May. Next most frequent were April and June, with a smattering of other months with great days. So based on that, I would say May, hands down.

 

[JL Gacke]

I want to say half and half though that's not the question and so I'll pick June.
Synoptic setup's imo seem more stabilized and storms aren't hauling the mail like a banshee. As well, May High Risk days turning sour/bust or into HP messes.
But with global warming, drought and the the awful freeze TX just received, to me it's anybody's guess.
A bit off topic; in consideration of Jeff Duda's eloquent commentary perhaps there could be a sub-forum for “Colorful” (PC) anecdotes? Might keep spirits up until things begin to fire?

 

[Paul Lemery]

May. Peak tornado activity is mid May. More opportunities.

 

[Bob Schafer]

May. Peak tornado activity is mid May. More opportunities.

I know this is correct, but I have a question: Could someone easily filter out the May tornadoes that occurred outside of the most chaseable regions and see how the numbers look then? I have a hunch that a lot of May tornadoes drop in Arkansas, Missouri forests, Kentucky, etc. and into June you don't see so much of that.

 

[Tony Laubach]

That's a tough one... I can make a case for either month... historically through my career, May has been the most generous to me and has included days such as May 29 2004, May 24 2016, May 25 2012, May 29 2008, and several instances of 'that one week in May'. June has had several amazing days (Pilger, Goshen, Aurora included), but I think I've largely missed out on good June chasing through my career, but June offers some great opportunities in the high plains and northern plains, and those tend to be less chased by crowds, which adds appeal.

So the question; May or June... you choose one. May has been good to me, always has. But there is an appeal with June for me, and given I am in the back half of my career, quieter, less crowded days in the high/northern plains sound much more relaxed to me; that said, I will happily acknowledge how good May has been to me, but I would choose June.

Now to tweak the question, if I had ONE MONTH to pick, easily, that would be the last two weeks of May into the first two weeks of June.

 

[James K]

I think I'd go with June simply because I very likely wouldn't venture far from home...
And especially anymore, summer (& stuff like thunderstorms that go with it) doesn't really get going to June here.

 

[Jeff House]

The last two weeks of May have the highest number of tornadoes by climo. These weeks are also the most chase-able in that sequences tend to set up within driving distance of each other. Also the forecasting still has some synoptic characteristics, though it's getting into meso-scale season.

June has some photogenic beauties, less chaser convergence, and some gorgeous High Plains or even almost West background settings. However June is harder to forecast, the set-ups are often farther apart, and sometimes more days apart. Latter two I guess are a compliment (travel days) but not on limited time. June also offers the personal accomplishment of finding incredible meso-scale gems.

I would say June is the hottie one longs for. May is the one who likes you back. I buy the June votes from Rockies and High Plains members; otherwise, some snobbery in here TBH.

Bottom line: Much as I hate the crowd and jawbone about going in June, May 15-31 is THE super peak of the season.

 

[Jessica B.]

Based on a climatology standpoint, I do prefer the later parts of May. That's usually where the peak of tornado season usually happens. But I also see a case for the first part of June.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Thanks a lot @Jeff House , just when I was starting to feel better about having to take a later trip this year LOL

Seriously though, I agree, and that's what I was getting at with my earlier post - second half of May seems like a slam dunk. Some chasers could be biased by particularly memorable personal chase experiences that happened to occur in June, or could be biased by more recent successes in June, etc. Certainly some chasers like Bob can statistically and objectively point to having had better personal success in June, I'm not intending to question that...

There could be variables at play other than climatology, such as luck, timing, etc., and some chasers specifically identified non-climatological things they like about June - e.g. fewer chasers on the roads, preference of northern Plains, etc. But I think we would all have to agree that strictly on climatology alone, late May is the best choice.

For a two week trip, my personal approach (when I was able to do it) was to set aside the 3rd and 4th weeks of May and the 1st week of June. Head out for 3rd week of May if it looked good and chase May weeks 3 and 4, otherwise wait a week and chase May week 4 plus June week 1.

I do always feel like I'm coming home too early if it's May 31 or earlier - I do like the idea of being out that first week of June - but what the hell, you're always going to miss something before or after a two week chase vacation.

But if I was lucky enough to have a whole month, and could only choose May or June with no overlap, I'd go with May. If I could have overlap, I'd probably swap the first week of May for the first week of June, and do something like May 7th to June 7th.

 

[Michael Towers]

I prefer the Northern Plains over the Southern Plains, advantage June. Nothing beats the convenience of a backyard chase or one that doesn’t require an overnight away from home, advantage June. I hate crowds and while convergence can still suck in June it sucks the most in May, advantage June. I love the relative ease of tracking a slow moving storm versus the high stress and greater danger of tracking a fast moving storm, advantage June. I like longer chase days, ones that go later into the night, advantage June. Given all the advantages June provides over May the last half of May for me has by far been the most productive for memorable storms, memorable tornadoes and memorable chases. If given the choice of a one month period I’d take mid-May to mid-June but if forced to choose the calendar month of May or June I’d take May because for me the rewards of late May have far outweighed all the things I like about June.