It's time to do away with severe thunderstorm warnings

[Tyler Burg]

Funny this thread is now 3 pages long and it's still in the Winter weather section LOL.

 

[Dan Robinson]

By the way I appreciate and welcome the criticism here. By that, I mean I do not take any of it personally. Most of it is helpful in refining the case and making it even stronger. My goal is to attempt to make a difference. If we can do something to make that 500 deaths/year lower- even if it's just 10 or 20 a year - that would make me that happiest guy on earth.

 

[Brian Mette]

That's definitely a noble goal, and finding new ways to save lives is always a great thing. I just happen to think that if there was some sort of 'icy roads' warning, that the only people who would really take note and respond would be the people who slow down and drive more cautiously anyway. The people who disregard the conditions and drive like maniacs anyway are still doing to get into accidents.

I guess what I'm getting at is lack of education is not the problem. People know how dangerous icy roads are. The problem is either overconfidence, or just carelessness. Believe me, I see it all the time during the winter. It'll be snowing buckets, the roads will be horrible, and yet people will still go flying by me at break neck speeds.

 

[mikegeukes]

What about gravel roads, I been on gravel roads that been icy, while
the paved roads are ice free. You can go from clear paved roads,
where the sun been out to icy roads where it is wooded. You can
have icing at night from the sun melting the snow and snow banks.

I been out in the country, where paved roads, that been plowed
will look like two tracks at times, clear at times, then ice, and
and two tracks where its down to the payment, with ice.

How would you warn for that, when the weather conditions are clear skies.
Except for common sense, drive slow and careful.

Intersections can be icy, bridges, standing water that freezes, etc, etc.

Some county road commissions take better care of their roads
than other counties. Same thing for cities, and state highway
departments. So you can have icy roads from this also.

Quite a few State DOT's uses RWIS, Road Weather Information System
and some private weather companies forecast for road conditions.
One company that comes to mind is Meridian Environmental Technology.

How many injuries do people sustain in falling in parking lots,
sidewalks, driveways, etc. You can have the sun melt the snow of
a roof, parking lot, sidewalk, etc and it freezes, you can slip on
that if not treated. I have fallen a few times from this.
How would you warn people for that, except for common sense.

Since most people get their weather from the media, the tv mets
should mention about icy conditions.

Bottom line, its winter time, expect icy conditions.

Mike
http://supercellweather.blogspot.com

 

[John Robinson]

I'll throw this item out for discussion: It would help if the term "black ice" were abolished. Ever see black ice on a concrete interstate (where a lot of the higher-speed motorists run into trouble on the ice)? Is it really black on that white concrete? Why do we use a term that does nothing but confuse the subject in areas where ice is relatively uncommon anyway?

I'll also tackle the item in the other thread regarding media coverage of tornado deaths vs. ice-related driving deaths. It's the tornado itself that takes the lives. There's a feeling of helplessness, though we all know that some precautions can be taken. The loss of life is directly attributable to the weather phenomenon. On the other hand with the ice, it's not the ice itself that took the life. The person driving the car was responsible, i.e., even if you are going 25 mph in a 70 mph zone and you crash into another car on the ice, the state trooper will still hand you a ticket that says "too fast for conditions." This situation was, in many respects, within your control, whether you chose to do anything about it or not. Thus, the loss of life is indirectly attributable to the weather and directly attributable to a lack of caution on the motorist's part.

There are probably more "Bridge May Ice in Cold Weather" and "Bridge Freezes Before Roadway" signs on the highway than any other type of sign. How many times do you see that message repeated over and over as you drive along? Is this repetitive safety rule (or public education effort, if you prefer) effective?

 

[Mike Smith]

Snow, freezing rain, freezing drizzle and freezing fog are the weather. No other agency is equipped with the tools to forecast for these hazards.

The point is not to know what the road conditions are. The point is to know when the ingredients for icing are in place and to issue warnings when they are imminent or occuring.

They are called "freezing rain warnings" and "ice storm warnings." What am I missing here?

