How Hard Do you beat yourself up for busting a big chase?

[Amos Magliocco]

Busting reminds me breaking up with a girlfriend. When you're young, the pain is more sharp and acute, but doesn't run too deeply and you can recover fast. Youth heals. For me in chasing, examples are the Sitka Bust Club in 1999, or all the tornadoes I missed by minutes in 2000.

As you get older and more mature the pain isn't as direct, but somehow wider and longer-lasting. So a bust like May 24th makes you question everything. I had great equipment, an excellent vehicle, smart chase partners, plenty of time to forecast, and mostly non-stop internet access with which to conduct constant radar analysis. In other words, external factors were as perfect as they will EVER get. Yet things went badly in an almost macabre way.

I stopped kicking myself for May 24th about a month ago, only because it's time to get ready for 2005, and if you go back to the mound thinking of the last hitter who took your best pitch and put it in the bleachers, you're screwed. It's a new inning. Fresh count. But you never forget.

 

[Karen Politte]

As you get older and more mature the pain isn't as direct, but somehow wider and longer-lasting. So a bust like May 24th makes you question everything. I had great equipment, an excellent vehicle, smart chase partners, plenty of time to forecast, and mostly non-stop internet access with which to conduct constant radar analysis. In other words, external factors were as perfect as they will EVER get. Yet things went badly in an almost macabre way.

Amos puts it well.

There's something about May 24th 2004 that just did that to people. I can't explain it. Sometimes I wonder if we were trying to be too smart, NOT going after the warm-frontal beasts in Missouri, and NOT going after the first storm up which was the s-cntrl NE thing. No - what did we do? We went due south out of Lincoln NE, to Marysville KS, "minced around" (Scottish expression), went to the library, admired the trains, caught a burger and then went east. We ended up in freakin' Hiawatha......and went to the library again. Anticyclonic flow aloft, we had chased a model run and paid the obvious price. We were under cirrus, and nothing else. Ugh! See here: http://www.stormskies.com/ChaseDiaryMon24thMay04.htm

On a lighter note, I like to joke that I busted the worst of anyone on the Throckmorton day in 2002. I wasn't even in the right country, let alone state, or county...... :lol:

KR

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I get pretty upset when I screw up and miss out on a big event. I will be depressed about it until there is something to look forward to showing up in the models and then I can starting thinking about all the tornadoes I will get to see the next time instead of dwelling on the tornadoes I missed the last time.
Karen you didn't miss much on the 5/24 warm-front beasts in Missouri. The terrain was terrible and the storm was moving pretty fast.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

I think that perhaps a lot of us will have to be getting used to "busting" a lot more - because I think that busting might be taking on a different meaning in chasing's nouveau-generation. It's no coincidence that the number of tornado reports has sky-rocketed, due I believe at least in part to the huge numbers of weather-followers out looking at storms these days. That's going to mean more tornado reports, more people on any one storm, and more people to tell you what you missed. The early chasers had it good - there WAS nobody up in northeastern South Dakota to relate tales to you of the beastola that you missed, or show you the video - ergo you weren't missing anything, really.

The best storm is always the one that got away. We're just going to have to endure more stories about them, now. Now might be a good time to reconfirm why we're just happy chasing, and accept ahead of time that not everybody sees everything.

This is a very good point and something that I’ve thought about a lot. In my head I think of this as “the supermarket effect.†You know, the way no matter which checkout lane you choose, the one next to you is invariably moving faster. It’s not an illusion, either – there’s a genuine 2/3 likelihood that one of the 2 neighboring lines will be going faster than the line you’re in. Getting back to chasing, the fact is that with the current high and seemingly ever increasing number of knowledgeable chasers, it becomes almost certain that someone will do better than you on any given day. The supermarket effect insures it. If you beat yourself up over things like the fact that your tornado wasn’t as big/photogenic/near/etc as the one that whatsisname got, I foresee nothing but increasing frustration for you.

