Hurricane Jimena

[Jeff Snyder]

Somewhat surprised nobody is talking about this one, since it looks like the best hurricane so far this year in the NHC domain. Current sat images reveal a strong hurricane with a very small eye surrounded by strong convection. NHC currently has 115kt max wind speed, with a forecast of 125 kt max wind in a day. The HWRF and GFDL forecast the storm to move northward and affect the southern tip of Baja California, though the GFDL it a bit farther east (into the Gulf of California). The GFDL also forecasts landfall intensity of Cat 3; the HWRF maintains borderline Cat 4 intensity at landfall.

I know nothing about this part of Mexico, but Google Maps does show one seemingly good road along the coast in that part of the country. Anyone thinking of making the trip?

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yes, I'm also surprised this is not a popular topic, given the slow tropical action elsewhere. I'm not a big fan of chasing in Cabo.... but it's a "10" on the scale of pre-hurricane chase party locations... so if I did not have important business next week, I might head down there for fun.

The footage from that area is difficult to sell, as non-US falling hurricanes are just not that popular over the long haul. Having said that, someone will likely get some insane footage now! The most interesting possibility is what happens when (if) the system moves into Arizona. There seems to be some good timing with a west coast system moving into the area at the same time.

Well heck..... now that I've written about it I'm going to have to look at flights.

W.

 

[Jason Foster]

I'd chase that....even got my passport updated, but I'm heading further south shortly (Chile). It would be nice to grab Jimena, then be back at the office, ramping up for next go for 94L when it gets closer to landfall. I've never done a Mexican chase though, so I would certainly want to make sure I could get out in time to return if a storm was threatening the US coastline, for the reason Warren stated.

 

[Charles Kuster]

Jimena has become a beautiful category four hurricane today. Outflow looks great in all four quadrants, though the eye has become slightly less defined/even smaller than it was this morning. It looks like the hurricane will move between a weak mid level low and a high located over Mexico. These features should steer Jimena basically NNW until in impacts Baja California. The HWRF (my personal favorite) takes the storm very close to Todas Santos. As of now, it looks like Jimena will most likely make landfall between Todas Santos and Puerto San Carlos sometime later on Tuesday.

The storm should weaken at least a little before making landfall. It looks like it will undergo some southwesterly shear (15-20kts per the 12Z GFS and 10-15kts per the 12Z NAM). This combined with the somewhat cooler waters further north should cause Jimena to make landfall at a lower intensity then it is now (maybe weak category 3 depending on how long before landfall). Good luck to anyone who decides to chase!

 

[Dan Robinson]

The only problem with a Jimena intercept is this:

http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=24.182463,-110.952644&spn=0.277177,0.527&t=h&z=12

Nothing to hit, nowhere to shelter!

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Well, I dont have the money or interest in traveling into mexico.

I am however waiting to see what the actual track will be, as if it comes up far enough, we here in Arizona could get some nice storms out of it next week.

There already has been an effect as today we has thunderstorms develop.

 

[Joe Dorn]

Generally speaking our drought breakers come from that part of the Pacific... Maybe it will bring some much needed rain to south and central Texas. I have been watching it with that hope in mind...

There is no way I would travel in Mexico at this time.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Anyone remember all the talk about hurricane "Norbert" last year?

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=18204

Many people were tempted to "try" to chase there (tip of the Baja penninsula) but declined because of the danger and risks OTHER than the actual storm (and exacerbated by the storm).

There is a horrible road network, desert like terrain, subject to flash floods and mud. There are little populations, mostly remote fishing villages and farming areas. Getting fuel would be a big challenge. Dealing with the locals may be the biggest risk (robbery) in that section.

The Yucatan penninsula in the W Caribbean is relatively "safe" and touristy. This part of Mexico (Baja) is the worst place to ntercept a hurricane in. However, I am sure there are some of us out there that would go anyway (isn't Kouranis going to Mexico's crystal cave and maybe he'll swing by to chase Jimena)?

