Long range model speculation - European style

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Since there is a number of posters from Europe also, I thought we could have long range model thread for European side of the world as well. To start off: GFS has been teasing me for at least 4 runs about possibility of instability over Estonia/Baltic sea region on May 9th. With the 12Z run, however the much of activity has shifted Southeast. Extreme southeastern counties may still have Convective Available Potential Energy around 1000 J/kg. Quite an amount of moisture as well, as dew points could hit +16 degrees Celsius, or about 61 degrees Fahrenheit. I know, it is still 7 days out, and likely the forecast will still change thousand and one times, but I thought there was something interesting to share. 06Z run was an Armaggedon in my books:


Here is a link for European GFS maps: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html