Looking for cases

[Jeff Duda]

For my M.S. work, I am simulating convection initiation. For an interesting comparison, I am looking for a few "null" cases, i.e., cases in which convection was forecast to develop, but never did. I figure a good resource for that would be cap busts! Frustrating and annoying as they are, I bet some are memorable (I know of a few this year from my own chasing adventures).

Thus, what I'm asking is for a few examples of cap bust chases from anyone. Preferably, these would be cases in which no convection developed at all (not just in an area you didn't target) in spite of some sort of forcing (cold front, warm front, dryline, OFB etc). I figure there are some good dryline bust days out there. Also, examples from the last few years are more preferable than those from farther back.

Thanks!

 

[Dean Baron]

Not sure if this is what you're looking for or not:
June 18, 2009
June 5th, 2008 (eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, southeast SD, southwest MN)
June 6th, 2009
July 31, 2008

Just a few off the top of my head.

 

[afischer]

The whole "cap bust" issue is one I find interesting. Here are some rather epic (mainly summertime) cap busts from the last several years:

06/02/02 (nern NE)
07/14/03 (nwrn IA)
05/19/04 (swrn IA)
05/21/05 (ern NE)
07/23/05 (nern SD)
07/19/06 (nwrn IA)
07/29/06 (nern SD)
05/28/07 (nern ND)
06/25/07 (nern ND)
08/13/07 (nern SD)
06/18/09 (central IA)
07/14/09 (ern NE)

Hope that helps.

 

[Jeff Bartlett]

You just have to make me relive those painful experiences, don't you? Oh well. A couple off the top of my head that stung pretty bad were 6/7/07 in NC and Central OK. Another was 4/24/08 sitting in Anthony, KS under clear blue skies while a monster raged near Hill City and Hoxie. I remember the CAPE being insane on that second one, but the cap held. Then there's about 100 others, but those two left a giant red mark on my psyche.

 

[afischer]

You just have to make me relive those painful experiences, don't you? Oh well. A couple off the top of my head that stung pretty bad were 6/7/07 in NC and Central OK. Another was 4/24/08 sitting in Anthony, KS under clear blue skies while a monster raged near Hill City and Hoxie.

04/24/08 and 06/07/07 are two EXCELLENT central/southern Plains examples. What's interesting about those is, adjacent 00Z RAOBs indicated that capping had been entirely removed... such that other processes (larger scale subsidence in the former case... god knows what in the latter case) may have been more at play than a hefty cap above the boundary layer. Most of the summertime cases I listed, in contrast, had a rather stout cap.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Thanks guys. Sorry to dig up old, painful memories. I got a good list going now. Appreciated!

 

[Jeff Bartlett]

04/24/08 and 06/07/07 are two EXCELLENT central/southern Plains examples. What's interesting about those is, adjacent 00Z RAOBs indicated that capping had been entirely removed... such that other processes (larger scale subsidence in the former case... god knows what in the latter case) may have been more at play than a hefty cap above the boundary layer. Most of the summertime cases I listed, in contrast, had a rather stout cap.

Yeah, here is a depressing picture for a chaser from 6/7/07. Looking due south along the now eastward advancing dryline (moving from right to left in this photo) from just north of Stillwater and a "cold front" was now pushing south out of Kansas (just passing over me). Those are not clouds. This is the intersection of two fronts scouring out the gorgeous airmass we had to work and being silently pushed out in advance of the fronts over the city. Made me weep, just a little.

All I can come up with is a lack of convergence along the dryline during peak heating, then once it finally pushed across later that night, there wasn't enough instability to work with. Sad sight, no matter what the cause.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I agree that 6/7/07 is a very good bust case. A few storms tried to developed over and near Norman that afternoon, but none lasted long. FWIW, the atmosphere was uncapped in the area, per the 00z OUN sounding:

 

[D. Hayes]

Dean already mentioned 5 June 2008. I did post some photos of that day on here from Kansas if you need them.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Where was the bust on June 5th 2008? I chase in Iowa where there was plenty of convection.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Yeah, here is a depressing picture for a chaser from 6/7/07. Looking due south along the now eastward advancing dryline (moving from right to left in this photo) from just north of Stillwater and a "cold front" was now pushing south out of Kansas (just passing over me). Those are not clouds. This is the intersection of two fronts scouring out the gorgeous airmass we had to work and being silently pushed out in advance of the fronts over the city. Made me weep, just a little.

All I can come up with is a lack of convergence along the dryline during peak heating, then once it finally pushed across later that night, there wasn't enough instability to work with. Sad sight, no matter what the cause.

I remember that day. That was supposed to be the severe line from hell across a widespread area, but biffed in most places except for Wisconsin. I seem to recall, at least, in Iowa, that storms went up too early due to the lack of a cap holding things down, so not much instability built up before things went, thus keeping the severity of the event down.

 

[Lanny Dean]

Dean already mentioned 5 June 2008. I did post some photos of that day on here from Kansas if you need them.

6-5-08 was not at all a cap bust. I had a full chase tour and targeted just west of ICT. Storms did go up, in fact, they went up very early due to the unexpected? timming of the shortwave. Later that afternoon we also intercepted the tornado warned cell near Kingman and filmed a brief albeit small tornado.

I am unsure how/who gave the date up to a cap bust but I can assure you it was not.
What that day was, IMO, was another a "high risk bust day"
That is, when the boys in Norman issue a high risk and what constitutes a high risk does not exactly pan out. (Not to be confused with a Cap Bust) or even a bust day.
Just my opinion for what its worth.

 

[D. Hayes]

I didn't say it was a bust day just photos from Kansas on that day to perhaps to help his research. But yea it's didn't go as hoped/expected as many on this forum thought was going to be a outbreak.

 

[Chad Cowan]

6-5-08 was not at all a cap bust. I had a full chase tour and targeted just west of ICT. Storms did go up, in fact, they went up very early due to the unexpected? timming of the shortwave. Later that afternoon we also intercepted the tornado warned cell near Kingman and filmed a brief albeit small tornado.

I am unsure how/who gave the date up to a cap bust but I can assure you it was not.
What that day was, IMO, was another a "high risk bust day"
That is, when the boys in Norman issue a high risk and what constitutes a high risk does not exactly pan out. (Not to be confused with a Cap Bust) or even a bust day.
Just my opinion for what its worth.

I would argue that 6/5/08 was in fact a cap bust, just not the type that we're used to. Instead of there being too much of a cap there was way too little. This resulted in storms going up early before the low-levels could marinate enough and also caused many updrafts to form in close proximity to each other.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Not that i want this to become an argument about this day, but I guess what Chad says indicates that we should precisely define "cap bust" lol