Guys - Do You See a Loop-de-Loop?


Maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me, and I advise some commodity traders, so I would appreciate a "second opinion" from you bright, young studs here.

I just ran a loop of the latest GFS basic surface graphics. If I'm not mistaken, it shows this Rita low center coming inland, and then doing a complete 360 reversal - N over SE, TX, E over LA, turning back S, and then out over the Gulf again!

The tropical suites, while a few models back, had a couple of models doing some strange loops, now seem consistent w/ a plunge into the continent, to be swept up by the westerlies as usual, and then the low petering out.

I realize no commercial forecaster would ever go out on such a limb (they're all cautioning about a "stall" now), but is anyone else picking up on this?
Mike, some models have been showing this the past few runs, as the ridge strengthens north of Rita, thus forcing her to slow or stall. Some runs push the storm back to the south or southwest. Some of the newer runs now go back to the old solution -- the trough picking up the depression and moving it into the eastern US. This doesn't appear to be a favored solution right now. For the time being, it seems most likely that it'll wander around extreme western LA or eastern TX for the next few days.
There always seems to be a model that responds to the ridge differantly or suffers from feedback problems. The NOGAPS solution does loop TD Rita back around but not back into the GULF.
One model shows the hurricane looping back into the gulf and crossing Mexico...with it reforming in the Pacific
One model shows the hurricane looping back into the gulf and crossing Mexico...with it reforming in the Pacific

If the remnant low can survive a trip like that, the apocalypse is clearly nigh.
Wasn't it Ivan last year that did a loop around the entire eastern seaboard and reformed right off the coast on the Gulf of Mexico?
The Ivan revival last year is controversial. Ivan came inland in Alabama/Florida and moved on up into Virginia, with a lot of its moisture and energy being swept northeastward along a front. But a piece of the cloudiness did break southward, eventually getting carried around a high down the Southeast Coast and then west across Florida into the Gulf, where it developed a circulation. The National Hurricane Center made a decision to name it Ivan since it formed from some of the old storm. I called it "Ivan Jr." It made another landfall about right where Rita is coming in ... as a very weak tropical storm.

The debated point is whether there was a continuous circulation in the piece of Ivan that circled back.