How to utilize RAOB data

[Greg Higgins]

I am interested with how folks utilize RAOB data into their chase planning. What software program or web site do you use? There have been several interesting articles in the (distant) past issues of StormTrack. Has anything changed over the years??

Greg Higgins

 

[rdale]

GEMPAK is great for analyzing soundings, SPC has a nice webpage but it has no ability to modify the sounding for expected conditions. BUFKIT is _the_ tool to use for analyzing forecast soundings.

Looking at what is actually occurring is a REQUIRED aspect of making a forecast.

I again point to METED - they have an EXCELLENT presentation on Skew-T basics, using hodographs, and more...

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/topics_convective.php

 

[Greg Higgins]

Here is a website that has a limited ability to modify the sounding for expected conditions.

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/plot_soundings.cgi?

I would still appreciate comments form chasers regarding how they personally use "upper air data" in planning their chase, etc. Back in the 90's, I believe it was David Hoadley, had written an article for StormTrack that described his method of determining a chase area based on the raob data.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

For "day of" soundings, I don't rely on them very much. I was told that they aren't very reliable because of the fact that only two (sometimes three in a special case) are released in a day and that the atmosphere can change very rapidly in between those. The morning sounding either matches up to your forecast for initial decisions, or it doesn't. I prefer station plots, Mesonet, radar, and satellite the morning of way over Skew-Ts.

I do however, find myself looking at Skew-T models days in advance to get data that I can't normally compute off of upper air maps i.e. LCLs, LI, EHI, helicity values, BRN and SWEAT indices. That type of data usually helps me categorize the situation.

 

[rdale]

I was told that they aren't very reliable because of the fact that only two (sometimes three in a special case) are released in a day and that the atmosphere can change very rapidly in between those.

To clarify - they are very reliable, actually our best way of finding out what's actually going on in the atmosphere. I think what you are saying is that you don't use them as a sole forecast tool and that would be true.

Special soundings can be taken at 18z - 21z which are INSTRUMENTAL in updating your forecast.

 

[david diehl]

The buf-kit program is the forecasting tool that I use to finalize my target area. It has never let me down in 3 years, even though it is a complicated application, and I am, and probably always will be learning to use all the tools of the program.
I have found that Penn state has the best site for data points if any new comer is interested in the program

 

[Greg Blumberg]

To clarify - they are very reliable, actually our best way of finding out what's actually going on in the atmosphere. I think what you are saying is that you don't use them as a sole forecast tool and that would be true.

Special soundings can be taken at 18z - 21z which are INSTRUMENTAL in updating your forecast.

I agree. I don't think I made that very clear. Thanks. They are not the sole forecast tool.

Let me provide an example of what I meant. After the morning sounding, you can't really rely on that sounding much more. You rely on data that has a smaller resolution, both in area and in time snapshots. The closer you get to the actual chase when the cell is on radar, the smaller resolution data you use. Days in advance you look at the models, then when chase day (or a day before) comes along you look at the surface plots and soundings, and when you're finally out on the chase you look at the radar, satellite, and surface plots. So the closer to the actual chase (when you're after the cell) you get, the smaller the resolution of the data you want (again by both in area and in time snapshots.) I hope that made sense. I kinda wish there could be some mathematical equation to say this.

Definitely use the 18z-21z soundings. VERY important.