In-cloud lightning, tornado "precursor"?

[Karen Politte]

I happened to be home this afternoon right around the time that TWC were showing their lunchtime installment of Storm Stories. It featured some extreme snow story, and also an old story about the Andover/overpass tornado with some new narration.

I was listening to the commentary about the "skies growing dark over Andover Kansas" in the general way all of these documentaries go - and something that they said really perked my ears up.

They described the tremendous amounts of in-cloud lightning, and then immediately after this directly described these tremendous amounts of in-cloud lightning as a "precursor to tornadoes".

Hmmm, I thought. I wracked my brains trying to recall another point in time that I had heard this assertation. I couldn't. Are we now widely distributing the theory that large amounts of in-cloud lightning is a precursor to tornado formation?? If not, is it really wise to broadcast this on an - albeit sensationalist - documentary that goes out to the public at large? The next time a local sees a storm on the horizon that is flashing more than they have ever seen before, are they going to consider calling in a tornado alert to the NWS just like they would for a rotating wall cloud??

Rotating wall clouds, rapidly circulating scud, and funnel formation can all be viewed as a precursor to tornado formation - but for the life of me I cannot see a way to justify lightning intensity as a tornado precursor. YES the strongest storms are generally the most prolific lightning producers and YES there are some interesting lightning phenomena associated with tornadic supercells - but for me at least that is where all similarities, precursors and indicators end.

Karen

 

[Chris Nuttall]

I have seen tornadic storms at night have so much lightning it might as well have been day. On the other hand, I've seen storms produce tornadoes with hardly any lightning.

They probably just used that phrase as a catch-all for "the storm was getting stronger." However, that doesn't sound nearly as cool or catchy as "a precursor for a tornado."

 

[J.K Oudshoorn]

During a tornado.... there will be alot of in-cloud lightning.. As you know.. a tornado is a very strong inflow of a storm... this inflow lifts the negatively charged section(s) of a t-storm to a higher point/elevation in the cloud (or how to prenounce this?).. making it harder to produce cloud-to-ground lightning, but easier for in-cloud lightning. (because the negatively charged section is closer to the positively charged top or anvil).

Also... when storms are intensifying...we see exactly the same thing. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Regards,

Koos

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

I saw that episode of Storm Stories as well, becuase I recorded it the other day after seeing in the description something about a man be hit by tornado propelled truck (turned out he took shelter under his truck during the Andover tornado and his truck dropped back down on him, he lived).

Some of the stuff they said on there really caught my attention like the lightning-tornado connection. I have already deleted the show so I cant go back and check, but I remember them saying (I could be wrong) it was not the large amount of in-cloud lightning, but the drop off of intense in-cloud lightning as the updraft weakened was the precursor for a tornado.

I remember hearing other theories about a links between lightning and tornadoes, but I dont think they were any more than theories. This show acted like it was well known fact. It sure seemed pretty new to me.

I will try and record it again if it comes on and get exactly what they say next time.

 

[Jason Harris]

Some articles on the subject

1. "Lightning is a precursor to tornadoes," Mobilia explained.
from Dec. 26 2007 article posted:
http://www.paloaltodailynews.com/article/2007-12-26-lightning-map

2. April 26, 2000
"Our studies show a very big spike in the lightning's flash rate prior to formation of a tornado," Goodman says. "It's an early clue for weather forecasters to take a more detailed look at other storm characteristics with radar. And perhaps a chance for them to get warnings out earlier, saving more lives.

from: http://www.comdig.com/index.php?id_issue=2000.17#553

3. May 1, 2000
"The thing that's unique about these severe storms," says Goodman, "is that most of the lightning is in-cloud, not cloud-to-ground. A typical storm may have a 4:1 ratio of in-cloud to cloud-to-ground lightning. The ratio for one of the Stroud supercells was 23:1! There were 90 in-cloud flashes recorded in one minute compared to only 4 cloud-to-ground flashes."
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast01may_1m.htm


4.
Storm Electricity Aspects of the Blackwell/Udall Storm of 25 May 1955
Don Burgess
University of Oklahoma (CIMMS)
Retired from the National Severe Storms Laboratory
"The Blackwell/Udall electrical activity was so intense that it led to an electrical heating theory for tornado formation. That theory remained viable until better data was obtained in the 1970s…again in Oklahoma."
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/wxevents/19550525/stormelectricity.php
(includes references)

 

[scott r currens]

1. "Lightning is a precursor to tornadoes," Mobilia explained.
from Dec. 26 2007 article posted:
http://www.paloaltodailynews.com/article/2007-12-26-lightning-map