The point I’m trying to make is that ideally we shouldn’t judge success based on what other people did. We chase because we love storms and we love the whole process of predicting and catching them. The thrill of the hunt, the satisfaction of a good supercell, the icing on the cake that is a tornado – these are the things we live for. Since when did the exact number of tornados you got vs. what somebody else got become the primary factor in determining whether or not a chase is successful? Sure, missing a big event is always going to be annoying, but chasing is not, or at least shouldn’t be, a competitive sport. At the end of a chase day, how many of us immediately begin the process of asking “what did so-and-so get?†as we scour the net and TWC for pictures of the things we missed out on? It’s a normal response, and one that admittedly I’m prone to as well, but I maintain that ideally the results of others shouldn’t alter the satisfaction of the chase that was actually experienced. If I get a tornado, I’m happy regardless of whether it’s the biggest or the best tube of the day. Hell, even if all I got was some cool storm structure on a high risk outbreak day, I’m still going to count the day as a positive result rather than a bust. Regrets are fine, but you can’t them ruin your enjoyment of chasing. Because it’s inevitable that someone somewhere did in fact do much better than you. When absolutely everything goes right, where you’re on the best storm of the day, and and it all comes together right in front of you in a fabulously photogenic manner – that’s a once-in-a-lifetime experience. But there are a lot of lifetimes out there, so any given day is going to produce someone’s chase of a lifetime. Well, so be it, and more power to them. I’ll get mine eventually.

But damn, I’m still kicking myself over May 22nd... :? :wink:

 

[Shane Adams]

Reading through the many posts here, I came to realize that for me anyway, the amount of pain a bust secretes depends largely on how the next chases unfold. May 22 last year was the worst kind of bust possible, the classic "had it nailed, bailed" bust where we sat in our target for over 3 hours and then bailed at the last minute. That was a really crappy evening, and coming back to Norman from southern Nebraska, we had plenty of time to think about it. However, at our gas stop in Concordia that night, I started getting very excited and even confident about the 24th, just two days away. By the time we got home from the 22nd, we were so focused on the 24th (and not making the same mistake again) that the pain of the 22nd went away and never came back.

After we totally blew the 24th, that was some serious psychological punishment for us, and we had another long drive back home to deal with it all. My big post-22nd bust pep talk about how we'd redeem ourselves on the 24th had failed; I'd never busted so badly on such big days so close together. I didn't know what to say to my partner that night, except "we ride again another day."

We chased again on the 26th, but again didn't do well. After that chase, we had passed the first few phases of grief and were now laughing at our own bad luck. This mentality got us through the 26th and a few days after that, but in the back of my mind I knew there was a pain, flowing and ebbing through every fiber of my being, that kept echoing "you're screwing up a classic chase year, you're blowing the 'once-in-a-decade' season you've waited your whole career for." I knew there wasn't much time before I fell back into mental dismay over my failures that week.

Fortunately for us, 2004 was a yar of opportunities, and we were handed another golden one on the 29th. This time we stuck to our guns, and with the help of an amazing nowcaster and friend, wwere able to finally cash in on the insane year that was 2004. That chase erased everything, every tear I had to hold back, every lump in my throat, every churn of my stomach. GONE.

Without the May 29 chase, I dunno how I would've handled things, after having been robbed of 2003, which was (up until 2004) the best season in 10 years. I know I would've continued to chase and do my best, but my psyche would've been more of a return to my early days; the constant, out-to-prove-myself, relent-bordering-on-obsession mindset that continously fueled me. As it were, I continued with my "roll with the punches" mentality that I have come to embrace over recent years, honed by experience.

So I think that how I personally handle busts depends more on how the following chases treat me, than the magnitude of the missed event itself.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Karen you didn't miss much on the 5/24 warm-front beasts in Missouri. The terrain was terrible and the storm was moving pretty fast.

Hehe ... not to rub salt in the wound or anything, but you mean this one?

[Broken External Image]:http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/Skidmore_Tornado1.gif

Actually - I agree with you ... the big cell riding the WF in northwest Missouri that day was extremely HP - we had to penetrate a dense rain curtain just to finally make it up into the cage, and when we got there it had already begun to occlude. Managed to get some cool vid of it as you see here and then twisting away into nothingness, but the base quickly left us and tracked straight east through some rough terrain, where we broke off. I would have MUCH rather been over at the big show in Chester, NE and Kansas that day.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Ugh... Karen brought up Throckmorton... I take back my previous comment. That day still makes me sick :?

