Irene

[Justin Wiley]

That article is from a tornado on a Tuesday (FTA: "More than 11,000 Conectiv customers were without power late Tuesday" and "She cut short her trip and expected to return to Delaware Wednesday"), so it's not from a tornado earlier today.

The latest IR imagery shows the center of circulation as a swirl of low clouds, with cold cloud tops (which are no longer even very cold/high) to the N of the center. So, the satellite appearance doesn't very good in terms of a purely-tropical hurricane.

I noticed the large gaping holes in the satellite imagery as well. Do you or anyone else know of hurricanes with 80mph winds with centers as poorly constructed as this one? I know it was mentioned that these winds were located in the ball of convection just northeast of the center, but after watching observation sites all day long all over the center during landfall, I found nothing close to 80 mph sustained winds. In fact, I would venture to say the highest I found were in the 50-55 range, with higher gusts of course. I saw someone provide a list of reports with sustained winds over 80 by "trained weather spotters", but nothing from any actual NWS observation site.

That's an interesting find Dave. The extra-tropical wording from the SPC seems to make sense.

I'm just wondering if the NHC wants to hang onto the hurricane classification to help justify the panic that was laid out by certain media outlets calling for the "worst hurricane of our lifetimes" predictions. I'm halfway serious, of course, as the NHC wouldn't do such a thing, but man, it's just really hard finding realtime hurricane-force wind observations.

 

[MClarkson]

Nice reports, Truman. Thanks.

The winds at landfall didnt strike me as particularly unusual, I think its pretty rare to find cat 1 winds onshore from a cat 1 hurricane. Now of course all the wind onshore are fairly tame, with the only nearby land solidly on the weak side. Deep convection is tailing off over the colder water, and the southerly shear has the south side completely exposed. I am surprised the media is ignoring the fact that NYC is gonna get weak sided.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Recon is finding some higher winds that would typically support a low Cat 1 hurricane in the eastern hemisphere of Irene. However, as has been noted in recon obs and NHC discussions, the flight level-to-surface reduction has been anomalously low in Irene, so I'm not sure there are any larger areas of hurricane-force winds any more.

It's pretty common for those "maximum winds to so-and-so mph" to only occupy a small area of the tropical cyclone, typically in the right hemisphere along the inner eyewall (if it has an eyewall). Unfortunately, these areas typically aren't sampled well by land-based observing networks (ASOS, AWOS, etc.). As such, it's tough to say what the wind speeds were in the "favorable" locations as sampled by recon. I saw a post on Facebook from a chaser who reported 85 mph sustained winds in extreme eastern NC, so take it for what it's worth.

Having watched hurricanes make landfall for 10+ years, I don't recall too many storms/times when the "maximum winds" as implied by recon data or other sources used by the NHC were actually observed by existing fixed land observing systems. In general, the observing network is just too sparse to properly sample some of the very strong gradients in winds that can exist in hurricanes. The more "mobile" / temporary observing system like the Texas Tech StickNets (or other groups that setup observing sites) can be placed in the most favorable regions to see the highest winds largely because they aren't fixed to the earth years before landfall occurs.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

Interesting... Apparently there is some disagreement: the SPC thinks that the transition to extratropical is already underway, yet NHC makes no mention of this anywhere that I could find, insisting instead that this will happen "in 36-48 hours". You have to read the text of the current Tornado Watch 812 to find the following:

Certainly the satellite presentation looks pretty poor... There seems to be a lot of dry air getting entrained from inland areas, which is bad for the hurricane but will probably enhance the tornado threat. A nighttime tornado in NYC metro or anywhere along the CT shoreline could easily become a major disaster.

The storm is transitioning to extra-tropical and can see it in the radar velocity data. I'm on my phone and don't want to type the whole thing out using a touch screen. However I posted a blog on this topic earlier in the evening. You can read it here: http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2011/08/meteorological-detective-work-using-all-your-tools/

 

[B Ozanne]

Just lost power in Darien, CT. Hearing some explosions out there too right now (transformers).

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Looks like the show, such as it is, will be over in another couple hours at most. She's picking up speed and losing moisture on the backside - the southern quadrant is just some wind, and probably not all that much of it. I've had no problems with power so far here in New Haven, lights blinked once or twice, that's it. Just as well the thing fizzled here, since I have discovered a small amount of water coming in through the molding at the top of my bedroom window, not enough to do any damage - not so far - but I have to sit here and monitor it, empty the pail I have precariously balanced/taped against the window if it gets even partially full... I will not be going anywhere anytime soon, that's for sure. A real pain, I got maybe an hour of sleep, if that... And no possibility of any more until this thing's over, or at least until the heavy precip is gone. Goodnight Irene, already, I've seen more than enough! Never did like hurricanes, much.

