Dennis Dennison
November hurricanes mean a nasty spring ahead
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Ida
- Thread starter Jason Harris
- Start date
William Combes
Brett Adair
EF5
She is about to peak an eye. We are headed for the coast this evening to intercept Ida. She looks to be at least a category 1 hurricane as she nears the coastline.
Justin Wiley
EF1
Good nasty or bad nasty?
Rob Wadsworth
EF5
As of ten minutes ago; Ida has a projected wind speed of ~100 mph. Hurricane watch is up, and it looks as though New Orleans is gonna catch it. It is expected to strengthen before landfall...
Isn't this a bit late in the season? Maybe much warmer Gulf currents are to blame. I know this is an El Nino year for the Pacific; but does the Gulf waters showing an above temp for this time of year? Any stats?
Isn't this a bit late in the season? Maybe much warmer Gulf currents are to blame. I know this is an El Nino year for the Pacific; but does the Gulf waters showing an above temp for this time of year? Any stats?
MClarkson
EF5
I agree with Rich. Gonna be tough to stay strong. Buoy 42012 between Mobile and Pensacola is reporting a 73.4 degree SST. Throw in the shear too. Probably worth a local chase for those in the area, but i would be planning on TS strength winds.
rdale
EF5
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS.
Jason Harris
EF5
Up to 105 mph now. Will it at least briefly make Cat 3? Getting close.
Charles Kuster
EF4
I am surprised Ida has attained this intensity, but the pressure is slowly starting to rise and it will be moving into rather unfavorable conditions soon. I would be surprised if the storm did not weaken quickly and be a strong tropical storm when it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Ida should move essentially north before taking a sharp easterly turn as it is absorbed by a mid-level trough and becomes extratropical.
The vortex data message at 23Z was quite interesting. It noted hail and continuous lightning in the north quadrant! There was vigorous convection on the north side of the storm at this time, but hail is pretty rare in tropical systems. Good luck to anyone chasing!
The vortex data message at 23Z was quite interesting. It noted hail and continuous lightning in the north quadrant! There was vigorous convection on the north side of the storm at this time, but hail is pretty rare in tropical systems. Good luck to anyone chasing!
Stuart Robinson
EF5
I cant make this one (I would have to leave in 6 hours time and I just can't make it)
Like most of us, I waited and waited and left it just too late! Good look to all who go.
I was 50/50 weather to go after Ida - now I am glad that I did not!
IMO Ida will be a strong tropical storm at landfall - I would not be too fooled at what you are seeing now (CAT2) as Ida faces a whole lot of issues before landall.
Cooler waters over the Northern GOM will hurt Ida - but Ida's forward speed (quick!) means less time over this cooler water.
I then see 40 knots of 300mb flow over Ida when she reaches the North Gulf - and if this was all, look at the dry air over Florida right now (low 60's dewpoints) watch the effect this dry air has on Ida once it gets ingested.
However I agree, this is a notiable weather event to follow in November and *if* this had been September, then you may well have been watching a CAT5 in the Gulf right now!
Like most of us, I waited and waited and left it just too late! Good look to all who go.
I was 50/50 weather to go after Ida - now I am glad that I did not!
IMO Ida will be a strong tropical storm at landfall - I would not be too fooled at what you are seeing now (CAT2) as Ida faces a whole lot of issues before landall.
Cooler waters over the Northern GOM will hurt Ida - but Ida's forward speed (quick!) means less time over this cooler water.
I then see 40 knots of 300mb flow over Ida when she reaches the North Gulf - and if this was all, look at the dry air over Florida right now (low 60's dewpoints) watch the effect this dry air has on Ida once it gets ingested.
However I agree, this is a notiable weather event to follow in November and *if* this had been September, then you may well have been watching a CAT5 in the Gulf right now!
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George Kourounis
EF2
I'm sitting this one out too. I just can't justify the the idea of travelling all the way from Canada for what will probably be a tropical storm or (at best) a weak Cat 1 at landfall. I'll be watching this one on satellite & Radar.
Good luck to those in the south who are going for an intercept. I hope it's not too much of a sloppy mess for you guys!
I also have to be in Calgary later this week, so that helps the decision making process tremendously.
George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca
Good luck to those in the south who are going for an intercept. I hope it's not too much of a sloppy mess for you guys!
I also have to be in Calgary later this week, so that helps the decision making process tremendously.