Aaron

 

[Fabian Guerra]

Good question. I don't get too upset with myself when I bust. I mean if I really screw up then, yeah, I guess I get a little frustrated but all in all I shake it off pretty quickly. My biggest regrets are when I do not or can not chase or when I am late to a good target but again, I don't really "beat myself" up too badly (ok...maybe just a little ).

Honestly, I am just happy that a few years ago I discovered this storm-chasing passion that I have. I try to savor and learn from every experience. For me chasing is mostly about the journey and not about the destination. Sounds contradicting perhaps being that the goal of each chase is to pick the right "target destination" and get the tornado but still thats how I look at things.

That being said, I completely understand it when others beat themselves up about "busts". I sometimes beat myself up about other things outside of chasing. It seems to be a human, natural, and even sometimes a healthy way to deal with and process negative experiences. Ok, I'm probably getting way too deep here. Again, good question!

Fabian

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Nice pic. Amazing how many of us did the exact same thing on the 24th: blew off the Missouri storm a bit too early, only to get to the Chester storm just a bit too late. I mean, how bad a mistake can it be when so many experienced chasers all did it? Both the HP nature of the Missouri storm and the worsening terrain/road network were obvious, and it was still very early in the day... IMO, it was simply bad luck to decide to head west at that point, not bad decision making.

But I have to agree with Shane, nailing the 29th made up for everything, and the disappointments of the 22nd and 24th all of a sudden seemed not so terrible after all. One good day can make up for quite a lot.

 

[Karen Politte]

Hehe ... not to rub salt in the wound or anything, but you mean this one?

No I mean like this one.

:lol:

(Sorry.....and yours too!)

 

[Bob Schafer]

How many of you have a deep yearning, consciously or subconsciously, to snag the tornado that exceeds any other you have witnessed?

My first "real" chase was June 10, 1999.

http://community.webshots.com/photo/191462...116301154KLoOoH

That day's chase began with zero met knowledge (I probably didn't even know that a storm has an updraft then), no map, no gas, no phone, no computer.........but I was totally, completely, inescapably, passionately HOOKED after that.

The next four years were bittersweet, with many memorable chase days and all the friendships gained and stories to tell tempered by this nagging in my gut from having never exceeded my very first chase day. White Deer, Throck, Pratt, Happy.....I was THERE, and missed 'em all.

May 15, 2003 finally did, but just a little, because in spite of multiple tubes bagged and the fact that it was all shared with my new g/f (met in chat), we busted the wedge. The day had started perfectly. We were under that tower practically from the NM line, but let it briefly get ahead of us for a quick restroom break. Damn. We were back in position forthwith, but had missed the wedge.

But the hex had been broken. I had beaten June 10, 1999.

Then the quest was to REALLY beat 990610 and 030515.

June 12, 2004: Mission Accompli.

Now what? Will I get the same satisfaction from anything less? I think not, but I don't think that matters any more. I think I can just get out there now and chase, without the feeling that there is something to prove to myself. There is still an abundance of desire in me, but not the sick feeling from the failures.

I don't ever need to exceed Mulvane, man. That was the ultimate.

Bob

 

[Karen Politte]

June 12, 2004: Mission Accompli.

Now what? Will I get the same satisfaction from anything less? I think not, but I don't think that matters any more. I think I can just get out there now and chase, without the feeling that there is something to prove to myself. There is still an abundance of desire in me, but not the sick feeling from the failures.

I don't ever need to exceed Mulvane, man. That was the ultimate.

Bob

I doubt that. How can you say that because you've seen Mulvane - that's it for you and nothing will ever exceed it? That sounds like tunnel vision! When talking about something as variable and inifinitely capricious as thunderstorms and tornadoes - how can you say that you will never see anything as stupendously-amazingly-beautiful as the Mulvane tornado?

Sorry to break this to you, but there's more amazing stuff out there than you can ever imagine.

