Increses in tornado strength up north with global warming?

[calvinkaskey]

It seems there have been a good number of f-2 tornadoes in New York state recently. Even without tornado watches there were at least 3 separate days where significant tornadoes occurred (ef-2 or greater) One hit near Albany area (officially ef-3, more likely ef-2), one in the finger lakes (officially ef-1, but cracked "foundation" and tore entire roof off in one section along with window out and thrashing the woods) and one near the Syracuse area at least ef-2 with several deaths. The year before there was another tornado near the Albany area (wide and fairly long lived although ef-1 officially) and another supercell that day with several funnel reports with some unreported funnels also. The one that I saw looked like it had Ef-2 winds with a possible fairly persistent subvorticy or at least large inflow cloud.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Climate models based on increased global temperatures suggest more heat and moisture in the Northern US which would seem to indicate there would be more/stronger tornados. However, the lack of any real warming over the last 15-18 years, depending on which data is used, would seem to indicate the tornados you bring up are likely just the result of the odds of probability.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Did you have a point with this thread? I see you listed some statistics, but the title of the thread indicates you are trying to either make an argument or ask a question regarding any correlation between tornado occurrence "up north" with global climate change. But I didn't see any actual question asked or hypothesis stated. So which is it?

However, the lack of any real warming over the last 15-18 years, depending on which data is used, would seem to indicate the tornados you bring up are likely just the result of the odds of probability.

The reduction of warming, measured by globally averaged surface temperatures, over the past 15 or so years is not an indication that the planet is not warming. Measurements of sub-sea-surface temperatures suggest the extra heat is being stored below the sea surface rather than in the lower atmosphere. I would agree with the second sentence that there's really no way to know for sure the cause of the tornado activity based on such a small sample. It's very difficult to make any but the most basic of statements regarding tornado activity and climate change based on only the past 60 or so years of "reliable" tornado data with any certainty. It's essentially impossible to make any statements of certainty based on just a few years of data and just a few samples.

 

[Rick Schmidt]

Why is this thread in the Target area??

 

[calvinkaskey]

Looking at the numbers over the last 30 years for both Pa and NY tornadoes the number in Pa have not dropped but the strength seems to have dropped off a lot, but in NY the number of significant (f-2 or greater) tornadoes have stayed the same while the number of them have been cut in half. I got the number by looking at the last ten years up to 2013 and the first 10 years starting from 1984 from the tornado project website table for all the years. One thing I get out of it is that when NY tornadoes are spotted the risk should be taken much more seriously.

Jeff I'm wondering about these numbers. Is the possible increase in strength in New York due simply to higher dewpoints and the decrease in Pennsylvania from lessening upper air dynamics?

 

[rdale]

There is no "simply" when discussing historic tornado trends...

 

[Jason_Dasho]

There is no "simply" when discussing historic tornado trends...

Well said


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[Todd Lemery]

This site isn't here to belittle people who are simply asking a question which they do not know the answer to. Feel free to keep your comments to yourself if you have no intention of being helpful.

 

[Jason_Dasho]

Please correct me if I'm wrong Rob, But I believe least my interpretation was was to point out that weather/climate patterns are complex and multiple variables.


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[calvinkaskey]

Am I wrong in thinking that the higher the dewpoints, generally the greater the chances of a tornado given similar atmospheric conditions?

 

[rdale]

Yes, that's too "simple"

 

[calvinkaskey]

Why is that too simple? Can't one factor outweight others? If we looked at dewpoint temperatures and tornadic formation wouldn't they go up to a certain point?

 

[Patrick Marsh]

Tornadogenesis is way more complicated than more moisture. I would argue that the probability of tornado given a thunderstorm is much higher in winter than in summer...and the atmospheric moisture content is lower in the winter.

 

[calvinkaskey]

In New York state or Pennsylvania?

 

[Patrick Marsh]

I am saying this for the entire United States.