JohnHuntington
EF1
15z HRRR run valid for 21z on the left, 21:30z radar on the right (with tornado warnings).
HRRR did pretty well today!
- Thread starter JohnHuntington
- Start date
JohnHuntington
EF1
Higher res version here:
https://twitter.com/jhuntington/status/465630058875744256
https://twitter.com/jhuntington/status/465630058875744256
Joey Ketcham
EF4
Cool story, bro. .
MClarkson
EF5
Convection allowing models make me happy.
Zack Hargrove
EF2
Actually, it is pretty cool... its downright remarkable.
Zac Flamig
EF1
- Joined
- Dec 20, 2006
- Messages
- 95
HRRR sometimes gets very lucky. Now everyone else just has to get lucky at guessing when that will be.
rdale
EF5
Exactly. Right now it shows most of southern Michigan dry. Oops 
Marcus Diaz
EF5
Yeah its right sometimes, other times is out to lunch. Last Wednesday the 4km NAM nailed the supercells down by the Red River, but it showed almost no precip except for northern KS and NE for yesterday. Let's not forget the HRRR was popping precip in W OK around 22z also, but that never happened.
Rob H
EF5
Initiation was pretty easy to pinpoint with this setup however. Initiation south of Kearney between 19-20Z, supercells almost guaranteed for the next hour or two, tracking down the warm front. I think the HRRR is a wonderful tool, but this setup didn't really test its abilities.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
I'm not sure this was a "luck" case, though. The atmosphere had giant, flashing-light arrows pointed to this area of southeastern Nebraska yesterday; it was one of the easier tornadic supercell forecasts in a good while, IMO. The smaller cells forecast around the main supercell probably happened by "luck", but the HRRR catching on the primary supercell was a good, although very easy, forecast. I've found the HRRR to be rather terrible, overall, this year owing to a tendency to significantly overmix the boundary layer (dropping 2m dewpoints, etc.), but there have been cases for which convective storms materialized pretty similar to HRRR forecasts. As your post implies, it's up to the user to know when the forecast will bust and when it'll verify, however
FWIW, the HRRR also did relatively will with the cluster of supercells in southern Kansas yesterday. It was supercell-o-rama down between Dodge City and McPherson (+/- 50 miles of that line) for most of the late afternoon through early evening. Given the tremendous focus of many on the obvious target along the front/OFB near Lincoln and Omaha, it was also a very enjoyable, rather leisure chase in this "secondary" target area. I think I saw all of 6-10 other chasers total on the 6 different supercells Dan D. and I chased in southern KS yesterday.
Marcus Diaz
EF5
Yes Jeff, Southern Kansas was enjoyable since there was absolutely no chaser convergence. I didn't realize it at the time, but now that I think about it there really was only 10 or so chasers on the storms we saw.
Sean Ramsey
EF4
I saw very few chasers and chatted with one other, but for the most part it was convergence free. Even at the grand finale south of Great Bend where everyone eventually ended up it wasn't much to navigate. I chased from 2:30 to 9pm and never had a lull in the action, but never got in a hurry to Jeff's point. Those kind of days seem so rare.
Stan Rose
EF5
Yeah it was pretty quiet! Sorry i missed you guys. Ran into Roger Hill and about two other groups...it was definitely old school!
Joshua Nall
EF4
Yeah it can be off sometimes but HRRR is great for watching overall trends in how initiation and development may take place. I can't imagine a chaser that doesn't peak at it. Caught tornadoes in KS both Sat and Sun. Saw more sups than chasers... it was unreal. I've used it several times to try for something I could get to... rather than the main show. Sometimes I'll come up empty but that is part of it.
Michael Gavan
EF2
During the 5-21 Denver chaser convergence convention melee extravaganza I was approached by someone randomly on a pull off. He introduced himself, Steve, and we exchanged a few thoughts on the storm. He said...How bout that HRRR today?
All smiles. It nailed it that day. "And thanks to it, we have this convention here in strasburg to talk about it. "
He then went on to say that he works for the NOAA Boulder office and works directly with the HRRR model. He made a tweak a couple weeks ago that he was really excited about...It's working pretty great lately.
Anyway, That was a cool random conversation.
All smiles. It nailed it that day. "And thanks to it, we have this convention here in strasburg to talk about it. "
He then went on to say that he works for the NOAA Boulder office and works directly with the HRRR model. He made a tweak a couple weeks ago that he was really excited about...It's working pretty great lately.
Anyway, That was a cool random conversation.
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