Hurricane Alpha? -- contest

When will Tropical Storm Alpha occur?

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What say we make some bets on if/when Tropical Storm Alpha will reach named status. To make it interesting, I'll toss in a signed copy of Storm Chasing Handbook for the person who guesses closest. If you don't pick a time, I'll assume it's 0000 UTC. I'll also make this a poll so the naysayers can be heard.

I don't chase hurricanes, but Alpha pans out and makes landfall, I'd have to go chase it just to say I was there. I'm not sure the paths are that optimal that late in the season; if I recall correctly they either stay way down south or get sucked up along the Atlantic seaboard.

Tim
 
I voted "There will be no Alpha"... We have 4 more named storms to go, and climo indicates rapidly decreasing tropical activity through the next two months (refer to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/peakofseason.gif ). The central and eastern Atlantic hasn't been very conducive to tropical cyclone formation for most of this season, as evidenced by the relatively small number of "cape verde" type of storms this year. More often, healthy tropical waves would traverse the rather hostile environment (lots of dry air and shear) in the central and eastern Atlantic before experiencing a more hospitable environment nearer the Antilles and east of the Bahamas.I think it'd be really COOL to see advisories for Alpha, but I'm not sure it'll happen. I'm rather 50/50 regarding the situation.

EDIT: some cool figures at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml
 
I'll take Halloween at 0700Z. No particular reason why...just because 8)
I almost voted for my birthday, but Mom Nature's been sending tornadoes for that, so maybe she'll keep up the new tradition :wink:
Angie
 
Alpha

November 19, 2005, 11am.

Alpha will become a tropical storm but will not reach hurricane status, topping out just under 70 MPH.
 
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