Irene

[B Ozanne]

Current surge forecast for western Long Island Sound (where I live) and New York Harbor is 4-8' (NHC Hurricane warning details at 309pm). With a worst case scenario of 8-10'.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 FEET OF SURGE ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR...WITH 3 TO 5 FT OF SURGE ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY...PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TIDAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
AGGRAVATED BY ACCOMPANYING LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE
THREATENING WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE.

HIGH TIDE ACROSS NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LONG ISLAND IS AROUND 8 AM SUNDAY. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...
WATER LEVELS OF 8 TO 9 FT ABOVE MSL ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TIDE ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IS AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY.
IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...WATER LEVELS OF 10 TO 11 FT ABOVE MSL
ARE POSSIBLE.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Just looked at the 5:00 NHC update… Looks like we’ll be seeing at most high-end Tropical Storm conditions upon landfall here in CT, a far cry from the doomsday predictions we’ve seen emanating from certain media outlets. One thing I found interesting in the official discussion is this:

MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE
SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH
AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE STRUCTURES WILL EXPERIENCE
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE 30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE
ABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

This is of personal interest to me because I have to choose where to park my car overnight, and I was going to leave it right on the street outside my apartment building in downtown New Haven. My reasoning was, there are no trees on my street that could fall and hit the car - and I suspect some trees will fall in TS level winds given the already saturated ground - so I avoid that possibility by leaving it right outside. But I had also assumed that the winds would not be strong enough to topple streetlights or generate much debris falling from nearby buildings, some of which are indeed close to 30 stories... After reading the quote above I’m no longer sure I made the right choice. I can still move to a space in a more residential but tree-lined area of 2 and 3 storey homes… Which do you guys think would be safer? Probably not a whole lot to worry about either way, but my car is my livelihood and I don’t want to take any unnecessary chances.

 

[cstrunk]

Just looked at the 5:00 NHC update… Looks like we’ll be seeing at most high-end Tropical Storm conditions upon landfall here in CT, a far cry from the doomsday predictions we’ve seen emanating from certain media outlets. One thing I found interesting in the official discussion is this:

This is of personal interest to me because I have to choose where to park my car overnight, and I was going to leave it right on the street outside my apartment building in downtown New Haven. My reasoning was, there are no trees on my street that could fall and hit the car - and I suspect some trees will fall in TS level winds given the already saturated ground - so I avoid that possibility by leaving it right outside. But I had also assumed that the winds would not be strong enough to topple streetlights or generate much debris falling from nearby buildings, some of which are indeed close to 30 stories... After reading the quote above I’m no longer sure I made the right choice. I can still move to a space in a more residential but tree-lined area of 2 and 3 storey homes… Which do you guys think would be safer? Probably not a whole lot to worry about either way, but my car is my livelihood and I don’t want to take any unnecessary chances.

IMO... and it's hard to really judge without looking at the exact spot where the vehicle will be parked, you should be alright where you are. I would be more worried about tree limbs falling down.

 

[David Wolfson]

FWIW, I'd keep my car away from trees. You look to get many hours of heavy rain and whole gale-force winds which pull large branches off trees and weaken the roots, toppling them entire. Those sorts of winds shouldn't be enough to pull debris off decently constructed high-rises, IMO.

My early memories of Carol were of peeping out a large picture window -- never broken, thank goodness -- seeing a large chestnut tree pull up by the roots and fall across the street, and the whole top of a maple at my best friend's house loft away.

 

[B Ozanne]

Which do you guys think would be safer? Probably not a whole lot to worry about either way, but my car is my livelihood and I don’t want to take any unnecessary chances.

My wife's car went in the garage and mine is about two blocks down the road in the elementary school parking lot with about 50 other cars and a few boats. It is a wide open space with no trees around. On top of that I am sheltered between some SUVs.

We decided to stay in our own house since the winds are likely going to be out of the north which means we are safe from the only big tree that threatens our house.

 

[David Wolfson]

Right now she appears on radar to have a small tight eye just off the coast at the NC/VA border with a bit of an eastward wobble. Very interesting storm!

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Thanks for the replies, everyone. Yeah, I agree trees are the real enemy. The car should be okay where it is, barring any freak occurrences. It's true that in the past I've found my street sometimes acts as an urban wind tunnel, greatly amplifying the ambient winds, but enough to pick up and move a car? I seriously doubt that will happen. So I'll take my chances downtown for the overnight. Come morning, I'll probably drive down to the nearest accessible shore area anyway, just to see what there is to see. Landfall in CT appears to be still on track for around 11:00 am, so there will still be plenty of time to position myself. Tornadic threat appears pretty minimal, and completely unchaseable in any event, regardless of the SPC's current probability of 5%. A pure dumb-luck waterspout in the harbor at dawn is about the absolute best I can hope for, and I rate the chance of that at close to zero, with any bands containing discrete convective cells either nonexistent or well past the area by daybreak. But you never know, one can always hope for that special surprise. Unfortunately, flooding looks to be the main headline and headache from this storm. I just hope everyone in the area makes it through safe and dry.