George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca
Dan Robinson
This one is tempting just for the novelty of intercepting a November hurricane, however weak it may be. However, looking at the cost vs reward jolts me back to reality.
Nonetheless, I think Ida may offer a couple of headliner events post-landfall. Onshore winds as she bombs off the Atlantic might give that coastline more of a show than the Gulf landfall. Could also be a decent pressure gradient between the Midwestern high and remnant Ida.
Nonetheless, I think Ida may offer a couple of headliner events post-landfall. Onshore winds as she bombs off the Atlantic might give that coastline more of a show than the Gulf landfall. Could also be a decent pressure gradient between the Midwestern high and remnant Ida.
Mike Davis
EF1
Ya' know, Dan, I was thinking the same thing as you did. IDA may be more impressive coming off shore into the Atlantic.
With that in mind, and if it hits the now projected Nassau/Duval Cty, FL area, there are many places along the coast for great looks. Particularly, look for a "Fort Clinch State Park", which is along Rt. A1A in Nassau County, FL, just south of Fernandina Beach.
This park has a 1/4 mile strong concrete/steel pier that would give wonderful observation. I would suggest you bring any credentials along, in case the pier is closed, to show you are a Chaser. They have allowed us in the past.
As an added bonus, this is the observation area for the Kings Bay Nuclear Submarine Pens, which is now going to Storm Status. You might see a parade of big Nukers heading out to sea. They have to stay above water at that point of departure.
Good luck to all. Oh yeah, Fernandina also has good Sea Food!
With that in mind, and if it hits the now projected Nassau/Duval Cty, FL area, there are many places along the coast for great looks. Particularly, look for a "Fort Clinch State Park", which is along Rt. A1A in Nassau County, FL, just south of Fernandina Beach.
This park has a 1/4 mile strong concrete/steel pier that would give wonderful observation. I would suggest you bring any credentials along, in case the pier is closed, to show you are a Chaser. They have allowed us in the past.
As an added bonus, this is the observation area for the Kings Bay Nuclear Submarine Pens, which is now going to Storm Status. You might see a parade of big Nukers heading out to sea. They have to stay above water at that point of departure.
Good luck to all. Oh yeah, Fernandina also has good Sea Food!
Drew.Gardonia
When I was in the military in 2002, I was stationed at Ft. Eustis, VA (close to Norfolk and Newport News) for AIT. We were under a Hurricane Watch for a Hurricane (i can't remember the name but I remember it dumped a crap load of rain in Oct or Nov for days on end, and barely missed us).
Anyhow, that following spring when I was out of the military and back home in KC was one of the worst years for tornadoes in the KC Metro Area, as my dad's work in Riverside, MO was decimated by a true F4 (not EF4) on May 4, 2003 of which one of the largest outbreaks for tornadoes (401 Reported) occurred over a week long period (May 3 - May 11) extended over 19 States, and 1 Canadian Province.
So this late Hurricane in the Gulf right now, is very promising for what's in store to come next year.
Strap your panties on boys, cause it's gonna get ugly next spring, because bagging tornadoes, should be as plentiful as grass on the prarie. Lock and load, and prepare to rock and roll.
EDIT: Interesting tidbit of info....2002 was an El-Nino year, just as 2009 is!!!!!!
http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WEATHER/03/07/el.nino.2002/
This is great news for 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Damn skippy Dennis!!! It's gonna be nasty nasty and in a way we all been waiting for.
Anyhow, that following spring when I was out of the military and back home in KC was one of the worst years for tornadoes in the KC Metro Area, as my dad's work in Riverside, MO was decimated by a true F4 (not EF4) on May 4, 2003 of which one of the largest outbreaks for tornadoes (401 Reported) occurred over a week long period (May 3 - May 11) extended over 19 States, and 1 Canadian Province.
So this late Hurricane in the Gulf right now, is very promising for what's in store to come next year.
Strap your panties on boys, cause it's gonna get ugly next spring, because bagging tornadoes, should be as plentiful as grass on the prarie. Lock and load, and prepare to rock and roll.
EDIT: Interesting tidbit of info....2002 was an El-Nino year, just as 2009 is!!!!!!
http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WEATHER/03/07/el.nino.2002/
This is great news for 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Damn skippy Dennis!!! It's gonna be nasty nasty and in a way we all been waiting for.
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rdale
EF5
2002 was EN almost all year, while 2009 didn't EN until late spring / early summer. What connection is there between "November hurricane = active tornado season following" other than it happened once before?