There is also a misunderstanding about the other hazards. The reason the tornado /severe thunderstorm death tolls are so low is because we have a highly effective warning system. We are at, what, 20 tornado deaths in 2009?! Amazing, even if it has been a below normal year for tornadoes.

My gosh, in 1953 alone, there were three separate tornadoes, from Texas to Massachusetts, that killed more than 90 people!

I think we meteorologists do not comprehend how successful the convective storm warning program is.

However, after reading this entire thread, I don't know what we would do differently for icy roads.

 

[Chris Nuttall]

Note that with the latest revision to NWS directives that simplified the types and number of WSW products, there is a provision that states:

...for high impact events which do not meet local warning criteria. For example, a Winter Storm Warning is forecasted but accumulations are not going to be met, but will be close. If it is early in the season or during a critical time of day such as rush hour when the impact will likely be greater, then a Winter Storm Warning might be warranted. The forecaster has the discretion and should not be held back from issuing what best mitigates the impending winter hazard even if criteria may not be met in the strictest sense.

In the case of this proposed "Road Icing Warning," the primary problem is jurisdictional, not an unwillingness to provide a product or service. Many of the factors associated with a "Road Ice Warning," such as road surface temperatures, are very specialized data sets that the NWS does not forecast. Official NWS policy is to refer DOTs to private sector companies because of the highly specialized nature of those forecasts.

For those interested, I recommend viewing IC3 from the WDTB's AWOC Winter Winter Track. This section specifically discusses road weather and the NWS's role.

 

[Dan Robinson]

There's a feeling of helplessness, though we all know that some precautions can be taken. The loss of life is directly attributable to the weather phenomenon. On the other hand with the ice, it's not the ice itself that took the life. The person driving the car was responsible, i.e., even if you are going 25 mph in a 70 mph zone and you crash into another car on the ice, the state trooper will still hand you a ticket that says "too fast for conditions." This situation was, in many respects, within your control, whether you chose to do anything about it or not. Thus, the loss of life is indirectly attributable to the weather and directly attributable to a lack of caution on the motorist's part.

I see your point, but disagree. The icing is in fact the direct and sole cause of many of the accidents. The ice physically separates the tires from the road, causing loss of control without any abnormal behavior or carelessness on the part of the driver being neccessary. That, coupled with the fact that icing from freezing precip is visually undetectable at worst and very subtle at best, takes many drivers by surprise before they have a chance to adjust their speed. I've seen this happen in person. The end result is no different than if a tornado had blown the car off the road - both are weather phenomena that directly exhibited external forces on the vehicle. One the driver is on the ice, they are helpless and not in control of the situation.

There are probably more "Bridge May Ice in Cold Weather" and "Bridge Freezes Before Roadway" signs on the highway than any other type of sign. How many times do you see that message repeated over and over as you drive along? Is this repetitive safety rule (or public education effort, if you prefer) effective?

The difference here being that these signs are there year-round, adding an 'extreme' element to the repetitive rule. They are visible whether the hazard is present or not. I know some states have their bridge ice signs manually folded down during the warm season (Oklahoma for example does, the signs switch to 'Keep our land grand'). That is a slight improvement, but the signs still don't alert drivers to when the hazard is actually present during the cool season.

 

[Dan Robinson]

They are called "freezing rain warnings" and "ice storm warnings." What am I missing here?

We have Freezing Rain Advisories and Ice Storm Warnings presently, both of which require certain forecast accretion criteria to be met. Road icing commonly occurs at levels below these criteria where these products don't get issued.

There is also a misunderstanding about the other hazards. The reason the tornado /severe thunderstorm death tolls are so low is because we have a highly effective warning system. We are at, what, 20 tornado deaths in 2009?! Amazing, even if it has been a below normal year for tornadoes.

Correct - but look at the level of intensity and strong wording that goes into those warnings. TV stations break into programming, sirens sound, etc. Right now, road icing gets a light-hearted mention on the AM newscast with a chuckle to "take it slow out there, ha ha!" With a tornado warning, you hear "this is a life threatening situation - take action immediately". Road icing should be getting the "stay home or slow down - this is life threatening" treatment. I have never heard any NWS Freezing Rain advisory or TV broadcast allude to the high death/injury potential with icing.