 

[TrumanBoyer]

report #2

9pm I'm at southern tip of delmarva. Chesapeake bay bridge tunnel closed. But I bet the view would be great. Seeing winds gusting maybe 50-60kts. East but shifting a little to NE. Eye-like thing is coming close. Getting good cell on AT&T. Can't get to a beach power lines down. Now seeing power flashes from downed lines that I almost drove over. Thought they were dead. Very windy very rainy no lightning very dark. Found a good safe spot to squat with no cops. GOOD NIGHT IRENE. Sorry had to say it.

 

[Miriam Lawrence]

Do any of you guys know a good site for actual storm surge that is occurring or has occurred in a particular location? (I've been looking at the NHS surge probabilities but am looking for actuals. Just read in the NHS 9:00 p.m. update that surge at the Bay Bridge peaked at close to the (record) level set during Isabel in 2003. My in-laws have a house farther north, on the Eastern shore of Maryland, in a town that flooded badly during Isabel... if possible I'd like to find out what kind of surge that area ends up getting. Thanks!

 

[rdale]

This is getting passed around as Irene... http://www.twitpic.com/64v76e

Anyone have the original source? Obviously it's not a hurricane but it looks too good to be a Pensacola supercell either.

 

[Andy Jackson]

Looks like a strong tornado in Delaware:

2235 2 SW LEWES SUSSEX DE 3876 7518 AROUND 15 HOMES DAMAGED IN THE NASSAU STATION AND TRADEWINDS SUBDIVISIONS SW OF LEWES. ONE HOME DEMOLISHED.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Interesting... Apparently there is some disagreement: the SPC thinks that the transition to extratropical is already underway, yet NHC makes no mention of this anywhere that I could find, insisting instead that this will happen "in 36-48 hours". You have to read the text of the current Tornado Watch 812 to find the following:

DISCUSSION...HRCN IRENE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY NNEWD THROUGH EARLY SUN. SATELLITE AND THERMAL CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS NOW MOVED BACK OVER OPEN WATER...ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD EXPECTED TO REMAIN AMPLY STRONG TO SUPPORT LOW LVL ROTATION IN SEMI-DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING WITHIN AXIS OF WEAK SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ARCING NW FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK IN THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE SRN JERSEY SHORE AND OVER LWR DE BAY. THE THREAT SHOULD EDGE NWD INTO CNTRL NJ AND INTO THE NYC AREA/SRN LONG ISLAND LATER TNGT.

Certainly the satellite presentation looks pretty poor... There seems to be a lot of dry air getting entrained from inland areas, which is bad for the hurricane but will probably enhance the tornado threat. A nighttime tornado in NYC metro or anywhere along the CT shoreline could easily become a major disaster.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Looks like a strong tornado in Delaware:

Here's an article: (different area)

Delaware tornadoes

That article is from a tornado on a Tuesday (FTA: "More than 11,000 Conectiv customers were without power late Tuesday" and "She cut short her trip and expected to return to Delaware Wednesday"), so it's not from a tornado earlier today.

The latest IR imagery shows the center of circulation as a swirl of low clouds, with cold cloud tops (which are no longer even very cold/high) to the N of the center. So, the satellite appearance doesn't very good in terms of a purely-tropical hurricane.

 

[TrumanBoyer]

report #3

Same location. After a calm period I dozed off for about an hour. Woke by truck shaking hard and blast of rain in the face. Window had been down on lee side. Wind now forn NNW and gusting like before. Now less rain and FAST moving low clouds. I am obviously in or near the srn half of the storm. Wide awake from adrenaline. I am moving up to Delaware for tornado watch now.
-Truman

 

[Andy Jackson]

That article is from a tornado on a Tuesday (FTA: "More than 11,000 Conectiv customers were without power late Tuesday" and "She cut short her trip and expected to return to Delaware Wednesday"), so it's not from a tornado earlier today.

The latest IR imagery shows the center of circulation as a swirl of low clouds, with cold cloud tops (which are no longer even very cold/high) to the N of the center. So, the satellite appearance doesn't very good in terms of a purely-tropical hurricane.

Yeah, that got me thinking too. People need to date stuff. (I'm guilty for skimming the article as well).I will delete.