2. April 26, 2000
"Our studies show a very big spike in the lightning's flash rate prior to formation of a tornado," Goodman says. "It's an early clue for weather forecasters to take a more detailed look at other storm characteristics with radar. And perhaps a chance for them to get warnings out earlier, saving more lives.

from: http://www.comdig.com/index.php?id_issue=2000.17#553

3. May 1, 2000
"The thing that's unique about these severe storms," says Goodman, "is that most of the lightning is in-cloud, not cloud-to-ground. A typical storm may have a 4:1 ratio of in-cloud to cloud-to-ground lightning. The ratio for one of the Stroud supercells was 23:1! There were 90 in-cloud flashes recorded in one minute compared to only 4 cloud-to-ground flashes."
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast01may_1m.htm


4.
Storm Electricity Aspects of the Blackwell/Udall Storm of 25 May 1955
Don Burgess
University of Oklahoma (CIMMS)
Retired from the National Severe Storms Laboratory
"The Blackwell/Udall electrical activity was so intense that it led to an electrical heating theory for tornado formation. That theory remained viable until better data was obtained in the 1970s…again in Oklahoma."
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/wxevents/19550525/stormelectricity.php
(includes references)

A lot of theories about lightning and tornadoes seem to be based on a hand full of events. I think there are many tornadic supercells that disagree with the theories. The first one that comes to mind is the 6/12/04 Mulvane supercell. During its tornadoes that supercell produced nearly continuous staccato CGs in the updraft region. A supercell Mike Hollingshead was on in 2004 had a continuous thunder up until the point it produced its first tornado. From that point on the supercell appeared to produce much less lightning. I think every possible combination of CG vs. in-cloud lightning and tornado or non-tornado has been observed. IMHO there is no clear cut relationship between the behavior of lightning and tornadoes.

 

[Rob Herman]

During the Greensburg Storm, I didn't notice anything spectacular lightning wise. I have observed many non-severe storms that put out more electricity then this one did.

 

[Willie Dines]

A lot of theories about lightning and tornadoes seem to be based on a hand full of events. I think there are many tornadic supercells that disagree with the theories. The first one that comes to mind is the 6/12/04 Mulvane supercell. During its tornadoes that supercell produced nearly continuous staccato CGs in the updraft region. A supercell Mike Hollingshead was on in 2004 had a continuous thunder up until the point it produced its first tornado. From that point on the supercell appeared to produce much less lightning. I think every possible combination of CG vs. in-cloud lightning and tornado or non-tornado has been observed. IMHO there is no clear cut relationship between the behavior of lightning and tornadoes.

I agree with this view, purely because no 2 storms are alike, they're all different in their own ways and also when it comes to severe storms, there's never really a set pattern of any kind as storms can create their own enviroments from time to time.

To some storms, the lightning levels may be a kinda heads up of possible tornadic development, but I imagine that it would only be an occasional occurance, but I may be wrong

Willie

 

[Rob Herman]

To some storms, the lightning levels may be a kinda heads up of possible tornadic development, but I imagine that it would only be an occasional occurance, but I may be wrong

I was surprised by the lack of electrical activity during the Greensburg event. I guess I was expecting Mother Nature to give a heads up by providing a barrage of lightning bolts to scare people to take cover. Wishful thinking on my part, however the NWS did a great job of providing warning.

 

[Andy Elliott]

I know there was a study that showed a significant increase in CG+ lightning strikes shortly before tornadogenesis. I believe there is some truth to this claim - but as stated in earlier posts, many other physical processes have to be in place for tornadoes to occur.

 

[Gene Moore]

I have seen tornadic storms at night have so much lightning it might as well have been day. On the other hand, I've seen storms produce tornadoes with hardly any lightning.

I'm going to side with Chris on this one about some tornadic storms having very little lightning.

Case in point to the group. How many of you attended the South Dakota tornado marathon 24 June 2003 when Manchester happened? I started out well south of there and chased storm after storm to the northeast. Almost all the storms had little or no visible lightning, or thunder. Especially after Manchester to the east on highway #14. There were a couple tornadoes that lasted for a long time. A bunch of us set up tripods and just stood and enjoyed the show. I don't remember seeing one cloud to ground bolt, there were none in my 20+ minute tornado footage. Anyone else catch a bolt in your video? The storm about 20 miles east of there near Spirit Lake that produced three more tornadoes did have a little thunder, but again, no bolts. This was a huge day with many chasers getting a dozen or more tornadoes, but one thing stuck in my mind, very little lightning.

Gene Moore

 

[Karen Politte]

I'm going to side with Chris on this one about some tornadic storms having very little lightning.