About the storm itself, it should come in to the SW Baja Penninsula in the Cat 2-3 range before the shear kicks in (about the evening to midnight time-frame on Tuesday 9/1) ... A night intercept in this area is also discouraged ;-)

Good luck!

 

[George Kourounis]

It is tempting to try and intercept Jimena, and I probably would do it if I wasn't already going to be in another part of Mexico on a once in a lifetime expedition to the Crystal Cave of Giants. Otherwise, I'd probably try to fly to Cabo or La Paz and then drive toPuerto San Carlos or Todos Santos. The odds of getting stuck would be high and yes there are risks in some parts of the world, so you really need to weigh the pros and cons.

Warren also made a good point that a hurricane, even a major one, hitting a sparsely populated area of Baja will not genereate a lot of interest in the international news and stock footage markets.

I'll be back home from Mexico on Sunday, just in time for 94L to get up to strength and possibly make a landfall on the Atlantic side of the continent.

George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca

 

[Ed Boik]

I am however waiting to see what the actual track will be, as if it comes up far enough, we here in Arizona could get some nice storms out of it next week.

That is exactly what I thought. The forecast looks to position the future depression nicely for a good boost the otherwise terrible monsoon.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I'll be back home from Mexico on Sunday, just in time for 94L to get up to strength and possibly make a landfall on the Atlantic side of the continent.

I hope so!

 

[Warren Faidley]

The only problem with a Jimena intercept is this:

http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=24.182463,-110.952644&spn=0.277177,0.527&t=h&z=12

Nothing to hit, nowhere to shelter!

Yes, those are good reasons alone not to go but main issue right now is storm size, with the main core only about 30 miles wide at last check. In addition, the path is still uncertain and Pacific storms in this region seem to be more difficult to pinpoint. I am guessing because of the lack of substantial data in the geographical region, especially to the west. Another big problem, I recall, are adjustments to location. This is not like the US coastlines where you can adjust your location by several hundred miles. The Cabo area is IT. Moving anywhere else provides poor road choices in addition to the lack of infrastructure.

I **think** the east coast of the US will take a hit this year, given the pattern over the last few weeks.

W.

 

[Jason Foster]

I just got finished blogging about whether or not I would intercept if I didn't have other international travel plans: http://www.weatherwarrior.net/blog/?p=952

I would seriously consider it. I know there wouldn't be much of a market for this storm, and the risks and hazards for this would be off the charts, but I think it would be a great adventure.

If the storm had any chance of heading closer to the tip of the Baja, I did scope out positions, but it is risky at best. Structures seem to be built well enough, but we are talk Mexico here, and I don't know how much assurances there is with building structures there. Additionally, looking at the satellite images, you can easily see where significant flash flooding would be an issue well in advance of the eye striking. Mudslides could also be an issue. The resorts and adjacent towns are still extremely small. Unknowns are transportation in around the towns and resort. Unknown access of flights in and out (I suspect private charter would be the only option), and would the airfields (barely anything) be in good enough conditions after the storm to allow for landings/take-offs. Those are some of the issues I looked at for a chase of this type.

Now my question is, will I be back from S.American in time for 94L..but that's for the other thread.

 

[Nikki Golesh]

That is exactly what I thought. The forecast looks to position the future depression nicely for a good boost the otherwise terrible monsoon.

It has been a terrible monsoon!!! I am a Phoenix native, but will be watching this storm for more than the impact it has on us, I will be vacationing in San Diego this weekend

 

[cdcollura]

Good afternoon,

...Now my question is, will I be back from S.American in time for 94L..but that's for the other thread.

How long are you gone to Chile / Ski trip? If (and a big IF) 94 L affects us it should be by this coming weekend.

But in 2009, I am not holding my breath.

Back to this thread (Jimena), I see a nightime landfall (Ugh!) right smack in the middle of a dark and desolate Mexican night ... No lights and no place to stay.

No tent can withstand 115 MPH winds ;-(