 

[rdale]

Having watched hurricanes make landfall for 10+ years, I don't recall too many storms/times when the "maximum winds" as implied by recon data or other sources used by the NHC were actually observed by existing fixed land observing systems. In general, the observing network is just too sparse to properly sample some of the very strong gradients in winds that can exist in hurricanes.

I wonder if that's a problem which NHC needs to address? If the winds are that isolated that even in this day and edge they miss all the reporting sites - maybe the numbers they are giving out should be reduced? 85mph is all people remember (well, other than the 100mph forecast from the day before) but if nobody actually gets that wind on shore, all it does it make people believe the NHC screwed up.

 

[Mike Smith]

I think part of the problem is that, throughout Irene's life, the winds aloft have been much stronger than usual when compared to surface winds. If any convection develops, and the HRR yesterday evening showed it developing in the NYC area, those winds would be brought to the surface. We have been in a darned if you don't, darned if you do situation.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

I think part of the problem is that, throughout Irene's life, the winds aloft have been much stronger than usual when compared to surface winds. If any convection develops, and the HRR yesterday evening showed it developing in the NYC area, those winds would be brought to the surface. We have been in a darned if you don't, darned if you do situation.

Yeah, I think you probably do need the convection to get anything approaching real hurricane strength winds over much of the area. I just spoke with a friend of mine in Guilford (it's on the CT coast about 15 miles east of New Haven, where I am) and he said the strongest winds by far that he's experienced so far occurred back around 5:00 am, which was approximately when the last major convective band went through. We seem to be getting a few strong gusts right now here in New Haven, but nothing sustained, and I'd estimate it's well below hurricane speed even at the peak of the gusting.

 

[rdale]

If any convection develops, and the HRR yesterday evening showed it developing in the NYC area, those winds would be brought to the surface. We have been in a darned if you don't, darned if you do situation.

Couldn't that be handled with SVRs / TORs / EWWs as needed?

 

[MClarkson]

"but if nobody actually gets that wind on shore, all it does it make people believe the NHC screwed up."

Maybe a reminder that hurricanes are maritime storms... if you are a boat or right on the beach then you get the highest winds. Bump down the onshore winds a bit... in the end if that takes a handful of more lives, is it worth it by not crying wolf to 60 million people and thus possibly costing more lives in the future when a strong storm actually does show up?

 

[Dave Kaplow]

OK, I take back what I posted before. Quick report: New Haven has just experienced some gusts that must have been at least hurricane strength. I went outside briefly, there were large pieces of metal being blown about, 10 foot lengths of gutter, that kind of thing, I could hear metal being torn up and blown across the roofs above me... And, incredibly, the wind seems also to have forced open a hinged, very heavy square metal trapdoor set into the sidewalk across the street. I saw a cop pull up, shine his flashlight down there... Nobody home, it was the wind! I can't imagine anything less than a hurricane strength gust could have forced open that door, it's like a manhole cover! As I stated before, my street often acts like a wind tunnel, and I'm surrounded by tall buildings... Since there's no local convection apparent on radar, I have to blame urban architecture. These were gusts, mind you, there is almost no sustained wind at all. Very weird. If the whole area is experiencing wind gusts like this, there will be a heck of a lot more damage then I thought - but really I think this was a freak occurrence limited to my immediate vicinity.

 

[B Ozanne]

More damage than Gloria, worse coastal flooding than December 1992 storm. At least that is how it played out in Darien, CT.

Looks lIke we won't have power for several days.

 

[JoelHamburger]

Callery Pear tree in front of my building sheared off a large bough. Part of a cornice was blown and/or taken off by the tree. Besides a few downed trees in the neighborhood (North Park Slope, Brooklyn) not much to report. I think that last years microburst and tornado event culled most of the weaker trees.

I have no doubt that if Irene had arrived as a Cat 2 there would have been widespread flooding and much more damage. I suppose it's a good thing but the real danger is in people not taking the next storm seriously.

Very thankful my electricity is delivered beneath the street !

 

[John Olexa]

Lost power from 10:10PM till about 9:50 this morning. Mostly tree branches everywhere and a few downed trees.