January 8-11, 2008 Major/extreme winter storm?

[Nate Gillson]

Not often you see an AFD mention days 8-14. This was from the DVN AFD from this afternoon.

DAYS 8-14...ALL LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES INDICATE SEASONALLY STRONG TO VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT REGION CIRCA JAN 8-11 WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SNOW OR MIXTURE OF SNOW/ICE AMD RAIN. SIGNALS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR PAST 72 HOURS. LOCAL ENERGY BUDGET TECHNIQUES SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER 5 DAYS TO CLARIFY HOW MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IMPACTED AND HOW IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPS...WINDS. ..NICHOLS..

 

[Joel Wright]

As much as I appreciate their enthusiasm, the DVN NWS seems to be a little too "hyped" on events way in the future, and sometimes in the short-term. At this stage in the game, it's awful early to make such a bold statement in my humble opinion.

This time of year, with the ever changing snowpack, and the huge impact that can have on a storm system, it'd be almost crazy to make a statement like that at this point.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

In case you guys havent seen my thread in the wx and chasing. I have been looking at this system too.. Models take this system up through MN, with positive CAPE and 50 degree DP's across IA/IL. Just started looking at this at 18-00z runs.. Will be interesting in the next few days..

I must give DVN some credit though.. As often as they use that wording, usually an event of some magnitude occurs around the time frame, and nearby the area...

 

[Joel Wright]

Wow, it's sure looking like we're all in for a nice January thaw during the Jan 6th-8th period. Much of the middle part of the country should see their snow melt away before the deep upper trough moves in with some storminess. 70s possible as far north as Oklahoma and Arkansas. Maybe some 50s as far north as southern MN and southern WI. The warm nights will really take a toll on the snowpack in the midwest.

Depending on how strong the shortwaves are rounding that trough will be very important to where the surface low(s) develop and track. With that much warm and moist air out ahead of the trough, I can see why some of the WFOs are getting excited. The gulf will have been "open" for possibly several days before the trough moves out.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

The models are looking pretty insane!!! The GFs is indicating up to 4 inches of precip in my area on Wednesday January 9!! I'm not sure if that is snow of rain either way that's very significant. Also a small area in Eastern Oklahoma looks prime for a classic cold core outbreak in a very small area that is indicating SBCAPE to 1500j/kg, tds to 60F, and very strong winds aloft as well as cool temps in the -12 to -16 at 500mb all bullseyed tucked in close to the low. If that's the case we may have a chase on our hands!!!! But it will probably crap out sooner or later before it gets here so I'm just wishcasting.

 

[Angie Norris]

Yep, keeping an eye on the warm sector part. We'll have the warmth, moisture, and shear in place and a CAPE of ~1500J/kg will be more than adequate for some January action but with well over a week to go, it's all wishcasting.
I can get a stomach virus early next week if needed

 

[JIM SELLARS]

I really think that the models are "SICK":confused:....The 9th looks like a Blizzard/Severe day some where in the midwest if they are right...The long term GFS has been pretty good at capturing the long range trends so far this winter...STAY TUNED!!!....

 

[rdale]

The GFS has sucked as of late - note the thread on the major/extreme (what's the diff :> ) east coast storm that was supposed to hit Christmas. It has 10-20" for southern Michigan on New Years Day too...

 

[JIM SELLARS]

The GFS has sucked as of late - note the thread on the major/extreme (what's the diff :> ) east coast storm that was supposed to hit Christmas. It has 10-20" for southern Michigan on New Years Day too...

Rob...When you get your 20" snow tomorrow in Lansing let us know....Cheers

 

[rdale]

We've never had a 20" snow in Lansing on record, so it may be a few yet :> GFS & NAM both insist on > 20" though...

 

[rdale]

Ended up with 5", and 00Z GFS last night still insisted on 20 inches... Even the 6Z run said 13" falling this morning, and in that timeframe we had 3"!

 

[Melissa Moon]

Report from Asheville...we ended up getting about 2 inches of snow overnight. Snow started here about 10 pm or so (03Z) and it was still snowing lightly when I headed to work this morning around 8 AM (13Z). my coworker, who lives on a slope facing the NW about 10 miles north of town got 4 inches at his house. Temps are forecasted not to get above freezing today, and we still have a chance of snow showers today and tonight, though I think the majority of snow that we're going to get has already fallen.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

The gfs is getting to be highly annoying with this system. Decent storm with a decent sfc low to a crap storm and a 1004mb sfc low...then back...then back to the other...then back to the previous look....then back again. What's it going to be GFS!?!? NAM starting to join in on that fun too. 0z NAM trended down with things, but not as far as the 0z GFS. Won't be shocked if the morning run goes right back to a better storm again. NAM is on the verge of a monster storm I guess. Just needs to slow some and tilt some.

 

[Joel Wright]

Hmm. Kind of looks like the trend is heading in the direction of sending a weak surface low out across IA monday, with maybe a stronger low forming Tuesday down south over AR or western KY. Then rapidly strengthen as it heads towards MI or OH. If that happens a band of heavy snow could develop over IL or IN and push north/northeast. Just kind of speculation, but it seems like it may be trending in that direction. Models could very likely be downplaying the amount of cold air available on the cold side of the storm should the storm rapidly intensify.

That is fairly typical this time of year. Longer range models develop one big storm, and then as you get closer the first one is just a weaker one induced by the lead shortwave, and then the more dominant storm evolves as the whole longwave kicks out.

I guess we'll see.

 

[Joel Wright]

Well, still looking like a secondary/stronger surface low will develop and move northeast into MI by early wednesday. This may end up laying a band of heavy snow somewhere left of it's track. I still think the models may be underdoing the amount of cold air available for this second low. Right now it looks like Iowa into Wisconsin may have the best shot at this band of snow, heavy or not. Subsequent runs will further pin down this potential better I guess.