Invest 90L (Was Bahamas Disturbance)

OK, the more I look at this, the more I wonder if 90L is just a "red herring" that's distracting our attention from what could be the real developing story: this big cyclone that the models are developing around the Bahamas.

There's a lot of convection covering a broad swath from the W Atlantic down into the C Caribbean right now-- and it's been persisting for a couple of days.
 
This cloud cluster in the Bahamas is looking quite interesting this morning. It appears that a large anticyclone is taking shape over this system, although the gfs has backed off somewhat in this becoming a significant storm the model is still carrying it westward or WSW into the GOM late this weekend. I would expect to see some further development of this system today.
There is even a decent disturbance taking shape around 9N and around 41W that looks like a developing TD. The models shows a 200mb trough between 50 and 55W just north of 12N so the long term doesn't look too favorable. NRL should tag these two systems later today.
 
Good day,

This "thing" (90L) in the Gulf as of this morning is really looking like "crap".

This is a 500 MB upper low, accompanied by low pressure aloft (DVA / PVA) opposed to high pressure aloft, and is cold cored. A subtropical depression is your best bet there.

The disturbance east of the Bahamas is looking better, and once can make out a slight "twist" or "swirl" on the enhanced IR loop.

The only fly in the ointment is that 90L is producing a stronger upper-level wind flow east of it, and is inducing shear. If 90 L gets out of the way, an upper-level anticyclone SHOULD form over the east-of-the-Bahamas disturbance, and that can get going.

Nevertheless, whether it develops or not, it WILL affect FL with more torrential rains for the weekend.

I am ready to chase a hurricane, not have my weekend ruined again by 15-20 MPH winds and all-day grey rainy skies (need something more exciting thatn that).
 
Jim Leonard said:
This cloud cluster in the Bahamas is looking quite interesting this morning. It appears that a large anticyclone is taking shape over this system, although the gfs has backed off somewhat in this becoming a significant storm the model is still carrying it westward or WSW into the GOM late this weekend. I would expect to see some further development of this system today.
There is even a decent disturbance taking shape around 9N and around 41W that looks like a developing TD. The models shows a 200mb trough between 50 and 55W just north of 12N so the long term doesn't look too favorable. NRL should tag these two systems later today.
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Great summary-- you pegged all the important points! As per your prediction, the two disturbances are now Invests, and-- as you suggested-- the one in the S/C Atlantic (91L) looks like it'll be a fish. I was a bit disappointed with the latest GFS run this morning-- how it's less bullish Re: the Bahamas disturbance (92L).

P.S. I made a thread Re: 92L-- it seems we'll be talking about this one over the next few days!

P.P.S. Chris, I agree, 90L looks like crap. I wish it would just get the heck out of the way and let a real tropical system develop.
 
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