evan anderson
EF0
Tried to post earlier as Invest 94.
Hurricane Isaac (2012)
- Thread starter evan anderson
- Start date
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
It's Isaac now (as of 5 PM) ... And likely to become a hurricane the next few days.
MODS: Feel free to rename / edit.
It's Isaac now (as of 5 PM) ... And likely to become a hurricane the next few days.
MODS: Feel free to rename / edit.
Stan Rose
EF5
And several straight runs of the EC has it plowing into New Orleans next Friday--let the media hype begin!
Warren Faidley
Supporter
The GFS is also leaning towards a more westerly solution, although the storm is somewhat disorganized ATM and that could effect eventual movement.
Yes, I can just hear the Star Trek like "red alert" sounding through the halls of TWC as the reporters begin to loosen up their hips to be able to bend sideways when the 45 mph "hurricane farce" winds hit.
W.
Yes, I can just hear the Star Trek like "red alert" sounding through the halls of TWC as the reporters begin to loosen up their hips to be able to bend sideways when the 45 mph "hurricane farce" winds hit.
W.
On the lighter side, if Isaac were to take a more western route, it could provide some very beneficial rains to drought stricken areas of the southern U.S., namely Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma.
Justin Bailey
EF2
looking more and more likely the "outlier" ECMWF will verify as the storm stays weak and also now that the center has reformed further to the south. Atleast one can say that a landfall in eastern florida is becoming more unlikely. Unfortunately, I live on the MS gulf coast and this westward trend isnt something I want to see.
MClarkson
EF5
Certainly a more westward trend would result in the potential for a stronger storm impacting the US, possibly given time to re-intensify in the GOM. A track along the islands towards Miami would result in a rather large amount of land interaction. Its interesting to see that the nested models don't develop a particularly strong storm in the near future, despite a good upper level anticyclone progged.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Agreed-- the current weakness of the cyclone, the relocation of the center further S, and the W trend in the models are all helping to create a potentially more interesting landfall down the road. Yesterday's NHC forecast-- showing the storm going from Hispaniola to Cuba to S FL-- probably wouldn't have allowed the cyclone to become very strong before reaching the USA. That having been said, there have been some important exceptions to this assumption-- like Hurricane King of 1950, which intensified very rapidly in the small space between Cuba and S FL and came ashore at Miami with surprising ferocity.
The models seem to be reaching a broad consensus tonight Re: the FL Panhandle.
The models seem to be reaching a broad consensus tonight Re: the FL Panhandle.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I have little faith in the models right now, given that the cyclone is still getting it's act together.
One solution (also supported by the GPS), is to intensify the cyclone after it emerges from Cuba and take it on path that parallels the western FL coastline. Depending on the strength, it could be a real nightmare for damage potential and a pain the rump for forecasters to pinpoint a landfall. Could be yet another Pensacola chase!
I have not had time to go over the Hurricane Charlie archives, but it would be interesting to revisit that storm and compare met. conditions. I do know Charlie took a more westward track.
W.
One solution (also supported by the GPS), is to intensify the cyclone after it emerges from Cuba and take it on path that parallels the western FL coastline. Depending on the strength, it could be a real nightmare for damage potential and a pain the rump for forecasters to pinpoint a landfall. Could be yet another Pensacola chase!
I have not had time to go over the Hurricane Charlie archives, but it would be interesting to revisit that storm and compare met. conditions. I do know Charlie took a more westward track.
W.
Keith Wilson
EF2
On Tuesday I picked Destin, FL (give or take 25 miles E/W) and I see no reason to change that yet. I'm definitely not wishcasting because I don't really want it to hit that close to home (30 miles SSW of me).
With a more complete data package to feed the models tonight it will be interesting to see how it will affect the track, if at all.
With a more complete data package to feed the models tonight it will be interesting to see how it will affect the track, if at all.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Latest IR image shows Isaac starting to condense and form a much more organized core with better outflow. (8-24-12 @03:15 UTC).
This might be the start of the show if it holds together.
Glad I did an extensive recon in Biloxi after Katrina!
W.
This might be the start of the show if it holds together.
Glad I did an extensive recon in Biloxi after Katrina!
W.
RMacDonald
Just on the outer frame of my forecast output, looked at Key West areas. Seeing forecasted winds around the 26th at 14Z 07037G54MPH, then peaking around the 27th at 00Z 07048G70MPH. Have a zone of the highest winds from 26th at 21Z to 27th at 06Z. Again just my initial look at it, still high degree of variability..
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Well you never know.....
Here is the track of the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. (Just sent to me by a chase friend).
Spooky... very similar track.
Here is the track of the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. (Just sent to me by a chase friend).
Spooky... very similar track.
RMacDonald
11Z: Still tracking some good thunderstorms moving into eastern Florida region. Could see isolated wind gusts in the low 50's with the stronger cells. In addition Key West area getting some good rains moving into the area, with potential for isolated winds up to 36mph across the area. Still seeing the stronger steady winds above 40-45 mph after 26th at 06Z across the Ft Lauderdale and points southward areas.
TS Isaac OverWatch: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm
TS Isaac OverWatch: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm
RMacDonald
My 04Z Update: Right now showing Miami to the Florida Keys areas highest threat zone. Projecting winds increasing to 35-40mph around 26/14Z, then increasing up to 45-50mph after 22Z. Highest winds speeds I am showing right now is across the Key West and Homestead area at around 52 mph. Convective Gust potential around 60mph. Showing across Miami and Homestead ares picking up 2.8 to 3.2 inches of rain next 24 hours in addition highest threat for Tornado potential.
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