There are certain scenarios with road icing that I think the tones SHOULD go off! Not sirens obviously, but tones and TV/radio cut-ins to alert drivers/pending drivers of the hazard. This morning in Kentucky would have been such an appropriate situation.

My gosh, in 1953 alone, there were three separate tornadoes, from Texas to Massachusetts, that killed more than 90 people!

And we are at over 500 deaths per year from road icing now. That's not too far off from what tornado tolls used to be. If the warning system worked so well for tornadoes, why would be expect it to be totally ineffective for road icing?

 

[Jim Saueressig]

I think this picture says it all. Do you really need a warning or a road sign to tell you it is going to be icy and dangerous to drive this road today?

I think there are too many T-storm warnings but to have to add more winter weather warnings and more signs to tell you that this road is dangerous? Do you really need anything more than to know there is a chance for snow coming? When you get out on the road and see this then all of that should be pretty obvious.

I understand you don't like the death toll related to winter weather but maybe it's the natural consequences that come with using no common sense.... Yes they will often take others with them that were innocent of their stupidity but if they aren't using a lick of common sense when entering this roadway do you really think they will heed yet more warning signs any better?

 

[Dan Robinson]

Many of the factors associated with a "Road Ice Warning," such as road surface temperatures, are very specialized data sets that the NWS does not forecast.

I agree that pavement surface and subsurface temp data is helpful. However, the behavior is fairly predictable based on surrounding obs. Bridges cool to the observed temps fairly quickly, so if surrounding obs are sub-32F and precip is imminent and occuring, icing is likely on the bridges.

Solid ground is similar but slightly trickier - if sub-32F temps have been present for more than 6-8 hours or more, all-road icing is likely.

Many state DOHs maintain 'mesonets' of road sensor data - along with traffic cameras, that could easily be made available to the NWS for simple verification of road surface temps and icing conditions.

The DOHs are certainly party to the issue, but there isn't a reason that both agencies could coordinate their resources to mitigate. Just like cooperative observers, spotters and chasers currently do.

 

[Mike Potter]

I'll throw this item out for discussion: It would help if the term "black ice" were abolished. Ever see black ice on a concrete interstate (where a lot of the higher-speed motorists run into trouble on the ice)? Is it really black on that white concrete? Why do we use a term that does nothing but confuse the subject in areas where ice is relatively uncommon anyway?

The term "Black Ice" comes from asphalt highways and concrete does look black at times when there is a sheet of ice over the top of it...

 

[Dan Robinson]

I think this picture says it all. Do you really need a warning or a road sign to tell you it is going to be icy and dangerous to drive this road today?

I think there are too many T-storm warnings but to have to add more winter weather warnings and more signs to tell you that this road is dangerous? Do you really need anything more than to know there is a chance for snow coming? When you get out on the road and see this then all of that should be pretty obvious.

I understand you don't like the death toll related to winter weather but maybe it's the natural consequences that come with using no common sense.... Yes they will often take others with them that were innocent of their stupidity but if they aren't using a lick of common sense when entering this roadway do you really think they will heed yet more warning signs any better?

That photo is not a good representation of the typical high-death toll icing event. Snowstorms have very low road ice fatality rates due to the hazard being very obvious. It is the more subtle events that pose the greatest threat.

 

[Dan Robinson]

It would help if the term "black ice" were abolished. Ever see black ice on a concrete interstate (where a lot of the higher-speed motorists run into trouble on the ice)? Is it really black on that white concrete?

I agree with this. Here is what you could call 'gray ice' - same phenomenon, just matching the road surface color (the car is losing control and spinning out at 70mph):

 

[Jason Boggs]

Again, common sense plays a major role in winter weather safety. Tornado sirens and strong wording come into play because you don't have to leave your home to be impacted by the event. Most winter weather situations (icy roads) come into play when you're obviously out on the road and not at home.

I think when roads are icy and snow packed, signs that say so are a waste of time and money. If those signs really do help motorists, those motorists should not be allowed to drive.

EDIT: Dan, I really commend what you're doing here. I hope lives can somehow be saved from winter weather.