This very core of the matter is all about why I go out. To see something different - something that will never be replicated or copied ever again in the history of the earth. If I saw this on June 24th, should I have sat back and declared that I will never see anything like it again and ergo that's the ultimate?? If I did that - you sure wouldn't be seeing me out on the road anytime soon! No siree.........why spend all that gas money if you've already seen the "ultimate"?

Sorry - but more stuff will happen and I intend to be there to see it. Why? Because I never know WHAT I'm going to see......and it'll be like that for me for all the decades I intend to spend chasing and seeing stuff that is unique. Not better than, not worse than - unique.

KR

 

[davecarlsen]

Being much farther north, I can add that busting is just a realistic part of chasing. Tornado days are just that much less common north of 49.

For me, of course, the ultimate is a good tube, and I've seen my share of them, but I've also chased on days here when the cap just held and I got a sunburn. Such is chasing on the Canadian prairies. It seems I get a storm day for every 2 days of chasing, and a tornado day for every 10 or so. It's what I now expect.

But if I were to talk about my worst bust, one sticks out. And not because of a bad forecast. It was irresponsible driving.

I was chasing a dryline bulge just east of Saskatoon, SK in 2002 and did a piece of poor driving on a rural road, rolling my car. Thankfully, I was uninjured but the car was destroyed, costing me lots of $$. To boot, my friends went on with the chase (at my insistence) and saw the only tornado in Canada (that we know of) that day.

That one still sticks in my craw, but more because of my own poor driving (which I'll never repeat again!) I was upset about missing the tornado for about a week after that. Then I got over it. As was said before, there'll always be more storms.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I have to agree with Karen here...every chase is unique, as is every tornado. There will never be a tornado quite like Mulvane, but there undoubtedly will be one that is equally spectacular.

I think of Sunray, Texas June 9, 1971...on that day there was a very large stovepipe tornado with the same type of front-lighting as the Mulvane tornado...the tornado looked as if it was on fire. I'm not sure if it lofted the same amount of debris as Mulvane, but it was no less photogenic (IMO, it was more photogenic, if it is possible).

As far as busts are concerned, there are few days that will always stick in my mind:

April 7, 2002-was on the Throckmorton storm...picked wrong road...missed tornado.

May 15, 2003-watched the Dallam county storm form in NM on radar...ignored it for 2 hours...missed tornadoes.

May 29, 2004-SC KS was my target as far out as 3 days (didn't change the day of, either)...left a bit late...got suckered to OK storms...missed multiple photogenic tornadoes.

May 29th will irk me the most until I chase a storm as prolific and photogenic as that SC KS monster. The thing that bugs me is that I "busted" that day of all days. I would rather have busted on May 12th than that day...ugh.

As has been said, every season is a new season with new opportunites. So, it's all good.

 

[Joe Zemek]

compelling points

June 12, 2004: Mission Accompli.

Now what? Will I get the same satisfaction from anything less? I think not, but I don't think that matters any more. I think I can just get out there now and chase, without the feeling that there is something to prove to myself. There is still an abundance of desire in me, but not the sick feeling from the failures.

I don't ever need to exceed Mulvane, man. That was the ultimate.

Bob

I doubt that. How can you say that because you've seen Mulvane - that's it for you and nothing will ever exceed it? That sounds like tunnel vision! When talking about something as variable and inifinitely capricious as thunderstorms and tornadoes - how can you say that you will never see anything as stupendously-amazingly-beautiful as the Mulvane tornado?

[snip]

KR

Hmmm... I think you're both right, but I think Bob may have a different point when he says he doesn't need to exceed Mulvane. That's different from saying he never will exceed Mulvane. Maybe the comment about that experience being "the ultimate" reveals more his love of that event and the power of its memory than a belief that it was objectively the best ever. Our chasing needs evolve with each chase experience, right? (assuming shared motivation of chasing as personally fulfilling instead of, say, financially so) Mulvane fulfilled a chase need for Bob, and it seems to me that his attitude now is a good one: if his Mulvane experience sustains him, he will still chase with passion and energy, but will experience less frustration when things go wrong. At least, that's how I read it.

I am really into the philosophical element of chasing, and it's a wonderful life metaphor. Discovering chasing has helped me reevaluate life in general. Hmmm... I think this'll be a new topic.