Long Range Weather Pattern

[HAltschule]

I just thought I would peruse the long range GFS since March and April were off to such a busy start severe weather wise, and I noticed that the Plains and Midwest are going to be primed for Severe weather episodes every day or every 2 to 3 days for the next 2 weeks or more. One trof after another digs from the Rockies and the moisture return from the Gulf seems plentiful with a Bermuda-High Type Ridge persisting.

Since my wife has banned me from leaving town this year because our first baby is due in 3 weeks, I will not be able to chase this spring So, once you guys get the ridge of death out there in June, please send some severe weather to New York State so I can enjoy it in my backyard also. In the meantime, looks like an early season of chasing and lots of fun. Enjoy.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Sounds good to me. I'd REALLY like to get some chasing under my belt and so far have been hindered either by distance (today, would have gone if the area of greatest concern still extended to the IL/WI border) or timing (the coming week's system, my prospective chase partner is booked on Wednesday and I am booked on Thursday [class in the mid-afternoon]).

 

[Jason Persoff]

Trust me when I say being a parent is storm chasing with less sleep ...

It's funny how relieved I was with both of our kids that they had August birthdays.

Enjoy parenthood: it lasts such a short time and it's wonderful. Storms will always be there...except last year...but then, that's the way it goes.

Grats!

 

[HAltschule]

Trust me when I say being a parent is storm chasing with less sleep ...

It's funny how relieved I was with both of our kids that they had August birthdays.

Enjoy parenthood: it lasts such a short time and it's wonderful. Storms will always be there...except last year...but then, that's the way it goes.

Grats!
[/b]

Thanks Jason. I am very excited. My wife is a school teacher so she has about 4 months off including the late spring and summer. So, I'll hopefully be able to get some chasing in LOCALLY given the active weather pattern so early in the season.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Yeah, it looks nice 'n' juicy at least through the end of April... hopefully it will remain that way into June, when I will be out of school and actually able to chase! Also hoping we get a decent tornado outbreak here in the western High Plains(northeast CO/NE Panhandle and southwest NE/northwest KS) in May or June. We haven't had a good one since 2000, and I would like to not have to drive hundreds and hundreds of miles to see a decent tornado! Nothing like a little backyard tornado chasing...
Anyhoo, it looks like it could be pretty nasty the next few weeks. I'd imagine we're going to be kept on our toes the next 12 to 16 days at least, probably longer than that. From the outbreaks we've experienced thus far and the pattern which suggests we may see a lot more like them through at least the end of this month, Mother Nature may be trying to overcompensate this season to make up for last year's lackluster one... Unfortunately, a high price has been paid with all the fatalities we've had thus far. My thoughts and prayers go out to those who lost their homes, their buisnesses, their lives or their loved ones in both March 12's and last night's tornadoes. If this trend continues, it may be a very, very long and taxing season for communities in the Great Plains and the Midwest.

 

[Marc Austin]

This season is turning out to mirror the 2003 storm chase season. Lot's of outbreaks in the midwest, although none quite as big so far as the outbreaks during 2003. My concern is, since we have had a warmer winter pattern this year, the storm season is getting an early start in the southern plains and the midwest and by May the storms will have already migrated further north. I know there's nothing exact to this theory, and I'll probably turn out being wrong, but it seems like spring has come early, and I'm afraid summer-like chasing conditions may also come early this year. By the way, is there an official count of fatalities from yesterday 4/2/06? I've heard a lot of numbers thrown around, but none seem to be official. My prayers go to all who experienced devestation yesterday... and it seems like there was a lot of it. Especially after dark.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

i hope this proves to be true. Not trying to make a forecast thread hear or anything but the next week to week and a half dont look too promising unfortunately. Models have cold front coming through over the weekend, hanging up, then slamming all the way to the Gulf unlike weve seen in the last month so that will keep the Gulf locked up and Canada unlocked for at least the first part of the month. But I agree with you that were way ahead of previous seasons. Im really holding out for May.

 

[bill mudd]

its always interesting to talk about trends - especially when you have to plan ahead and come in from out of state

the daily costs of chasing run me about $125 a day with rental car, motel, ect

so having a thread like this IS a huge help.....and until things heat up we are in somewhat of a hold pattern as chasing a 50mph rope in Iowa aint gonna cut it for me....

I will probably make my way into the panhandles in 2 weeks if the outlook improves :blink: