Margie Kieper
EF1
JTWC intensity analysis yielded T3.0, but AFWA was T3.5 and SAB, which was an hour earlier, T4.0, with the comment, "POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERED EYE AS SEEN ON IR AND ON 1753Z AMSRE PASS BUT CONSTRAINTS ONLY ALLOW 10 TENTHS WHITE BANDING CLASSIFICATION FOR A DT=4.0 WHICH WILL AGREE WITH MET AND PT." BOM forecast also at this timeframe indicated only a small amount of strengthening followed by weakening prior to landfall.
Just after the 20Z-21Z estimates, a small eye became visible on IR and WV imagery, centered in a symmetrical CDO. Looking more like 65 kt rather than the labeled 50 kt, but earlier Quikscat showed zippo, so maybe the winds will be playing catch-up. Microwave imagery from the same timeframe showed a well-defined eye in the LLCC but only spotty convection surrounding it.
BOM update now online...changed to "Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara" and sustained (10-min) winds noted as 65 kt. First vis is notable:
Late night update -- convection has banded around the center (see IR below) which probably means an increase in intensity, but the last six hours (0000Z to 0600Z) appearance on vis satellite imagery has indicated a steady state.
The 0530Z vis is impressive, and the small size of the storm is also striking:
Just after the 20Z-21Z estimates, a small eye became visible on IR and WV imagery, centered in a symmetrical CDO. Looking more like 65 kt rather than the labeled 50 kt, but earlier Quikscat showed zippo, so maybe the winds will be playing catch-up. Microwave imagery from the same timeframe showed a well-defined eye in the LLCC but only spotty convection surrounding it.
![20070325.2130.gms6.x.wv1km.20SKARA.50kts-987mb-170S-1156E.100pc.jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrlmry.navy.mil%2Fhtdocs_dyn%2Ftc_pages%2Fthumbs%2FSHEM%2F20S.KARA%2Fgeo%2Fvapor%2F1km%2F20070325.2130.gms6.x.wv1km.20SKARA.50kts-987mb-170S-1156E.100pc.jpg&hash=7a09151f22afe29dcde736855a7f0a71)
BOM update now online...changed to "Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara" and sustained (10-min) winds noted as 65 kt. First vis is notable:
![20070326.0003.gms6.x.vis1km_high.20SKARA.50kts-987mb-170S-1156E.100pc.jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrlmry.navy.mil%2Fhtdocs_dyn%2Ftc_pages%2Fthumbs%2FSHEM%2F20S.KARA%2Fvis%2Fgeo%2Fvis%2Fgeo%2F1km_zoom%2F20070326.0003.gms6.x.vis1km_high.20SKARA.50kts-987mb-170S-1156E.100pc.jpg&hash=f67ad10703cf2c5f17e53f7c641c1514)
Late night update -- convection has banded around the center (see IR below) which probably means an increase in intensity, but the last six hours (0000Z to 0600Z) appearance on vis satellite imagery has indicated a steady state.
![20070326.0530.gms6.x.ir1km.20SKARA.65kts-976mb-175S-1153E.100pc.jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrlmry.navy.mil%2Fhtdocs_dyn%2Ftc_pages%2Fthumbs%2FSHEM%2F20S.KARA%2Fgeo%2Fir%2F1km%2F20070326.0530.gms6.x.ir1km.20SKARA.65kts-976mb-175S-1153E.100pc.jpg&hash=ec58ca2facb67386dffbab3608ed191f)
The 0530Z vis is impressive, and the small size of the storm is also striking:
![20070326.0530.gms6.x.vis1km_high.20SKARA.65kts-976mb-175S-1153E.100pc.jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrlmry.navy.mil%2Fhtdocs_dyn%2Ftc_pages%2Fthumbs%2FSHEM%2F20S.KARA%2Fvis%2Fgeo%2Fvis%2Fgeo%2F1km_zoom%2F20070326.0530.gms6.x.vis1km_high.20SKARA.65kts-976mb-175S-1153E.100pc.jpg&hash=f1722379ef8db045ce862920e58b4ce0)
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