Case in point to the group. How many of you attended the South Dakota tornado marathon 24 June 2003 when Manchester happened? I started out well south of there and chased storm after storm to the northeast. Almost all the storms had little or no visible lightning, or thunder. Especially after Manchester to the east on highway #14. There were a couple tornadoes that lasted for a long time. A bunch of us set up tripods and just stood and enjoyed the show. I don't remember seeing one cloud to ground bolt, there were none in my 20+ minute tornado footage. Anyone else catch a bolt in your video? The storm about 20 miles east of there near Spirit Lake that produced three more tornadoes did have a little thunder, but again, no bolts. This was a huge day with many chasers getting a dozen or more tornadoes, but one thing stuck in my mind, very little lightning.

Gene Moore

And that's just my point - there seems to be just as much circumstantial evidence for storms about to undergo tornadogenesis lacking significant lightning activity as there is circumstantial evidence suggesting that they experience an upturn in electrical discharge prior to tornadogenesis.

I was in South Dakota on June 23rd 03 and I was on the Manchester storm. As with (I estimate) 85% of the significant tornadic storms I have been on - I recall little to no lightning activity. One tornado sticks in my mind for lightning - and that was May 12th 2004 Attica. After dark, the storm and tornado that tracked across open country to the northwest of Anthony, KS had significant amounts of CG lightning directly around and behind of the meso area while a major tornado was in progress. Not only was there copious lightning - but the lightning that it was producing was of the notable "smooth-chanelled" type that many others have documented in and around major tornadic circulations. But - I digress.

The real issue of course is IS there an increase in lightning activity that could act as a "precursor" to a tornado?? In all of our 5, 10, 15 or 20 years of chasing - has anybody ever stood under a meso and thought "hmm, the lightning's got much more intense, I think it's about to tornado!"? For me at least - the answer would have to be no.

"Precursors" to tornadoes - in my opinion - can only be seen as signs of visual rotation. The base begins to wrap hook precip. around an unseen area of lazy rotation, some scud is drawn under the base from rain-cooled air in the core and forms a wall cloud, a wall cloud that is confirmed to be rotating, a rapidly rotating wall cloud, a funnel cloud. All of these things can be seen as precursors to tornadoes.

Every other aspect of a storm is interchangeable when expecting tornadogenesis. Lightning activity, inflow tails, vault regions, large hail, lightning, mushy vs. hard towers - we have all seen storms produce tornadoes which either displayed or lacked one or more of the above characteristics. I think a lot of documentaries are confusing signs of a strong/severe storm with signs that a tornado's coming. This can only be a bad thing and it's helping us regress in the education of the public at large about tornadoes and identifying severe weather. The last thing we need are people fleeing for the basement because it's thundering outside.

Karen

 

[Gerard Jebaily]

Most everybody has seen different electrical activity with tornadic storms. I’ve seen very frequent Pos CG strikes, very frequent intercloud, and no lightning whatsoever. And there are many storms that have the same electrical patterns that don’t produce tornados at all. IMO, there is no conclusive evidence that prove a pattern in electrical activity as a precursor to tornadogenisis. This kind of pattern is almost like seeing the green tinted clouds and saying it’s a precursor to tornado formation. While there have been some cases where this is confirmed, there have been plenty where it has not. And many storms don’t have the green tint before tornado formation. While it is a cool phenomenon, I don’t think it should be linked to tornado formation in the least, nor should electrical activity unless it is proven very conclusive otherwise. “In-cloud lightning, tornado "precursor"?” I say, BUSTED!

 

[Jeff Miller]

One word... Mulvane.

As many who were on the mulvane storm know in 2004, this tornadic storm had prolific and copious CG lightning - which I noticed, watching the video, actually picked up in intensity once the funnel began its evolution toward a tornado.

Also, listening to sound recordings of the Xenia Tornado in 1974 also indicates CG lightning was very common with this particular F5 tornado producer.

It is my opinion that the factors that determine lightning type and frequency are completely different then the factors that determine tornadogenesis and subsequent vortex related actions. Though there are many coincidences, the bottom line is tornadoes are produced by interactions of different shear and wind profiles with instability - and lightning is produced by separation of charge. Unless it can be proven that some element of tornado production alters the electrical charge distribution in the cumulonimbus cloud, I have to regard any attempt to prove one theory or another as far as lightning and tornadic supercells as mere coincidences.

 

[Willie Dines]

I'm inclined to agree with you on this one also Jeff, but there there is 1 possibility that might have been overlooked already.... but.....

The only possibile reason for an increase in lightning production via tornadogenisis, is the possibility of the extra heat that is being drawn up into the storm's core via the up extra updraft, which may lift any hail in that vacinity of the storm, may increse the likelihood of any lightning strike(s), but this is only a possiblity and I'm not sure if this is a plausible possibilty.

Willie