Increase in hail size for warning criteria

[rdale]

3/4", I think is a good standard.
It is a good indicator that the cell can produce large
hail and has a good chance of producing
even larger hail.

Actually no... Most 3/4" hail reports are associated with just 3/4" hail storms.

If you get enough 3/4" hail you can start seeing some
crop damage.

And you can still get that info from the SPS which will be issued for 3/4" hail... But a question - what do farmers do to protect their crops when they find out a hailstorm is coming?

 

[Chris Allington]

But a question - what do farmers do to protect their crops when they find out a hailstorm is coming?

Duh... hail cannon.

 

[mikegeukes]

Many farmers have crop insurance.

 

[Lou Ruh]

When this topic came up on this board, I asked our local WCM (from the Mount Holly, NJ office) if anything was going to happen in the eastern region related to this. Initially, he said he hadn't heard anything. Out of the blue this week he told me that he had just heard that eastern region offices will very soon be changing the hail size warning criterion to 1" (and that there was no recent discussion of this among the WCMs ... eastern HQ decided to mandate this without much discussion) ... unless there are strong objections/complaints from emergency managers or the general public. So, this change may get adopted nationally pretty quickly.

 

[rdale]

Great news! USAF & some EM's fought this VERY hard back in the 90's, hopefully with NWSChat and other forms of getting out the 3/4" hail info -- they'll be satisfied and the public might have a little more faith in SVR's!

 

[Tim Shriver]

Actually no... Most 3/4" hail reports are associated with just 3/4" hail storms.



And you can still get that info from the SPS which will be issued for 3/4" hail... But a question - what do farmers do to protect their crops when they find out a hailstorm is coming?

When was the last time someone moved their house to
get out of the way of a tornado?

You will also find that insurance companies will ask if a warning was issued or
if a watch was in affect. This does affect insurance rates and claim payouts to farmers
from insurance companies.


As for the hail, I think we both could prove our points.

Tim

 

[Tim Shriver]

Many farmers have crop insurance.

Many folks have life insurance too...


Life and property, as the saying goes.

Tim

 

[rdale]

When was the last time someone moved their house to
get out of the way of a tornado?

Hmmm... Not sure I get the connection. Warnings are issued for the protection of life. If you can protect property, then so be it. But again - how will changing 1" criteria affect farmers?

Life and property, as the saying goes.

Actually -- no. You can't take property with you. Your life is more important than any physical object, so having insurance doesn't mean it's okay for people to die. The goal of warning is to save lives, and 3/4" hail doesn't kill.

 

[Jim Cross]

I have a question about lightning in severe thunderstorms. Has there been any studies on cloud to ground lightning related to hail size during thunderstorms. Alot of severe thunderstorm warnings now with the 3/4 inch hail criteria have wording containing this storm also contains deadly lightning with it. I know the NWS does not issue severe warnings for lightning alone for obvouis reasons but was just wondering if any studies have been done on lightning related to hail size.

 

[rdale]

Are you talking about the frequency of lightning? I'm not sure our hail database is good enough to correlate that, but I'd lay odds that there's no way to say "xx strikes per minute = 3/4in hail, yy strikes per minute = 1in" etc.

 

[Jim Cross]

I guess my point is why would you want to raise the hail criteria to 1" from 3/4" when you have deadly lightning occuring in alot of 3/4" hail storms. Since NWS does not issue warnings for lightning i think leaving 3/4" hail criteria would be a good idea just for the chance to warn people of the deadly lightning occuring in these storms. Remember the goal of the warning is to save lives. I agree the 3/4" hail doesn't kill but the lightning can. I know you dont need 3/4" hail for lightning to occure,but raising the criteria for hail takes away a chance to warn the public of the deadly lightning occuring in these storms.

 

[rdale]

Lightning has a warning method that is MUCH better than any human or computer generated system on the planet...

It's called --- thunder. People will hear and heed thunder much more often than they would a "lightning warning."

 

[Greg Stumpf]

Lightning has a warning method that is MUCH better than any human or computer generated system on the planet...

It's called --- thunder. People will hear and heed thunder much more often than they would a "lightning warning."

Thunder always has negative lead time. Unless the lightning hits you. Then it is zero lead time.

Stats indicate that a large spike in lightning related casualties are from the first CG strike of the storm. If I find references, I'll post them.

 

[rdale]

I'd believe that stat.

I still don't think that means we need to issue SVR's on 3/4 inch hail because they produce deadly lightning. If they are at the point of 3/4" hail, they are already producing lightning.

 

[mikegeukes]

Example of hail reports for 23 counties in the NWS Grand Rapids CWA.

Quick glance at the NCDC Storm Events Database minus 2 months of data,
shows the following:

There was 1,062 hail reports of 3/4 inch or higher.
If you used, 1.00 inch or higher, there was only 506 reports.
556 of the hail reports were less than 1.00 inch.(52.4% of the reports)

I am all in favor of raising the hail criteria to 1.00.