Dan Robinson
EF5
I have always felt the need to start coming up with some reliable numbers on storm chasing risks. There are those overplaying and others downplaying the risk. Who is right?
I know that risk varies with different chase styles, the region chased, etc, but we have to start somewhere. Let's do that with getting some examples of fatality rates of other popular elevated-to-high risk leisure activities. These all have similar risk variables that storm chasing does, but they still come up with figures.
Whitewater rafting
www.americanwhitewater.org
The metric used in this sport is deaths per "person days". A person day is defined as a day in which an individual participates in the activity for any length of time. Their figures on death rates for guided expeditions (the ones most amateurs like you and me would do) is 6 to 10 per year for 2.5 million person days, or a maximum of 1 in 250,000 in the worst years.
The CNN story referenced in the above web site reports numbers as high as 50 deaths per year. The point made in the rebuttal is that most of those deaths are with non-guided rafters and kayakers.
Skydiving
Skydiving reports annual death rates averaging 21.3 per 3.3 million jumps, or one in 154,929. The "person days" will be lower than this (meaning more dangerous), how much depends on how many participants do multiple jumps per day.
Rock Climbing
This activity is harder to get an overall figure out of because death rates are assigned more to individual climbing sites (mountains, etc) than overall. However, a 2007 study referenced in the above link produced a figure of 1 in 320,000 climbs. Again, like skydiving, multiple climbs in a day will decrease the "person day" total (meaning more dangerous). This doesn't include the more extreme climbing like K2 and Everest that have death rates as high as 1 in 3!
Skiing
51 fatalities/year in 50 million "person days" (using the whitewater rafting term) results in an annual rate of 1 in 944,444.
Storm Chasing
To come up with a useful comparative figure, we need to adopt a similar metric as the other activities do. The whitewater rafting "person day" is easy to translate to chasing. That is, any day when a person chases for any length of time. So, the task is to figure out how many "person days" chasers collectively log annually.
The Spotter Network chaser count discussions we've had lately have been the only thing I can draw from, and those estimates still vary greatly. Refining those numbers will be key. If 90% of chasers beacon on SN, then we'd have something like 700-1,000 person days for every day during peak season just in the Great Plains alone. If the more liberal estimates are true, then we'd be looking at numbers between 7,000 and 10,000 person days daily for that same time period, again, that is Plains only. That's going to make for a huge variation in death rate estimates, but we'll do it anyway.
Right now I have no hard data on how chaser numbers increase through the season, but let's start with developing a formula to use with the various estimates. First, come up with a breakdown of the various time periods:
P = Peak daily chaser numbers in late May
Late May (16 days): Px16
Early May - Late June (30 days): Px30 / 3 = Px10
April (30 days): Px30 / 4 = Px7.5
March and July (62 days): Px62 / 10 = Px6.2
All other months (211 days): Px211 / 20 = Px10.55
Simplifying, we get:
Person days annually = Px50.25
That would give us a range of 35,175 to 502,500 person days in storm chasing annually. In the 14-year period since 2005, we know of 13 total deaths in the activity from both car accidents and tornadoes, or a little less than 1 per year average. That makes it easy to compare to the other activities once we can refine the chaser number issue. With that large of a spread in person day estimates, chasing could be either far more dangerous than the other referenced activities or on the safer side of the scale, with only skiing being the other "dangerous sport" that is safer than chasing.
So, it looks like to answer this question, we'll need to work on getting the Spotter Network ratio nailed down.
I know that risk varies with different chase styles, the region chased, etc, but we have to start somewhere. Let's do that with getting some examples of fatality rates of other popular elevated-to-high risk leisure activities. These all have similar risk variables that storm chasing does, but they still come up with figures.
Whitewater rafting
American Whitewater
The primary advocate for the preservation and protection of whitewater rivers throughout the United States and connects the interests of human-powered recreational river users with ecological and science-based data to achieve goals within our mission.
www.americanwhitewater.org
The metric used in this sport is deaths per "person days". A person day is defined as a day in which an individual participates in the activity for any length of time. Their figures on death rates for guided expeditions (the ones most amateurs like you and me would do) is 6 to 10 per year for 2.5 million person days, or a maximum of 1 in 250,000 in the worst years.
The CNN story referenced in the above web site reports numbers as high as 50 deaths per year. The point made in the rebuttal is that most of those deaths are with non-guided rafters and kayakers.
Skydiving
United States Parachute Association > First-Time & Student Skydivers > How Safe is Skydiving?
Explore meticulously researched data and industry trends to gain insights into the safety of skydiving.
uspa.org
Skydiving reports annual death rates averaging 21.3 per 3.3 million jumps, or one in 154,929. The "person days" will be lower than this (meaning more dangerous), how much depends on how many participants do multiple jumps per day.
Rock Climbing
Data on Climbing Accidents and Fatalities - All Climbing
From what I consider to be a somewhat morbid website, I was forwarded a link from Obit Magazine (yes, a website all about people dying, I don't care how they try to spin it) regarding a climbing death at Seneca Rocks, West Virginia last Fall. The author reflects on her death and how other climbers
allclimbing.com
This activity is harder to get an overall figure out of because death rates are assigned more to individual climbing sites (mountains, etc) than overall. However, a 2007 study referenced in the above link produced a figure of 1 in 320,000 climbs. Again, like skydiving, multiple climbs in a day will decrease the "person day" total (meaning more dangerous). This doesn't include the more extreme climbing like K2 and Everest that have death rates as high as 1 in 3!
Skiing
51 fatalities/year in 50 million "person days" (using the whitewater rafting term) results in an annual rate of 1 in 944,444.
Storm Chasing
To come up with a useful comparative figure, we need to adopt a similar metric as the other activities do. The whitewater rafting "person day" is easy to translate to chasing. That is, any day when a person chases for any length of time. So, the task is to figure out how many "person days" chasers collectively log annually.
The Spotter Network chaser count discussions we've had lately have been the only thing I can draw from, and those estimates still vary greatly. Refining those numbers will be key. If 90% of chasers beacon on SN, then we'd have something like 700-1,000 person days for every day during peak season just in the Great Plains alone. If the more liberal estimates are true, then we'd be looking at numbers between 7,000 and 10,000 person days daily for that same time period, again, that is Plains only. That's going to make for a huge variation in death rate estimates, but we'll do it anyway.
Right now I have no hard data on how chaser numbers increase through the season, but let's start with developing a formula to use with the various estimates. First, come up with a breakdown of the various time periods:
P = Peak daily chaser numbers in late May
Late May (16 days): Px16
Early May - Late June (30 days): Px30 / 3 = Px10
April (30 days): Px30 / 4 = Px7.5
March and July (62 days): Px62 / 10 = Px6.2
All other months (211 days): Px211 / 20 = Px10.55
Simplifying, we get:
Person days annually = Px50.25
That would give us a range of 35,175 to 502,500 person days in storm chasing annually. In the 14-year period since 2005, we know of 13 total deaths in the activity from both car accidents and tornadoes, or a little less than 1 per year average. That makes it easy to compare to the other activities once we can refine the chaser number issue. With that large of a spread in person day estimates, chasing could be either far more dangerous than the other referenced activities or on the safer side of the scale, with only skiing being the other "dangerous sport" that is safer than chasing.
So, it looks like to answer this question, we'll need to work on getting the Spotter Network ratio nailed down.
Last edited:
